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    2024 Dynasty Mock Draft: When to Target Bijan Robinson, Puka Nacua, and Others in Superflex

    Preparing for your startup dynasty mock draft? Here's a look at how things could play out and strategy for roster construction.

    Your evaluation of individual players is, obviously, critical for fantasy football success. But your ability to evaluate your competition is just as important. By way of this dynasty mock draft, I aim to take the temperature of the industry – where can you expect the big-name players to go in this PPR setting?

    Of course, every draft is different, so make sure to stay on top of the news and keep your ear to the ground within your league circles. As for where things stand at this moment in time … let’s take a look.

    2024 Startup Dynasty Mock Draft | PPR SF

    1.01) Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles

    Entering 2023, the top tier of quarterbacks was a three-person list. As we enter 2024, two of those QBs are having to deal with things that could diminish the potency of their offense as a whole.

    The other added Saquon Barkley.

    Hurts has rushed four 10+ touchdowns in three consecutive seasons and has completed over 65% of his passes in two straight campaigns after failing to reach 61.5% in each of his first two years in the NFL. Simply put, you’re drafting the player at the most important position that carries the highest floor and a ceiling that rivals any in the game.

    Outside of that, there’s not much to like. Invest with confidence and know that, most weeks, you’ve given yourself an edge over the other 11 members in this league.

    1.02) Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

    In a “down” season, Mahomes had 30+ rushing yards or multiple passing scores in 75% of his games. He has averaged over 25 completions in five consecutive seasons and with consecutive Super Bowl titles, why would we have any reason to think that Andy Reid does anything but rely heavily on his star quarter?

    Mahomes may have as much support entering this season as he has had in recent memory (Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown were added this offseason to pair with Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce) and with his willingness to spread the ball around, that’s a huge plus.

    The well-above-average athleticism along with a career average of 7.9 yards per pass make him a rich man’s version of prime Aaron Rodgers – but with even more creativity in terms of play-calling.

    You could see Kansas City’s ability to achieve at a high level without requiring Mahomes to put up the numbers he did back in 2018. The Eagles aren’t going far without Hurts posting an elite fantasy season – the Chiefs could (they did last season) and that’s the driving factor behind my decision with the first overall selection.

    1.03) C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans

    Stroud set records as a rookie and the situation he finds himself in this season (and moving forward) is considerably more advantageous. As a rookie, his WR1 was a target in Nico Collins who hadn’t had experience being featured at that level while his WR2 was an undersized rookie in Tank Dell. Oh, and he was playing behind a well-below-average offensive line and a running back who picked up just 3.7 yards per attempt.

    Now, he has a connection with Collins and Dell. Now, he has a pair of productive veterans in Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon. Now, he has a year of NFL experience and the ability to refine his game.

    We rarely see a quarterback live in the cross-section of efficiency and upside as a passer before turning 23 years of age, but that is exactly what we have here. I understand that putting his name next to the potential GOAT at the position could be eye-opening, but he has elite potential and is six years younger than Mahomes. You can win now with Stroud. You can win next year with Stroud. You can (probably) win in 2030 with Stroud.

    1.04) Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills

    Redrafters are recoiling due to the Bills seemingly shifting their offensive philosophy and that makes sense in the scope of a single season. Joe Brady took over this offense in the second half of last season and regressed their pass rate over expectation the second he took over.

    Combine that with their offseason movement (departures of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis) and the worries are logical. But the same could have been said when the Chiefs moved on from Tyreek Hill, right?

    Heck, we can cross-sport this and say that LeBron James’ rosters in Cleveland weren’t always optimal, but he made it work. Allen’s versatility gives him that sort of potential and the cupboard isn’t exactly bare.

    Dalton Kincaid and James Cook are nice building blocks in this offense while Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir offer interesting upside. Allen is entering the prime of his career and has tightened up his passing metrics, the initial concern when he came out of Wyoming.

    Does he rush for 15 scores again? Probably not, but racking up 35+ total touchdowns per season feels like a safe bet, even as this offense undergoes some renovations.

    1.05) Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

    Chase has averaged 6.7 catches per game over the past two seasons and by scoring once every 7.6 catches through his first two seasons (I’m ignoring a lower rate last season that was the result of the Joe Burrow injury), this profile is nothing short of elite.

    I don’t view having a strong WR2 by his side (Tee Higgins) as anything to worry about, especially when you consider that Chase is consistently Burrow’s first read in scoring situations.

