Dolphins vs. Chiefs Player Prop Bets: Picks Include Tua Tagovailoa, Isiah Pacheco, and Rashee Rice

Our top Dolphins vs. Chiefs player prop bets include picks for Tua Tagovailoa, Isiah Pacheco, and Rashee Rice.

In a matchup featuring two high-powered offenses in the Miami Dolphins and Kansas City Chiefs, weather could be a factor in making this a lower-scoring game than you would think. With an expected wind chill well below zero degrees at kickoff, how should that change your approach when making your player prop bets? Let’s dive into our top Dolphins vs. Chiefs player prop bets.

Top Dolphins vs. Chiefs Player Prop Bets

Tua Tagovailoa Longest Completion Under 34.5 Yards (-114 at FanDuel)

Blewis: Considering their injuries on offense, the matchup against a great Chiefs defense, and the freezing cold temperatures and high winds we’re expecting, this sets up as an easy matchup to fade Tua Tagovailoa.

But his passing yards and passing touchdown props are very marked down and present very little value in taking the under. So, let’s go in a different direction.

In four games against playoff teams away from Miami this season, Tua didn’t have a completion for 35 or more yards on a combined 91 pass attempts.

When these teams met in Germany earlier this season, Tua had only one completion for greater than 20 yards on 34 attempts. I’m not expecting it to go much differently this time around.

Isiah Pacheco Over 18.5 Receiving Yards (-114 at FanDuel)

Soppe: In the regular season, Miami ranked fourth in pressure rate but also missed the sixth-most tackles. To me, that shouts dump-off passes.

Could Kansas City opt to go with a run-heavy approach a la Buffalo in its December dismantling of Dallas? It could happen, but we know Andy Reid wants his quarterback to hold the team’s fate in his hands, so I’m tempted to project plenty of dropbacks for Patrick Mahomes in this spot.

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Assuming that is the case, Pacheco’s development as a receiving threat out of the backfield figures to jump off the screen.

He has caught at least three passes in all three of his games against top-10 pressure defenses this season — those little checkdown passes have connected in similar matchups, and if you’re telling me I get Pacheco’s running style in space with a 3+ reception projection, I’m thrilled with this leg of the SGP.

Mahomes’ aDOT dipped by 14.6% last postseason from the regular season, further proof that where Pacheco lives in the passing game could be featured in a significant way against Miami.

Rashee Rice Over 64.5 Receiving Yards (-110 ESPN BET)

Ben Rolfe: The Dolphins have been allowing an average of 177.25 yards to opposing WRs in the past four weeks. Last week, they allowed the combination of Stefon Diggs and Khalil Shakir to amass 192 receiving yards as the two WRs regularly found themselves in space.

The Dolphins’ pass rush struggled for consistency throughout the game, which meant Josh Allen was able to get his ball to the receivers down the field.

The main WR on show for the Chiefs is Rashee Rice. Sure, they will use others throughout the game, but Rice has become their main weapon of choice. He sat out last week but now appears to be healthy after practicing in full to open the week. Rice has topped 64 receiving yards in three of his last four games and four of his last six.

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