If you’re looking for Philadelphia Eagles vs. San Francisco 49ers DFS picks for Sunday’s much-anticipated NFC Championship Game, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
At their best, Philadelphia looks unbeatable. For DFS purposes, they have five guys who — if not for that darn salary cap — would belong in most lineups most weeks.
The big question as we will out our slate is not so much whether Jalen Hurts can hit 18+ points (he probably can), but whether his typically lukewarm passing attack will render his top three receivers risky at best, and avoidable at worst.
Because the Niners haven’t lost since falling to the Chiefs in Week 7 to drop to 3-4. During their current 12-game winning streak, San Francisco’s defense has given up 248 passing yards a game and a total of 16 passing touchdowns compared to 17 interceptions.
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To be fair, that’s somewhat generous yardage, and several of their opponents were low-end squads starting backup QBs.
But also in fairness, the Niners have clamped down in the postseason, and Hurts has thrown for 248+ yards only three times since Week 4. He averaged an impressive 8.5 yards per attempt while going 8-0. Since then, despite going 7-1, he’s averaged only 7.4 yards per attempt while throwing slightly more per game. He’s working harder, with less impressive results.
No doubt, I’m all in on Hurts in DFS. But can he feed more than one of his receivers? If not, should we risk guessing whose turn it will be to shine?
As alluded to above, San Francisco transformed after a blowout loss to Kansas City. At first, Jimmy Garoppolo did a better job holding onto the ball. He committed six turnovers in six games, culminating in that KC defeat. He didn’t commit another turnover after that.
Brock Purdy showed last weekend that he’s human, though he showed some great touch at key moments, and his modest turnover challenges (three in his first five games) have given way to a clean slate these last three weeks. Overall, Purdy remains one of the great stories of 2022. And we have to understand that he remains a high-priced DFS option with a relatively low ceiling in a tough matchup.
Of course, the acquisition of Christian McCaffrey contributed immensely to the 49ers’ midseason turnaround. That Chiefs game was his first in a San Francisco uniform, and he played just 23 snaps. More than any other Niner in DFS, McCaffrey is the centerpiece. If we believe San Francisco will be at least competitive, their prized RB should figure prominently.
Elsewhere, we’re faced with a dilemma similar to what we’re facing with the Eagles. Purdy is a low-volume passer, by design. If the Eagles jump out to a big lead, perhaps San Francisco’s offense will need to open up. But the surest path to victory lies with strong defense, a strong running game, and situationally savvy passing.
That leaves little room for more than one receiver to step up. Last week, it was George Kittle. The week before, Deebo Samuel dominated. And, of course, Brandon Aiyuk looms. All three are expensive. While any of these three could thrive, picking one over the other two would require a leap of faith.
Top NFL DFS Picks for Eagles vs. 49ers
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players.
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Captain: QB Jalen Hurts, Eagles ($16,500)
As of Friday, there’s plenty of chaos surrounding the 49ers’ backfield, as McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell have missed practices. Assuming they’re good to go, the rest of this lineup is good to go, beginning with Hurts in our Captain slot. He has the highest floor in the game, and even if he gets shut down through the air, his ground game is unparalleled.
Flex: RB Christian McCaffrey, 49ers ($11,400)
Of course. If McCaffrey is somehow limited going into Sunday, then we might recalibrate. For now, I’m all in as long as he’s all in.
Flex: TE Dallas Goedert, Eagles ($6,800)
It’s hard to say Dallas Goedert is undervalued, but I’m saying it. In a lesser receiving corps, and with a more pass-focused quarterback, he might have been the No. 2 TE statistically this season. As it stands, he’s a rock-solid DFS option at a reasonable price.
Flex: WR Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers ($5,800)
Hasn’t done much lately. Not an issue. Aiyuk remains the 49ers’ No. 2 WR and a top-three target with strong scoring upside. Philly has an elite pass defense, so I’m taking a chance here. But Aiyuk’s a relatively inexpensive risk, on the assumption Purdy will need to throw at least 25 times.
Flex: RB Elijah Mitchell, 49ers ($5,200)
Of course, this assumes Mitchell is a full go on Sunday. If he’s limited, I’d pivot to the slightly cheaper Robbie Gould. If Mitchell is out, go with Jordan Mason ($200), and then put A.J. Brown $9,200) in the final DFS slot with $100 to spare.
Flex: K Jake Elliott, Eagles ($4,200)
And if Mitchell is active without limitations, roll with him and — with $4,300 remaining — Jake Elliott. I like the strong possibility of San Francisco’s defense limiting the Eagles to no more than one touchdown. Elliott is adept from 50+. I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets 13+ points.
Whatever you decide, good luck.