The Miami Dolphins will face the Green Bay Packers in Week 13 on Thanksgiving. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Dolphins skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 13 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Tua Tagovailoa, QB
Tua Tagovailoa is the third quarterback this season to throw for 285 yards and three touchdowns in consecutive games this season (others: Baker Mayfield and Joe Burrow), posting top-10 numbers in both of those weeks.
The Raiders and Patriots aren’t exactly lockdown defenses, but Tagovailoa doesn’t have to apologize, and you could certainly argue that he’s yet to truly optimize the weapons at his disposal. The Packers boast a viable defense (eighth-fewest points allowed per drive this season), though they are vulnerable in an area of strength for this Dolphins attack.
Through 12 weeks, Green Bay ranks 24th in YAC allowed to opposing receivers. If there is a spot for the Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle tandem to rediscover their collective form from years past, this appears to be as good a spot as any.
The only thing working against this offense is Mother Nature. We could get a wintery mix in Lambeau with freezing temperatures. How impactful has the cold weather proven in the past?
Tua Tagovailoa in games under 40 degrees:
- 6.3 yards per attempt
- 2.4% touchdown rate
Tagovailoa in games over 40 degrees:
- 7.8 yards per attempt
- 5.3% touchdown rate
I’m weighing the favorable matchup data over projected weather as we sit here today. That could change as we near kickoff and the forecast becomes more accurate, but barring significant winds, I’m unlikely to knock Tagovailoa outside of my top 10 at the position.
De’Von Achane, RB
That’s five straight games with at least 6.5 PPR points as a pass catcher for De’Von Achane as this offense appears motivated to cater to what their explosive RB1 does well.
His two touchdown receptions last week against the Patriots were artistic. Remember the Frogger episode of Seinfeld where George is systematically navigating New York traffic with the machine? That’s what these Achane screens and quick hitters remind me of, as the Dolphins excel at timing it and setting up their blockers.
Of course, that episode ends with George ultimately losing the game, and that’s where this comparison falls flat — I’m not sure defenses are fast enough to stop these plays when it is run to perfection. Achane has finished four of his past five games as a top-10 fantasy running back; with the Packers’ defense ranking 27th in EPA against the run, I don’t think this is a roadblock in the slightest.
I think this is a competitive game, but even if it were to slant in either direction, Achane is essentially script-proof. That is the driving force behind him being my top-ranked running back for Week 13.
Jaylen Wright, RB
The Dolphins used a tricky reverse that featured a no-look pitch from Tua Tagvailoa to Jaylen Wright last weekend, something that is proof positive that they want to explore what this explosive rookie can do.
It’s going to take more than gadget plays for Wright to trend near the Flex radar, but he’s pretty clearly working ahead of Raheem Mostert, and that makes him a De’Von Achane handcuff at the very least.
It’s probably too late into the season for Wright to carve out a role that is going to give him enough stand-alone value to ever project as a strong start for me, but this team is in desperation mode, and it wouldn’t shock me if we saw more creative designs like this moving forward.
Raheem Mostert, RB
Raheem Mostert was Miami’s David Montgomery a season ago, but those days are gone. Long gone. The veteran back played 30.3% of the Dolphins’ snaps in last week’s one-sided win over the Patriots, and while that is an uptick over his recent usage patterns, I view it as a net negative.
His time on the field doubled due to a blowout — I don’t want to be harsh, but that tells me that this team doesn’t value his snaps in a meaningful way. The three games before last week were more competitive, and in those contests, something that I think is much more representative of what we see on Thanksgiving, the trends were pointing in the wrong direction:
- Week 9 at Buffalo Bills: 23.3%
- Week 10 at Los Angeles Rams: 15.1%
- Week 11 vs. Las Vegas Raiders: 14.1%
Miami appears interested in getting rookie Jaylen Wright more work, but they’ve shown zero interest in going back to the man who found pay dirt 21 times just a season ago. I’m perfectly fine with you holding a De’Von Achane handcuff on your bench — Mostert just isn’t the right way to do that, and he is far from a must-roster player at this point.
Jaylen Waddle, WR
It’s possible we saw Jaylen Waddle unlocked last weekend against the Patriots. Not only did he give you 6.5 more points in a single game than he had in his previous three games, but our expected points metric backed up the spike performance (16.5 expected points; Weeks 1-11: 8.0 expected points per game).
Even more encouraging was the fact that the production didn’t come by accident — Waddle was responsible for 89 of Tua Tagovailoa’s first 159 passing yards in the victory, totaling 118 yards in the first half alone. His touchdown was scored on a play-action read where Tagovailoa zipped the ball into a tight window — it almost felt like 2023!
Of his 8-144-1 stat line, seven catches and 130 yards came when Miami wasn’t blitzed, something that figures to regularly be the case on Thursday night given that the Packers bring the heat at the sixth lowest rate.
I’m not willing to overlook the ugly first three months of this season for a single good game, but I do have Waddle tucked into the back end of my WR2 rankings this week, landing him in the same range as other turkey day pass catchers like Jayden Reed and Jameson Williams.
Tyreek Hill, WR
Updated at 6:55 PM ET on Thursday, November 28
Hill is active for tonight's game.
That 80-yard touchdown that Tyreek Hill scored in Week 1 feels like a lifetime ago. That was the last time Miami’s WR1 had a catch that gained more than 30 yards, a drought that I would have told you was close to impossible if you prompted me in August.
But here we are. Now what?
I think we are OK and let me tell you why. During Miami’s three-game win streak, they’ve brought Hill closer to the line of scrimmage. His aDOT in those games is down 44.7% from the first nine weeks. While some people would sweat that and read it as a ceiling suppressant, I don’t mind it given the rest-of-season schedule.
- Thursday at Green Bay Packers: 23rd in YAC prevention
- Week 14 vs. New York Jets: fifth
- Week 15 at Houston Texans: 27th
- Week 16 vs. San Francisco 49ers: 18th
- Week 17 at Cleveland Browns: 30th
If the ‘Fins are going to make a point of getting the ball in Hill’s hands on shallow routes as opposed to running him vertically, these teams (with the exception of the Jets) are going to have to tackle well above their current metrics to stop him from putting up some big numbers.
I’m hanging in there. At the minimum, I think we see Hill post his third top-25 finish of the season. We saw last week that Miami is more than happy to pick at a weakness if it’s working (Jonnu Smith and Jaylen Waddle combined for a 50% target share last week against the Patriots).
Jonnu Smith, TE
Think about where you were three months ago. If you’re anything like me (thoughts and prayers if that’s the case), you were knees deep in your rankings with your draft only hours away.
What is the target share going to look like in Cincinnati with Joe Burrow back? Can Derrick Henry score 20 touchdowns? Is this the year of Kyle Pitts?
All of those thoughts, at one point or another, kept me up at night. I think about this stuff as much as anyone, and I can assure you that at no point in my millions of racing thoughts in August, did I think that Jonnu Smith would be one of two players this season to post consecutive 6-85-1 receiving stat lines through 12 weeks (other: Garrett Wilson).
The veteran tight end had an 11-yard grab on Miami’s first offensive snap last week and was responsible for five of Tua Tagovailoa’s first seven completions, a run of production that included a seven-yard score.
Tagovailoa has struggled to get both of his All-Pro receivers involved, but he’s clearly comfortable with what Smith offers. And with Miami needing to be nearly perfect to qualify for the postseason, I don’t see any reason to think things change.
The Packers are a below-average red-zone defense, opening the door for Smith to get you to the finish line, even if the volume were to regress.