The Philadelphia Eagles rested their starters in Week 18 of the regular season, giving them something of a bye entering the playoffs. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers also sat some of their players late in their Week 18 win against the Carolina Panthers after it got out of hand. Now, the Eagles will have to travel to one of the most difficult places in the NFL to play. In this article, you’ll find the NFL odds along with my pick and prediction for the Eagles vs. Buccaneers game.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers pick, prediction | Wild Card Weekend
- Spread: Buccaneers -8.5 (Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Moneyline: Eagles +300, Buccaneers -400
- Over/Under: 49
Tampa Bay’s home-field advantage
The Bucs have some of the widest home/road splits in the NFL this season. They recorded a 7-1 home record with a 6-2 road record. Overall, they boast a league-high 16.1 point scoring margin at home. That drops to 3.2 on the road in 2021.
Tampa Bay’s splits were drastically bigger earlier in the season, but they’re still averaging 6.1 more points per game at home than on the road. They’re also averaging .483 points per play at home as opposed to .417 outside of Tampa Bay.
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The Bucs’ splits are slightly more pronounced on the defensive side. They’re allowing 6.9 more points per game on the road than at home. Tampa Bay is allowing a league-low .262 points per play at home this season. That number balloons to .379 on the road, which ranks as roughly an average defense.
Tampa Bay is one of the most difficult matchups in the NFL when they’re at home, making this one of the most difficult matchups of Wild Card Weekend.
Eagles vs. Buccaneers betting trends
The Eagles have been neutral against the spread (ATS) this season. They own an 8-8-1 ATS record, although they’re covering by an average of 3 points per game. They’ve only covered in one out of their last four games, though.
The Bucs have been slightly better, recording a 9-8 ATS record thus far. They’re covering by an average of 0.5 points per game. With that being said, Tampa Bay’s posted a 6-2 home ATS record this season, covering by an average of 5.9 points per game.
These are two teams that lean toward the over in their games. Philadelphia has hit the over in 58.8% of their games, while Tampa Bay has found it in 52.9% of theirs. They’re combining to hit the over by an average of 3.3 points per game.
Eagles vs. Buccaneers prediction
This is arguably the worst matchup Philadelphia could’ve pulled in the Wild Card round. They focus heavily on their rushing attack, and Tampa Bay features one of the best run defenses in the NFL. They’re allowing only 88.4 rushing yards per game at home.
The only factor that makes this interesting is that the Bucs have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards to quarterbacks this season. Jalen Hurts has the ability to change games with his legs, and he could put the Eagles in an interesting position this weekend.
With that being said, this is clearly the Bucs’ game to lose in Tampa Bay. The question becomes whether they completely blow out the Eagles or not. I’m expecting Tom Brady and company to make a point in this game that they don’t need Antonio Brown. They aren’t a team that’s afraid to continue putting points on the board.
Eagles vs. Buccaneers Prediction: Buccaneers 31, Eagles 21