    His quarterback entered last season at less than full strength, so let’s cut him a break. After two games to ramp up, here are Chase’s rates over the next five contests:

    • 37.3% reception share
    • 48.5% reception yardage share
    • 50% reception TD share

    That sort of potential is rare and the ability to go through the majority (if not the entirety) of his career with a single quarterback is appealing to me when splitting hairs at the top of the board.

    1.06) CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys

    Is he the best receiver in the game? The debate could certainly be had, and with little target competition around him, he’ll be a threat to lead the league in targets for years to come.

    After hot-and-cold touchdown numbers throughout his career prior, at the end of 2023, we finally saw the Cowboys force-feed their alpha receiver in scoring situations. All he did was score 12 times in his final 11 games last regular season and while he didn’t find paydirt in the playoff loss, he earned a 29.3% target share despite the Packers doing everything humanly possible to discourage Dak Prescott from going this direction.

    I wouldn’t blame you if you wanted to make him the first skill position player off the board (for the record, me placing him behind Chase is the result of my confidence in Joe Burrow over Prescott), I wouldn’t blame you. If I had to pick a current player to hit 2,000 receiving yards in a season, Lamb is the guy.

    1.07) Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins

    Hill turned 30 years of age in March, but if you watched him last season and walked away thinking that he had lost a step, then we weren’t watching the same thing. His speed will naturally decline with time and it’s possible that last season was the best we will see from him, but there have been no signs of decline in any of his metrics.

    There have also been no signs that defenses can stay in front of him or slow his connection with Tua Tagovailoa. He was quoted this offseason as saying that Jaylen Waddle is the future of the Miami pass game and if that has your league mates scared, embrace it.

    He’s not wrong — Waddle is 3.5 years his junior — but that doesn’t mean Hill’s production falls off a cliff. I generally structure my dynasty roster to win now and remain competitive for the proceeding 3-5-year window – I expect nothing but top-shelf production from Hill over that stretch. Thus, he is a locked-in first-rounder for me.

    1.08) Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions

    The man has seen 310 targets over the past two seasons and his quarterback got inked to a four-year extension this offseason, positioning St. Brown to be among the reception leaders for the foreseeable future.

    With the league well aware of his talents last season, he increased his yards per catch by 15.5% while posting easily his highest scoring rate of his career. His profile is very much in line with Lamb (unquestioned WR1 with an established QB who plays indoors) and Hill (a high-scoring offensive environment courtesy of explosive teammates), a tier that some people still fail to put him in.

    Don’t make that mistake.

    I’d still prefer those two to St. Brown (Lamb profiles as a player with more scoring upside while Hill’s current QB is probably the last one he plays with for the remainder of his career), but the difference is slight.

    Would it surprise me if St. Brown was the top overall scoring receiver at some point during the Jared Goff era? Nope, not one bit. It’s possible that managers in your league let him fall a handful of picks from this projection and you should be foaming at the mouth for that potential discount.

    1.09) Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens

    The reigning MVP clicked with offensive coordinator Todd Monken in the first year of their relationship and with an added piece to the chess board, there’s no reason to think that changes any time soon.

    Some will view Derrick Henry as a potential hindrance to Jackson’s upside, but I’m taking the other angle. The idea behind the concerns, I presume, is the short-yardage role, but that’s not something that Jackson relies on the way a player like Hurts does. Only one of his seven rushing touchdowns (including the playoffs) last season came from inside of seven yards.

    MORE: 5 Dynasty Sleepers to Target This Offseason

    We saw him produce elite numbers with a goal-line vulture last season (Gus Edwards). While Henry is obviously more than that, his impact on the overall scoring equity of this offense far outweighs the rushing score or two that he takes off the plate of Jackson.

    As a passer, it stands to reason that Zay Flowers and Isaiah Likely have their best days in front of them, and it’s not as if Mark Andrews is declining in a significant way (his catch rate and touchdown rate in 2023 were both well ahead of his career norms).

    Jackson is entering his age-27 season and coming off his best season in terms of yards per pass attempt. He’s shown the ability to produce in a major way and it’s not crazy to think that his next five seasons could be more productive than his past five from a fantasy perspective.

    1.10) Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings

    There is simply no way to nitpick what Jefferson has been able to do through 60 career games.

    • 392 receptions
    • 5,899 yards
    • 30 touchdowns

    He’s been the most productive receiver in the history of the game through four seasons and while the shine is off of him a touch in redraft formats this season due to the uncertainty under center, don’t make that mistake in a long-term league.

    The skills are no secret and because of the extended shelf-life of receivers, a reset at the QB position is likely to occur at some point during the career of all elite receivers. What better way to do it than with a top-10 pick while Jefferson is approaching his prime?

