Seattle Seahawks WR DK Metcalf has turned his physical gifts into fantasy football points from the second he entered the NFL, even with varying levels of quarterback play.
Geno Smith regressed in a significant way last season, which stands to eliminate consistency from the profile of his WR1. But should Smith put together a season that looks anything like his impressive 2022, Metcalf could prove to be a fantasy league winner at cost.
DK Metcalf’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
When you look at Metcalf’s first five seasons in the NFL, there is certainly plenty to like.
He’s only missed one game over that stretch and has finished every season with at least 900 yards and six touchdowns. Three times, Metcalf has averaged over 15 yards per catch, and we have proof of concept when it comes to upside, as he has a pair of double-digit touchdown seasons on his résumé, along with 1,303 yards in 2020.
From a macro standpoint, Metcalf looks like a reasonable-floor/high-ceiling type of alpha receiver who is a safe investment…approach with caution.
Last season, Metcalf was the WR22 in PPR (points per reception) formats on a per-game basis. However, that ranking falls outside of the top 30 if you remove one game in which he lit up the Dallas Cowboys. Even in that game, Metcalf went for 3-107-2 in the first half and 3-27-1 in the second.
Remove that game and Metcalf’s per-game production falls behind Jordan Addison and is right in line with Aaron Rodgers-less Garrett Wilson.
DK Metcalf hitting single leg 42” box jump while holding a 15 pound medicine ball 😳pic.twitter.com/7jTSb4nfd0
— Football’s Greatest Moments (@FBGreatMoments) May 11, 2024
That’s well below what you were expecting, and I’m not sure it’s changing anytime soon. That Wilson comparison, in my opinion, is apt, as we have an elite receiver with a serious quarterback problem.
- 2013 with the Jets: 2.7%
- 2014 with the Jets: 3.5%
- 2022 with the Seahawks: 5.2%
- 2023 with the Seahawks: 4.0%
Smith’s breakout “they wrote me off and I wrote them back” 2022 season certainly appears to be an outlier. And even if you believe he’s an average quarterback, he lacks the consistency it would take for me to be overweight in Metcalf exposure, given that this roster has a trio of viable receivers.
Smith had three spike games last season (two came indoors), and that’s not nearly enough to overcome his low floor. During the fantasy season, he scored over 23 fantasy points in each of those outlier games but failed to reach 18 points in every other contest (four single-digit performances and another four under 14 points).
This isn’t a Smith article, but an iffy QB who has plenty of receivers to target, not to mention a two-headed backfield with upside, isn’t one that I want to bet on when it comes to getting any single pass catcher viable numbers consistently.
Metcalf is being drafted in the early portion of the fourth round as a low-end WR2, and by season’s end, I don’t doubt that his stat line will reflect a ranking like that. However, the week-over-week production will be maddening, and that’s not a profile I like locking into my lineup.
Don’t get me wrong, I’ll have plenty of Best Ball and DFS exposure to Seattle’s WR1. The next time Metcalf finishes outside of the top four in end-zone targets for a season, it will be a first.
You could say he ran cold on those targets last season (caught 6 of 19; for reference, Mike Evans caught 10 of 20 such looks), but I’d counter by saying that efficiency concerns are part of what you’re signing up for when selecting Smith’s top option.
Metcalf’s catch rate tanked from 63.8% in 2022 to 55.5% last season, and because I can’t justify projecting a bounce back, I’m not going to have many shares this season (give me Amari Cooper a handful of picks later every time).
Jason Katz’s Fantasy Analysis for DK Metcalf
I have Metcalf ranked as my WR24 and his ADP is WR20. All of these numbers are very close. Nothing about my ranking or projection of Metcalf screams “Don’t draft him.” But nothing screams “Draft him” either.
Given that I have the Seahawks projected for 572 pass attempts, it’s hard to envision me having undershot that. The path to Metcalf outperforming expectations is volume and efficiency.
I gave Metcalf a 24% target share. If that ends up being around 26-27%, Metcalf will be better than I projected.
I gave Metcalf a 60% catch rate. It’s possible he could be a bit higher, but his career catch rate is 60%, and he was at 55.5% last season.
I did reduce Metcalf’s yards per reception projection to 14.1, though. If that remains over 16, that’s another path for Metcalf to be better than he looks in the projections.
All of this is to say my modest projection does not render me out on Metcalf. Even though I have him ranked a bit lower than ADP, that’s a very tight cluster of receivers all valued very similarly. Metcalf has the talent and offensive situation to succeed. If you want to value him above where I have him, by all means, do so. The upside is definitely there.