This is a mismatch in many different ways, but by embracing the variance at the quarterback position in New York, we are able to build out some creative same game parlay picks and approach +400.
Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets Odds
Dolphins -520, Jets +390
We here at Soppe HQ like to encourage responsible gaming, and in that vein, I’ll always offer you a trivia question off the top of these articles. Pose this question to a buddy you are watching the game with: answer correctly, and you pay for the SGP; misfire, and he/she is on the hook.
Trivia Question: Who leads this all-time series in wins (115 meetings)?
You could bet the Dolphins moneyline, win some lunch money, and be on your way. But today is Black Friday. We are out here trying to find some deals and some values to help with the holiday season!
I do want Dolphins exposure, so I’m targeting them in the first half as Tim Boyle takes his lumps in his first start of the season. Sportsbooks are projecting the Jets to score six first-half points, so the bar for Miami to clear is a low one to cash the first leg of this ticket.
The Dolphins have scored at least 14 first-half points in eight of nine games played on U.S. soil this season, and they obviously have the potential to do much more damage should the Jets turn the ball over.
Now we get gritty. On the Jets’ side of the ball, what is the most likely game script? In my opinion, we are looking at low-risk plays in an effort to keep Miami off the field and potentially abandon the run game should this thing go sideways.
In that vein, let’s take a look at the Week 11 usage.
Following the waiving of Michael Carter, the Jets moved Dalvin Cook into that pass-catching/third-down role and activated rookie Israel Abanikanda to assume the more traditional “backup RB” role behind Breece Hall, Cook’s previous role.
Cook wasn’t exactly involved on the ground in a significant way anyway (under five carries in every game since early October), and those few reps might be a thing of the past. When it comes to game script, if this game is one-sided late, what do you think is most likely to occur?
- Jets go pass-heavy
- Jets turn to develop Abanikanda
- Jets put more tread on the tires of Cook (1,600+ career touches)
Order them however you’d like, but I’m assuming that third option is least likely for all rational thinkers!
When they take to the air, it figures to be boring, and boring means Tyler Conklin. The pride of Central Michigan has at least three grabs in seven of his past nine games, and we get a minor discount in price thanks to a low usage Week 3 loss to the Bills. Miami’s path to losing this game is giving up big plays, not six-yard routes to a 254-pound tight end, so I anticipate Conklin being used as an extension of the run game.
- Trivia Answer: Despite losing the first eight meetings, the Dolphins hold a slim 58-56-1 all-time edge over the Jets.
- Same Game Parlay Pick: Dolphins 1H (-6.5), Dalvin Cook under 10.5 rushing yards, Tyler Conklin over 2.5 receptions
- Odds: +390 (at DraftKings)
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