Even for a prime-time game, expect a lot of points in this Eagles vs. Chiefs game to wrap up Week 11 in what should be an exciting Super Bowl rematch. Will Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes repeat their incredible performances from the Super Bowl, and how should you be approaching player props for star players such as Travis Kelce and A.J. Brown? Let’s dive into our favorite Eagles vs. Chiefs player prop bets.
Top Eagles vs. Chiefs Player Prop Bets To Target
Jalen Hurts Player Props
- Passing Yards: 236.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Pass Touchdowns: 1.5 (Over +110/Under -140)
- Rushing Yards: 36.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer: +125
- Interceptions: 0.5 (Over +100/Under -130)
Blewis: Jalen Hurts appears to be much healthier coming out of the bye week, as he is reportedly no longer wearing a knee brace. Even when he was limited by his knee injury the last three games, he still had 25 total rushing attempts. Prior to this three-game stretch, Hurts was averaging 10.5 rushes per game.
There’s a chance the Chiefs come out with a better game plan to contain him in the running game, but Hurts had 15 carries for 70 yards against them in the Super Bowl. I’m expecting to utilize him as a runner again in this one, especially if they continue to struggle to get D’Andre Swift going.
Pick: Jalen Hurts over 8.5 rushing attempts (+100 at ESPN BET)
DeVonta Smith Player Props
- Receiving Yards: 55.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Receptions: 5.5 (Over +130/Under -180)
- Longest Reception: 21.5 (Over -110/Under -120)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer: +190
Soppe: I’m electing to target Smith in this spot instead of fading A.J. Brown, but the data I’m about to present could be used to go in either direction.
Over the past month, here are the yardage totals for WR1s against the Chiefs and what that player has averaged this season against the rest of the NFL:
- Tyreek Hill: 62 yards (126.8 yards otherwise)
- Courtland Sutton: 29 (51.1)
- Keenan Allen: 55 (105.0)
- Courtland Sutton: 46 (51.1)
That’s a small sample and only a piece of the puzzle, but it’s interesting.
Coinciding with the shutting down of WR1s by KC has been Smith quietly getting back to form. Over his past three games, he has caught 93.3% of targets and averaged 14.2 yards per catch (first six games: 62.2% catch rate and 11.9 yards per catch). He’s clearly trending up in the right direction, and let’s not forget that it was Smith, not Brown, who led this team in catches, targets, and receiving yards when these two teams met in the Super Bowl.
Pick: DeVonta Smith over 56.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)
A.J. Brown Player Props
- Receiving Yards: 84.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Receptions: 6.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
- Longest Reception: 26.5 (Over -110/Under -120)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer: +120
Blewis: Soppe mentioned the stats from WR1s in recent games against the Chiefs, and that certainly doesn’t work in Brown’s favor here, but he is a matchup-proof wide receiver. Hill obviously is as well, but I’m confident in Hurts having a better day against this Chiefs defense than Tua Tagovailoa had in Germany.
The Eagles have a very top-heavy pass-catching unit, and that is even with Dallas Goedert in the lineup. When Goedert missed time last season, none of their tight ends really stepped up in the passing game, and instead, Hurts’ favorite weapons got even more targets.
The Hurts-to-Brown connection has been stronger than ever, and this game sets up to be a back-and-forth contest. Since their sideline argument in Week 2, Brown has gone for over 6.5 receptions in all but one game.
Pick: A.J. Brown over 6.5 receptions (-120 at ESPN BET)
Patrick Mahomes Player Props
- Passing Yards: 285.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Pass Touchdowns: 2.5 (Over +165/Under -240)
- Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
Blewis: I don’t need to give you any stats to tell you how good Patrick Mahomes is, but you might not be aware of how favorable this matchup is for him. OK, you probably do, considering you watched the Super Bowl just nine months ago.
The Eagles are 32nd in passing touchdowns allowed per game and 26th in red-zone defense. In their last two games, they allowed a combined seven touchdown passes from Sam Howell and Dak Prescott. With these odds on Mahomes to throw for over 2.5 touchdown passes, it almost seems too good to be true.
Rashee Rice Player Props
- Receiving Yards: 43.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
- Receptions: 4.5 (Over +122/Under -165)
- Longest Reception: 18.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer: +190
Soppe: The rookie has seen at least one red-zone look in seven of nine games this season and is facing the seventh-worst red-zone defense in the league. What’s not to like?
I love his usage when the Chiefs get in close, but his profile suggests that some splash plays are possible. Through 10 weeks, he ranks 13th in yards per route and fifth in average separation. Patrick Mahomes has a 127.4 QB rating when throwing Rice the ball, and I think Andy Reid is a smart coach — success at that high a level means scheming more things in his direction.
Pick: Rashee Rice anytime TD (+245 at DraftKings)
Travis Kelce Player Props
- Receiving Yards: 74.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Receptions: 7.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
- Longest Reception: 20.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer: -125
Blewis: The way to attack this Eagles defense is in the short-to-immediate passing game, so this sets up as a smash spot for Travis Kelce. We saw Kelce in the Super Bowl catch all six of his targets for 81 yards, including for a touchdown. Kelce hasn’t gotten into the end zone in his last two games, but he still remains one of the most dangerous red-zone threats in the NFL.
For the season, the Eagles have allowed five touchdowns to tight ends, tied for third-most in the NFL. They allowed Jake Ferguson and Logan Thomas to each score in the red zone against them in their last two games. I would be surprised if they keep Kelce away from scoring.
Pick: Travis Kelce anytime TD (-115 at DraftKings)
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