    His high-end skill set should help promote accelerated growth for J.J. McCarthy, something that, if all goes right, will benefit him in a massive way down the road. Dynasty managers need to see the forest through the trees – the Vikings bottomed out last season and were able to grab one of the premier prospects at the draft, not a luxury that every team gets.

    Think about the Rams or the Jets – both teams have an elite receiver on their roster and an aging signal caller, but neither will (likely) be bad enough in the short term to lock up a promising prospect under center. That’s not to say that McCarthy is a future Hall of Famer, but he carries the type of potential that gives me reason to think that any minor downtick for Jefferson won’t last long.

    1.11) Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis Colts

    This selection requires a leap of faith given that we have less than four games of NFL experience to work with, but this profile is that of a league-winner.

    Yes, health needs to be factored into the equation because of the way he plays. But as small as the list of signal callers built like Richardson is, the one of such players missing time regularly is even smaller.

    • Daunte Culpepper: Seven missed games in his first five starting seasons
    • Cam Newton: Two missed games in his first five seasons
    • Josh Allen: One missed game over the past five seasons

    The potential reward far outweighs the risk profile for a quarterback like this, especially when you consider that the Colts re-signed Michael Pittman Jr. this offseason and then spent second-round draft capital on Texas star Adonai Mitchell.

    This is an offense positioned to threaten defenses at every level for the foreseeable future and that puts Richardson in a spot where he can produce video game numbers that prove to be a fantasy cheat code starting this September.

    You’re taking on some risk – but so did Bill Gates when he brought Microsoft to market.

    1.12) Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals

    Is it possible that we’ve forgotten how good this dude is after one injury-plagued season? He lit up the NFL for over 9,000 yards from the start of 2021 through the end of 2022, throwing for 69 touchdowns in the process and rushing for seven more.

    In a first-round pick, I want youth, pedigree, and franchise support. The first two boxes are checked by Burrow with a bullet and the third is also a strength. He has an elite receiver by his side in Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins remains in town – but don’t forget that this backfield is now void of a proven entity and that this defense was the worst yardage unit on a per-play basis a season ago.

    Burrow is as good a bet to combine production floor with ceiling as anyone at the position over the next 5-7 years and should inspire nothing but confidence as you take him off the board to build around.

    2.01) Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Arizona Cardinals

    If you were going to create a rookie receiver to garner first-round consideration in a dynasty startup, wouldn’t it be Harrison? From bloodlines and route versatility to a clear path to elite volume, he has it all.

    Kyler Murray is entering his age-27 season and figures to give Harrison stability at the quarterback position as he develops, and this offense is built to not only improve in 2024 but be one of the better offenses (assuming health) over the next five seasons given the youth of their primary options (Trey Benson was drafted in the third round to give them upside at the running back position in the post-James Conner era).

    Three of the top four all-time receiving yardage seasons by a rookie receiver have come in the past four years, and while projecting Harrison for the 1,400+ yards that those stars (Puka Nacua, Ja’Marr Chase, and Justin Jefferson) produced is ambitious, he’s ready to earn targets at a high rate from Day 1 and for a very, very long time.

    2.02) Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons

    This manager is on to something. By pairing Robinson with Richardson, this roster is positioned to both win now and sustain success for years to come. The former Longhorn racked up over 1,400 yards from scrimmage and scored eight times as a rookie – in a season where we all complained about his usage and couldn’t wait to fire Arthur Smith.

    Is it possible that will turn out to be the worst season of his young career? Health is always going to be a concern for anyone who plays this position, but the raw ability that was flashed last season is enough for me to throw caution to the wind the minute we get into the second round.

    Early talk out from the Atlanta Falcons is that the plan is to feature Robinson in Christian McCaffrey-like ways – I’m probably handcuffing him with Tyler Allgeier in the later rounds, but we could be looking at an outlier situation: a running back that can help a dynasty team sustain success over an extended period.

    2.03) Caleb Williams, QB, Chicago Bears

    What’s not to like? Pedigree? Check. Franchise buy-in? Check. Supporting cast? Check.

    Williams may be entering as favorable of a spot as any rookie signal caller in the history of the game and his NFL-ready skill set should allow him to thrive from Day 1 and for the next decade at a minimum.

    Williams at USC vs. Joe Burrow at LSU

    • Pass yards per game: 314.2 for Williams, 305.9 for Burrow
    • CMP%: 67.5% for Williams, 68.5% for Burrow
    • Pass touchdowns per game: 2.8 for Williams, 2.7 for Burrow

    Burrow’s receiving core was deemed elite in his second season after the Bengals drafted Ja’Marr Chase and he delivered 4,611 yards with 34 touchdowns. That may be a ceiling for Williams, but it is within the range of reasonable outcomes during his introduction to the NFL. That fact alone puts him in the first-round conversation for Superflex dynasty start-ups.

