The Miami Dolphins are one of the fastest teams in the NFL, and that includes their backfield.
Running backs De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert both excelled for fantasy football managers last season, blazing into and beyond opposing secondaries pretty regularly. They’ll be joined in the running back room by Jaylen Wright and Jeff Wilson Jr.
The Dolphins’ running back situation will be a tough one to predict until the games start, so fantasy managers will want to be sure they’re keeping the right pieces while letting others fall down their draft board.
Let’s examine the fantasy outlook for Achane, Mostert, Wright, and Wilson Jr.
De’Von Achane’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR fantasy Points: 270.4 (232.5 Non-PPR)
- Rushing Yards: 1122.5
- Rushing Touchdowns: 11.2
- Receptions: 37.9
- Receiving Yards: 276.4
- Receiving Touchdowns: 4.2
It’s hard not to get excited about what we saw from Achane last season and his fit for this Greatest Show of Surf offense. In the first month of his career, Achane had a 55+ yard carry in three straight games, something that doesn’t happen by accident; not to mention, he only had 37 carries across those weeks.
The upside is undeniable. It’s Jamaal Charles-type upside, a running back who averaged 5.4 yards per carry for his career and was as valuable as any asset in our game for three years (2012-14). Do we get to that level in 2024?
I’m not betting on it. Achane’s second-round ADP is reasonable, meaning you’re going to have to pay for that potential.
Maybe the distribution of touches leans Achane’s way, but I have it being close. Anything close to that scenario makes his draft slot of RB8 closer to a ceiling than a realistic expectation for me.
I’d rather take my chances on Travis Etienne Jr. a few picks later, but in most cases, I’m targeting a receiver at this point in the proceedings. If I can land a Tier 1 running back in the first round and a receiver like Michael Pittman Jr. in the second, I’m doing it as opposed to going with a Tier 2 receiver (my top tier is five WRs long) alongside Achane.
If I had to pick a non-Tier 1 RB to post the biggest stat line of 2024, Achane is on the shortlist, if not atop it. He’s nothing short of lethal when in open space, and given the speed on Miami’s roster, there’s no reason to think this coaching staff can’t scheme to his strengths.
– Kyle Soppe, Fantasy Football Analyst
Raheem Mostert’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR fantasy Points: 219.4 (185.1 Non-PPR)
- Rushing Yards: 907.2
- Rushing Touchdowns: 8.8
- Receptions: 34.3
- Receiving Yards: 230.9
- Receiving Touchdowns: 3.1
Before last year, Mostert never averaged more than 12.5 fantasy points per game. In his first year with the Dolphins, he averaged 17.9 ppg and finished as the overall RB4.
At the ripe young age of 31, he set career highs in just about everything. Despite a mere 53% opportunity share, Mostert totaled 1,187 yards and a league-leading 21 touchdowns.
The touchdowns were the bulk of Mostert’s fantasy value, but it’s unfair to characterize him as a touchdown-only player. He was legitimately a good running back.
Mostert averaged 5.1 yards per touch, 17th in the league. Of his carries, 6.7% went for 15+ yards (sixth in the NFL), and his evaded-tackles-per-touch rate was 24.8% (seventh). In Mike McDaniel’s friendly offensive scheme, he thrived.
I wonder how often a running back who finished inside the top five had an ADP outside the top 24 the following year. Outside of injury-related reasons, there’s a legitimate chance it’s never happened. Yet, that’s exactly where we are with Mostert, whose ADP sits at RB24, No. 74 overall.
Conventional wisdom suggests there’s some sort of catalyst for Mostert being drafted so far below where he finished last season… but there isn’t. His offense situation is the same. Achane now has a year of experience, but that would warrant a mild drop in ADP, not 24 spots.
– Jason Katz, Fantasy Football Analyst
Jaylen Wright’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR fantasy Points: 121.9 (103.3 Non-PPR)
- Rushing Yards: 612.4
- Rushing Touchdowns: 3.4
- Receptions: 18.6
- Receiving Yards: 185.8
- Receiving Touchdowns: 0.5
Fantasy managers should not look at Wright as a serious threat to Achane or Mostert. If things go well for the Dolphins, the rookie will finish the season with fewer than 50 touches.
Unfortunately, football is a violent game. Players get hurt. The overwhelming likelihood is that at least one of Achane or Mostert will miss time. Miami doesn’t want to get caught without a running back capable of operating within their system. Additionally, Mostert is 32 years old. This is where Wright comes in.
Wright is a 21-year-old rookie who ran a 4.38 40-time. He has elite speed and burst, exactly what the Dolphins need out of their running backs. In his final collegiate season, Wright carried the ball 137 times for 1,013 yards.
This is a player capable of explosive plays. The problem, as we’ve established, is opportunity.
Barring something happening to Mostert or Achane between now and Week 1, Wright is going to open the season with little to no opportunity. There’s simply no reason for any running back other than Mostert or Achane to touch the ball while both are healthy. But the moment something happens to one of them, Wright is going to be a popular waiver wire pickup. You can get out in front of that by drafting him.
The problem with drafting Wright is he carries an RB47 ADP. While the upside is there, that is awfully high for a player who is his team’s RB3.
– Jason Katz, Fantasy Football Analyst
Jeff Wilson Jr.’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR fantasy Points: 71.9 (59.1 Non-PPR)
- Rushing Yards: 378.0
- Rushing Touchdowns: 1.9
- Receptions: 12.8
- Receiving Yards: 84.4
- Receiving Touchdowns: 0.2
With more than 12 appearances just once, asking Wilson to be a fantasy asset on a team with two breakout running backs from last season and a fourth-round pick in Wright is a bit optimistic.
He’s been an efficient back when given the opportunity, but without a path to usage, that really doesn’t matter. Tua Tagovailoa led the league in passing last season – this is an explosive offense that can withstand injuries without blinking.
– Kyle Soppe, Fantasy Football Analyst
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