The Miami Dolphins will face the Buffalo Bills in Week 9. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Dolphins skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 9 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Tua Tagovailoa, QB
I thought Tagovailoa looked as good as you could have realistically hoped for in his return to action last week. We saw his impact on this offense as a whole right off the bat (two double-digit gains on the first two plays), and we got the vintage dime to Tyreek Hill, a 30-yard dot down the right sideline on an early third down.
Not everything is going to be perfect, especially behind a shaky offensive line. But against the second-lowest blitz defense in the league, I have enough confidence to plug in Tagovailoa this week in most formats.
The Bills excel at defending the perimeter, and I think that will help fuel their postseason success against teams like Pittsburgh and Houston. But Miami’s motion might render that strength useless and result in them chasing the Dolphins’ burners as opposed to locking them down.
There’s plenty of risk in this play, and Buffalo owns the fourth-best red-zone defense in the league. But if you’ve waited out this situation, I think you have to call his number in what shouldn’t be a bad weather spot and has a game total approaching 50 points. Right now, I have Tagovailoa tiered with Jared Goff, Bo Nix, and Caleb Williams as the end of the tier of QBs I’m comfortable starting in Week 9.
De’Von Achane, RB
De’Von Achane looked like the fantasy rockstar he was as a rookie last week with Tagovailoa back (16 touches for 147 yards and a touchdown). And for as long as his starting QB is under center, I’m not sure why we’d expect Achane to be anything other than a top-10 player.
The Bills are likely to provide some resistance (seventh-fewest yards allowed to running backs after contact this season), but we saw Achane’s versatility on full display last week, which puts him in position to return solid RB1 numbers on Sunday across all formats.
You took it on the chin during Tagovailoa’s absence; it’s time for your loyalty to be rewarded handsomely.
Jaylen Wright, RB
The explosive rookie has caught the eye of Dolphin fans, and with their season trending in the wrong direction, there is a groundswell to get him more involved. That’s all fine and dandy, but it would take a drastic change in philosophy from this coaching staff to make him roster-worthy.
- 33.3%
- 8.8%
- 4.7%
Those are Wright’s snap shares in Weeks 6-8, respectively, since Raheem Mostert returned to the field. Keep Wright’s name in the back of your mind should an injury occur — or even for 2025. But in terms of current fantasy value, there is none to speak of.
Raheem Mostert, RB
Mostert played 33.8% of Miami’s snaps in Week 7 and saw that rate increase to 46.9% last week, a game in which he punched in a score on Tua Tagovailoa’s return to action.
What we saw last week is about what I think we can expect moving forward: 9-12 touches with a reasonable amount of scoring equity. That’s not the profile of a must-start option, but with injuries and byes to consider, a role like that can find its way into your Flex spot.
The Bills are the sixth-best red-zone defense, and that has me more out than in on Mostert. I’d rather go to the other sideline and start Keon Coleman if pressed for a Flex decision.
Jaylen Waddle, WR
In the much-awaited return of Tua Tagovailoa, Waddle managers were left disappointed.
- 2024: 8.3 PPG, 4.4% under expectation, and 17.6% target rate
- Week 8: 8.5 PPG, 12.7% under expectation, and 17.6% target rate
It’s almost eerie how similar those numbers are. Is Tagovailoa more a vessel for Tyreek Hill returning to form than Waddle?
I’m not sure I’d go that far, but Hill certainly was the priority against the Cardinals, and I’m expecting that to be the case until proven otherwise. It should be noted that Waddle had a pair of drops last week, receptions that, if made, paint a very different picture.
In my opinion, there’s a pretty clear target hierarchy in Miami. That doesn’t mean that Waddle can’t have an impact, he’s a borderline WR2 for me this week, but it does take some of the shine off of his potential. The Bills hardly blitz (16.1%, second lowest), and I think that’s a good spot for Waddle to rack up the receptions underneath as Buffalo shades coverage toward Hill.
Without the drops last week, we are looking at roughly 13 PPR points, a number that essentially mirrors my projection this week.
Tyreek Hill, WR
Tyreek Hill didn’t exactly rediscover his 2,000-yard-pace dreams with Tua Tagovailoa back, but it was good to see him get loose for his first 25-yard catch since Week 1. Hill was targeted on the second and third passes of Week 8, picking up 21 yards in the process.
The vintage Hill performances feel inevitable as long as QB1 is on the field, which means you’re starting him weekly. I worry some that the majority of his targets this season (56.9%) have come on the perimeter, as that is the teeth of the Bills’ defense, but that’s not enough concern to slip him any further than WR9 in my weekly rankings.
Jonnu Smith, TE
That’s now three straight games with four catches and six targets for Smith, an interesting profile given the trajectory of this Miami offense with Tua Tagovailoa under center.
Smith was on the field for a season-high 67.2% of offensive snaps last — that’s what has my attention. The Dolphins bring a third receiver on the field for just 35% of snaps (second lowest, Ravens), thus indicating, to me, that they officially view the big tight end as their third pass catcher.
Does that lock in viable usage? It doesn’t. We’ve seen this team be as concentrated as any in the league when their duo of star receivers is healthy. However, I’m willing to stream and find out as a cheap way to bet on Tagovailoa.
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills Insights
Miami Dolphins
Team: Much has been made of the Dolphins’ ability to play on the East Coast as the weather turns—they don’t play another true East Coast game on the road until Week 17 (at Cleveland and at New York to finish the season).
QB: In his return to action, Tua Tagovailoa completed 28 passes, his most in a game since Week 8 of last season.
Offense: Miami averaged 5.9 yards per play on Sunday, their best mark since Week 1, the only other Tua Tagovailoa full game. In Weeks 2-7, they picked up just 4.4 yards per play.
Defense: The average NFL team records a sack on 21.5% of dropbacks in which they create pressure. Through eight weeks, Miami is 12.3%, the second-lowest in the league (Atlanta).
Fantasy: De’Von Achane produced 56.1% over expectation in the return of QB1 – in the four games Tagovailoa missed, his rate was 39.1% below expectations.
Betting: Miami covered 13 of Tua Tagovailoa’s first 19 starts in November or later. They have been 5-9 ATS in such spots since, with three straight failures to cover (outscored 103-40 across those games).
Buffalo Bills
Team: The Bills are coming off of a stretch where they played four of five games on the road – three of the next four are in front of #BillsMafia (Chiefs in Week 11 and 49ers in Week 13).
QB: In Week 2, James Cook ran for 78 yards and two touchdowns on 11 carries while the Bills had the ball for under 24 minutes. That combination of events resulted in Josh Allen failing to throw multiple touchdown passes for the first time in 14 career games against the Dolphins.
Offense: The Bills scored a touchdown on 9.1% of their drives in the blowout loss to the Ravens in Week 4. They followed that up with a 16.7% rate in Week 5, 33.3% in Week 6, 36.4% in Week 7, and 40% in Seattle last week.
Defense: Buffalo has the fifth-highest pressure rate when bringing the heat (48%), a strength they carried over from last season (47.3%).
Fantasy: Including the playoffs, Allen has cleared 21 fantasy points in 11 of 14 career starts against the Dolphins, five times surpassing 33 points (most recent: Week 3, 2023).
Betting: Each of Buffalo’s past three covers against the Dolphins have checked in under the total (31-10 win in Week 2 with a 49-point closing total).