    2.04) A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles

    • Six games with a 30+ yard catch.
    • Eight games with double-digit targets
    • Consecutive 1,400-yard seasons

    I understand if you want to nitpick a bumpy road to the finish line last season (scoreless in his final six games and held under 60 yards in three of his last four games), but I encourage you to take a step back. This man has been nothing short of special since joining the Eagles and there is no reason to expect anything different as long as this offense is constructed around him and Hurts.

    Last season, there was one receiver in the NFL with 1,800 air yards and 100 yards after contact.

    It was Brown … and he had 215 yards after contact. He’s a near-impossible tackle when he gets running downhill, something Philadelphia can scheme up, and is as capable as any player at creating a poster moment in jump-ball situations.

    Erase the slow finish – you can count on Brown as he enters his age-27 season as a foundational piece to a successful dynasty team. No question.

    2.05) Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets

    Zagging when other managers zig can be an effective strategy in all formats and a Superflex dynasty league is no different. This manager was the only one to not address the QB position through two rounds and, as a result, has two skill positions that could well lead their position in fantasy points both this season and over the next five (Round 1: Amon-Ra St. Brown).

    There’s no right way to build a winner and this strategy worked out given the depth of the quarterback position. We’ve seen average running backs produce big numbers thanks to his offensive surroundings (2023 Gus Edwards comes to mind) – Hall was able to rack up the stats last season (1,585 total yards and nine scores) despite the team around him.

    2023 Jets

    At the very least, the short-term outlook is much more optimistic when it comes to the talent around Hall, but that’s not why he’s a worthwhile pick here. The fact that his abilities were able to shine in the darkest of offensive situations — months removed from an ACL tear — tells me that there is no real floor to worry about.

    It’s a gamble to invest heavily in this position in this format – it’s more of a gamble to let someone else in your league cash in on this sort of rare upside.

    2.06) Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins

    What a difference a season makes. Just 12 months ago, Tagovailoa was viewed as a liability – an asset that carried more risk than reward.

    He then suited up for every game and improved his completion percentage by 4.5 percentage points from 2022 on his way to leading the NFL in passing yards (4,624). The healthy campaign doesn’t completely erase the concerns, but the elite production certainly gives us confidence in taking on some risk.

    As the lefty prepares for his age-26 season, there’s plenty to like. He has access to a pair of game-breaking receivers who should be productive for the next handful of years and a developing run game that could prove to be elite. This offensive environment is going to rank among the 10 friendliest through the physical prime of Tagovailoa, something that should allow him to post strong numbers, even without much rushing equity.

    2.07) Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys

    If you’re going to take an elite receiver in Round 1, you’ll have to consider the QB position in the second round. There’s no better way to address the position than to select the man responsible for getting your star the ball!

    Prescott is entering his age-31 season, so it’s not as if his peak is ahead of him, but with 30+ passing scores and over 4,400 passing yards in each of his past three healthy seasons (13+ games played), the production appears safe.

    MORE: Free Dynasty Trade Calculator

    Dallas made it clear this offseason in how they addressed (or, more accurately, didn’t address) the running back position that their path to offensive success is on the right shoulder of Prescott.

    You’re getting a proven pocket passer who plays indoors and has one of the game’s best pass catchers at his disposal – yeah, that’s a profile I’ll happily invest in.

    2.08) Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers

    Now is the perfect time to buy Herbert’s fading stock. Yes, the Bolts rid their roster of their two primary receivers and brought in a run-oriented coach, but in a Superflex setting where upside at the QB position is treated as gold, you’re getting a nice discount here.

    Herbert has completed north of 65% of his passes every season of his career and, through four seasons, is throwing 2.7 touchdowns per interception. He has cleared 225 rushing yards in three of four seasons, showing us enough versatility to think that he can rank among the elite at the position once the roster around him settles.

    Will Herbert win you your league in 2024? Probably not, but dynasty leagues are a marathon – and this is a runner I want to invest in before his stock soars.

    2.09) Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets

    Rookies who open their careers with consecutive 80-catch 1,000-yard seasons are rare. Receivers who do it as a member of a bottom-of-the-barrel offense are borderline unheard of.

    What Wilson has overcome since being the 10th overall pick in 2022 cannot be overstated and while there are still long-term concerns under center, we should get a glimpse of what his true upside is in the short term with Aaron Rodgers healthy.

