Dolphins vs. Chiefs Predictions and Expert Picks for the Wild Card Round: Take Patrick Mahomes and the Points Against Tua Tagovailoa?

Can Miami pull off the road upset in unfavorable weather conditions in Kansas City? Our betting experts make their Dolphins vs. Chiefs predictions.

Just a few weeks ago, the Miami Dolphins were firmly in the mix to have a first-round bye as the top seed in the AFC. Instead, they’ll be playing Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs in a game with less-than-ideal weather conditions for a South Florida-based team — with expected wind chill of -30 degrees.

In our Dolphins vs. Chiefs predictions, we break down the matchup and give out our best bets. But first, lets review the Dolphins vs. Chiefs odds for this prime-time matchup.

Dolphins vs. Chiefs Odds

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  • Spread
    Chiefs -4.5
  • Moneyline
    Dolphins +190, Chiefs -225
  • Total
    43.5

Dolphins vs. Chiefs Predictions and Expert Picks

Blewis: Not much has been going right for this Dolphins team lately. Not only have they lost their two best pass rushers for the season, but Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Waddle are banged up. They’ll be playing at Arrowhead Stadium in a very cold game, as the temperature at kickoff is supposed to be around 5 degrees.

This certainly doesn’t bode well for the Dolphins, especially given their struggles away from Miami against other playoff teams during the regular season — 0-5 with an average of 16.8 points per game.

But this spread has gone up way too much for me to feel comfortable laying the Chiefs, especially when they’re still being treated as if they’re last year’s team. This is the worst Chiefs team in the Patrick Mahomes era, and all season we have been waiting for them to flip the switch offensively and it hasn’t happened.

Considering the weather forecast for this game, and the away team’s struggles in this sort of environment, my favorite play for this game is the under. I got it earlier in the week at 44.5.

Pick: Under 44.5 (-120 at FanDuel)

Soppe: This game is begging for creativity, and given some of the recent trends, I think we can leverage uncertainty into a nice ticket.

In nine games against objectively above-average QBs (I’m drawing the line at Jordan Love/Jared Goff for the sake of this research), the Chiefs have scored exactly the same number of points that they’ve allowed in first quarters (34) — they are +51 the rest of the way in first quarters.

MORE: NFL Playoff Bracket

That holds with what we’ve seen from Kansas City in postseasons during the Patrick Mahomes era: an extended feeling-out period with a late surge.

On the other side, in Miami’s past seven games, the Dolphins are +33 in first quarters and +12 in all other quarters. They’ve been the reverse version of the Chiefs — they’ve peaked early and faded late. The Dolphins have entered games with strong schemes, but they have largely been unable to sustain their success after the scripted plays.

Pick: Dolphins +0.5 in Q1 (-118 at DraftKings) — pair it with the Chiefs moneyline and you get +210

Rolfe: I gave my thoughts on this game earlier in the week, and things have not changed really. Even with reinforcements, the Dolphins’ pass rush will not be able to get the pressure on Patrick Mahomes that they need to.

The Chiefs’ defense has been a really good unit this year, while this Dolphins group has its flaws. Give me the better defense and the better QB at home in tough conditions.

Pick: Chiefs -4.5 (-110 at ESPN BET)

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