We complained about the prime-time games last week, but a Super Bowl rematch (and preview?) is about as good as it gets for NFL betting.
This game comes with no shortage of angles for our same game parlay picks, so let’s dive in and end the week with a bang!
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs Odds
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Eagles +124. Chiefs -148
We here at Soppe HQ like to encourage responsible gaming, and in that vein, I’ll always offer you a trivia question off the top of these articles. Pose this question to a buddy you are watching the game with: answer correctly, and you pay for the SGP; misfire, and he/she is on the hook.
Trivia Question: Can you name three of the four players who caught a touchdown last season when these two teams played in the Super Bowl?
This season, Jalen Hurts and the Eagles have played four games against a team that either creates pressure at an above-average rate OR owns an offense that grades out top five in pass rate over expectation. Is that an ultra-specific set of qualifiers?
Yep! But stats are like jokes — the setup is great to have, but the punch line brings it all together. The Chiefs check both boxes: I’d argue that hitting either threshold puts the opponent in a good passing spot, but both?
- Hurts in four such games: 105 completions
- Hurts in five non-qualified games: 105 completions
Look anywhere, and you’ll see Isiah Pacheco lower in fantasy football rankings this week, given the respect for this Eagles run defense. I buy it, but the rushing props adjust for this difficult matchup. But what about the passing game?
The Eagles own the fifth-highest opponent aDOT this season, which is tied to their eighth-lowest blitz rate. It stands to reason — bring the heat less often, and opponents are more willing to get creative with route schemes. That doesn’t profile as a spot for a ton of dump-off passes to the running backs.
Jerick McKinnon has as many targets as rushing yards this season, making him a threat to be on the field more often in this game than his season-long numbers suggest should Kansas City give up on the run (PHI: 3.7 YPC allowed).
Pacheco has turned his last nine targets into just 26 yards and has been strangely more involved in the passing game when playing divisional opponents who have a good feel for their offense this season (13 catches in three games) than when not (11 catches in six games).
We need a third leg and, as it turns out, both of these teams are potent in the second quarter. The Chiefs are the top-scoring Q2 team this season and have scored in the top five in the second quarter in four of the first five seasons in the Patrick Mahomes era.
On the Philadelphia side, the Birds were held scoreless in the second quarter of the season opener and have put points on the board in every Q2 since. This leg is the “safest” of the three in this bet, but it does raise our payout by 43.7%
- Trivia Answer: The players with a touchdown catch in the 2022 Super Bowl were Travis Kelce, A.J. Brown, Skyy Moore, and Kadarius Toney (for Moore and Toney, they scored on their only target of the entire game)
- Same Game Parlay Pick: Jalen Hurts over 21.5 completions, Isaiah Pacheco under 16.5 receiving yards, both teams to score in the second quarter
- Odds: +365 (at DraftKings)
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