    You’re still buying a prospect profile at this point because the environment around him isn’t as stable as the others residing in the top 10 at the position, but with 34 NFL games of proof, there isn’t much risk involved – feel confident that you have a WR1 on your hands for both 2024 and moving forward.

    2.10) Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals

    This manager was the only one during this exercise to go with the QB-QB open (Round 1: Stroud) and that gives this team stability at the highest-scoring position. Murray comes with a wider range of outcomes than Stroud, but he is, in my opinion, the end of the QB tier that has a legitimate path to lead in fantasy points scored in the short term and that holds tremendous value.

    With stars in place at WR1 and TE1, Murray’s peak is likely yet to come. I love Murray in redraft leagues this year and entering his age-27 season, his long-term outlook is just as encouraging for a franchise that is on the rise.

    2.11) Puka Nacua, WR, Los Angeles Rams

    After a historic rookie campaign, Nacua’s production floor is as high as any 23-year-old in recent memory. We know the path to dynasty success is through the receiver position and nothing he did last season suggests that this is a risky investment.

    Of course, the age/health of Matthew Stafford is something that Nacua will need to negotiate with time, but receivers with a varied skill set like what we saw in 2023 have a way of overcoming uncertainty under center.

    With the world aware of Nacua’s talent, he still posted a 9-181-1 stat line on 10 targets in the playoff game against the Lions. This is not a flash in the pan – this is the first flash of a fire that will burn for years to come.

    2.12) DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles

    The manager with the first overall pick completes an Eagles stack, one that figures to be potent for years to come. Smith was inked to a three-year extension in April, ensuring that he will be a key cog in this machine that should continue to rank among the best in the league.

    Smith has cleared 1,000 receiving yards and scored seven touchdowns in each of the past two seasons, production that should be considered the floor as he nears his physical prime (turns 26 in November).

    KEEP READING: Superflex Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft

    The presence of A.J. Brown naturally caps his upside, but with evidence that Smith can be an elite option when given the chance (37.5% target share with 22.8 fantasy points in the Wild Card loss to the Buccaneers with Brown inactive), he makes for a great long-term asset that carries relatively little risk.

    2024 Dynasty Mock Draft Rounds 3-6

    3.01) Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, DET
    3.02) Rashee Rice, WR, KC
    3.03) Michael Pittman Jr., WR, IND
    3.04) Jordan Love, QB, GB
    3.05) Drake London, WR, ATL
    3.06) Jaylen Waddle, WR, MIA
    3.07) Christian McCaffrey, RB, SF
    3.08) Trevor Lawrence, QB, JAX
    3.09) Jonathan Taylor, RB, IND
    3.10) DJ Moore, WR, CHI
    3.11) Nico Collins, WR, HOU
    3.12) Brock Purdy, QB, SF

    4.01) Brandon Aiyuk, WR, SF
    4.02) Sam LaPorta, TE, DET
    4.03) Saquon Barkley, RB, PHI
    4.04) Tee Higgins, WR, CIN
    4.05) Terry McLaurin, WR, WAS
    4.06) Trey McBride, TE, ARI
    4.07) Travis Etienne, RB, JAX
    4.08) De’Von Achane, RB, MIA
    4.09) Jayden Reed, WR, GB
    4.10) Tank Dell, WR, HOU
    4.11) Kenneth Walker III, RB, SEA
    4.12) George Pickens, WR, PIT

    5.01) DK Metcalf, WR, SEA
    5.02) Deshaun Watson, QB, CLE
    5.03) Malik Nabers, WR, NYG
    5.04) Dalton Kincaid, TE, BUF
    5.05) Jayden Daniels, QB, WAS
    5.06) Davante Adams, WR, LV
    5.07) Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, SEA
    5.08) Jared Goff, QB, DET
    5.09) Mark Andrews, TE, BAL
    5.10) Kyle Pitts, TE, ATL
    5.11) Javonte Williams, RB, DEN
    5.12) Isiah Pacheco, RB, KC

    6.01) Rome Odunze, WR, CHI
    6.02) J.J. McCarthy, QB, MIN
    6.03) James Cook, RB, BUF
    6.04) Amari Cooper, WR, CLE
    6.05) Brian Thomas Jr., WR, JAX
    6.06) Xavier Worthy, WR, KC
    6.07) D’Andre Swift, RB, CHI
    6.08) Josh Jacobs, RB, GB
    6.09) Jordan Addison, WR, MIN
    6.10) Brock Bowers, TE, LV
    6.11) Zamir White, RB, LV
    6.12) Geno Smith, QB, SEA

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