After five straight weeks scoring under 10 fantasy points, can D.J. Chark provide for fantasy football managers in Week 16? Let’s take a look at Chark’s season so far, the situation in Jacksonville, and his Week 16 matchup.
D.J. Chark has struggled for fantasy managers in 2020
After averaging 15.1 fantasy points per game in 2019, expectations were high for D.J. Chark in 2020. Chark was selected as the 23rd wide receiver off the board in fantasy drafts, as managers hoped he could repeat that strong season. Unfortunately, that has not been the case, as Chark has seen his points per game drop to just 11.4.
Chark has struggled in all facets of the game
When you compare Chark’s numbers from last season with 2019, you can see why he has struggled. Chark has averaged around half a target less per game this season, but that has been compounded with a decrease in his catch percentage. In 2019, Chark caught 61.9% of his targets, which has dropped to 56.3%. On a per-reception basis, he is averaging 13.1 yards as opposed to 13.8, so when he catches the ball, he is doing a similar amount with it.
The issue has been the quarterback play.
Chark has had inconsistent play from his quarterbacks all season, and it has affected his efficiency. In 2019, Chark had a Fantasy Points Differential of 11%, but that has dropped to -10% this season. That is a great example of how the erratic QB play has harmed Chark from a fantasy perspective. He is not doing as much with his opportunities as he was in 2019.
The situation in Jacksonville has been a mess
The Jaguars have had three different QB start at least three games for them this season. Gardner Minshew has been the best of the three, but even he has struggled. Meanwhile, Jake Luton and Mike Glennon both threw more interceptions than they did touchdowns.
Minshew started the first seven games, and Chark scored double-digit fantasy points in four of the six games he played with Minshew under center. During the time Luton was under center, Chark managed to score double-digits just once. He did not achieve that with Glennon as QB and has not veered back into double-digits in the last two games with Minshew.
D.J. Chark has seen his consistency drop this season
Using Pro Football Network’s Consistency Score metric, we can see what the chopping and changing have done to D.J. Chark from a fantasy perspective. Chark had a consistent score of 4.79 last season, which was good enough for 15th at the position. However, in 2020, that has dropped to 3.14, which places him 44th at the position.
Should you start or sit D.J. Chark in your fantasy playoffs in Week 16?
Trusting D.J. Chark has been a tough thing to do in 2020. He has not been a reliable option, ranking 42nd in ppg in PPR formats.
Chark has not struggled for opportunities but has not capitalized on them
When a receiver is catching less than 55% of his targets but only has two drops, it is hard to blame him. Chark has seen plenty of targets, but the ball has simply not been getting to him. Some of that has been good coverage, but plenty has been due to bad QB play this season.
In the past four weeks, Chark has been targeted 29 times but has just 18.1 fantasy points to show for it. He has not been able to convert opportunity into fantasy success recently.
Week 16 sees a tough matchup for D.J. Chark
The Bears are not the matchup you want to have your receiver facing in Week 16. At 20 points per game, they allow the sixth-fewest per game and at 3.8, the third-fewest in the red zone.
The Bears pass defense allows opposing receivers just 11.6 receptions and 151.3 yards per game. Five wide receivers have had 100-yard receiving games against the Bears, so there is hope that Chark can succeed in Week 16. However, with just 11 receiving touchdowns allowed, his ceiling is capped.
In standard formats, the Bears defensive unit ranks in the middle of the pack (14th) in Pro Football Network’s Defensive Points Allowed Consistency Score. With a ranking of 10th, they are a slightly better matchup in PPR formats.
Should you trust D.J. Chark when it matters most in Week 16?
The biggest positive for Chark and his fantasy managers is that this matchup is in Jacksonville. In Chicago’s cold and potentially windy conditions, this would have “nightmare matchup” written all over it. At least in Jacksonville, the temperature is supposed to be relatively warm, with little risk of adverse weather. That negates some of the concerns about the matchup that Chark is facing.
Another positive is that this could be a tough matchup on the ground for the Jaguars. The Bears are a top-10 defense in yards per attempt. That will limit the impact of James Robinson on the game and force the Jaguars to pass more.
The only problem is that the Jaguars tend to distribute those targets around reasonably evenly. Six Jaguars players have more than 50 targets, including four over 60 targets. Chark is unlikely to see a 10-15 target day, limiting his ceiling.
Starting D.J. Chark in your fantasy playoffs in Week 16 is a huge risk. He has struggled for consistency all season, and he could put up a low number when you cannot afford it most. Chark is WR3/4 for me this week. If I have to use him, I will, but it will be with extreme caution given his struggles at times this year.
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