Both DK Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba of the Seattle Seahawks rebounded from disappointing performances in Week 1 to look impressive last week.
So, which option for fantasy managers is the better choice in lineups for Week 3? Here is the fantasy outlook both Metcalf and Smith-Njigba.
Projecting D.K. Metcalf’s and Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s Fantasy Output in Week 3
In the Pro Football Network Start/Sit Optimizer, PFN’s Consensus Rankings say that Metcalf is the player to start. His projected 13.3 points include four receptions and 60 receiving yards.
That stat line narrowly outperforms the consensus for Smith-Njigba (13.1 points, six receptions, 55 receiving yards)
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However, when you isolate my rankings, I see Smith-Njigba outperforming Metcalf this week. Given his recent history, I feel Metcalf will have a difficult time matching his impressive Week 2 performance.
DK Metcalf’s Week 3 Fantasy Outlook
Fantasy managers who want to put Metcalf in their lineups to take advantage of his performance last Sunday certainly have ample reason for this decision.
After all, Metcalf went from a miserable three-catch, 29-yard performance in Week 1 (earning a paltry 5.9 fantasy points) to racking up 129 receiving yards on 10 catches and a touchdown in Week 2. He finished with 28.9 fantasy points, his second-most productive game in fantasy since the start of the 2022 season.
But there are reasons for fantasy managers to perhaps take a wait-and-see approach with Metcalf this week. For one, he has not had 100-yard receiving games in consecutive weeks in nearly four years — Weeks 8 and 9 of the 2020 season.
▫️ 22 catches
▫️ 246 yards
▫️ 102 yards after catchEvery JSN and DK Metcalf reception from Week 2. 🫴 pic.twitter.com/k7U5U7EGrX
— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) September 16, 2024
Second, as impressive as last week was for Metcalf, it was also the first time in his career he had a 100-yard receiving game in either Week 1 or Week 2.
Metcalf will also likely be defended by the Dolphins’ Jalen Ramsey, which should be a must-see matchup Sunday. According to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, since 2019, Ramsey has been the nearest defender in coverage on 29 targets to Metcalf.
The results of those 29 targets?
29 targets, 15 receptions (51.7% pct), 192 yards (6.6 yds per target), two touchdowns, two interceptions, 67.0 passer rating.
You can dissect those numbers any way you want, but Metcalf will have to work for his numbers on Sunday.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s Week 3 Fantasy Outlook
Quite simply, Smith-Njigba is coming off the best game of his NFL career last week against the New England Patriots. He finished with 12 receptions (on 16 targets) for 117 receiving yards, all career highs for the second-year receiver.
Naturally, Smith-Njigba also had the most productive game in fantasy in his career, earning 27.6 fantasy points.
As with Metcalf, there are legitimate concerns about starting Smith-Njigba in fantasy lineups. For one, while last week was his first career 100-yard receiving game, it was also just the sixth time in his career he had 50 receiving yards in a game.
And of the previous five times Smith-Njigba had 50 or more receiving yards, only once — Weeks 9 and 10 last season — did he have at least 50 receiving yards the next game.
However, with the Dolphins’ defense likely to give Metcalf a lot of attention, I think Smith-Njigba has an opportunity to take advantage and have a second straight productive game in fantasy.
Kyle Soppe’s Fantasy Outlook for Metcalf and Smith-Njigba in Week 3
Metcalf: What a difference a week makes. Metcalf had a 16% target share in Week 1 against the Broncos and easily finished as Seattle’s WR3 in terms of fantasy production.
I don’t think anyone truly pivoted off of him as a result of the season opener, but it was good to see him rebound to dismantle the Patriots to the tune of a 10-129-1 stat line. The big performance was highlighted by a 56-yard touchdown (32 air yards) on his first target courtesy of a broken coverage, a nice reminder that he is always one play away from breaking the slate.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s pending breakout isn’t something Metcalf’s managers should be sweating as long as Tyler Lockett’s downside coincides with it. JSN is going to continue to see the majority of his usage come near the line of scrimmage, thus leaving the door open for these big plays to continue.
That said, it is worth noting that, outside of the touchdown last week, Metcalf’s aDOT checked in at 9.4. His career number is 13.2 yards, and I’m projecting him to trend in that direction under Ryan Grubb, but the shorter targets have my attention in a good way – if I have shares of Metcalf, I’m happy to give up some ceiling potential to raise his projectable floor.
Smith-Nigba: Usually, a season breakout requires a few breadcrumbs. We are teased with potential and whiff a few times before, eventually, seeing our loyalty be rewarded.
Not here. The pride of Ohio State put himself on the weekly starter radar with on single game and did it against a strong defense that shut down the Bengals in Week 1.
- Week 2: 172 air yards
- First four career games in September: 38 air yards
Smith-Njigba was clearly worked into the script in a significant way (three of the first four targets and seven of the first 12) and his versatility was on full display, something the Seahawks had been hesitant to showcase before.
JSN was drafted as the WR2 in this offense and not only is that clearly the case, I have him considerably closer to WR1 than WR3. Miami ranks below the league average on short passes in terms of completion and touchdown percentage – these are the types of matchups where Smith-Njigba owns a nice floor. If the vertical routes we saw last week are here to stay, a top-15 upside is in his profile.
Stats in this article are from TruMedia unless otherwise stated