Miami Dolphins RB De’Von Achane was the single most efficient back in the NFL last year. However, he lacks the three-down upside at a position where volume is king. What is Achane’s fantasy football projection for the 2024 season?
De’Von Achane’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Fantasy points per game: 15.9
- Rushing Yards: 1,122
- Rush TDs: 11.2
- Receptions: 38
- Receiving Yards: 276
- Receiving TDs: 4.2
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 14. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Achane This Year?
Last season, Achane averaged 17.3 fantasy points per game and finished as the overall RB5 despite touching the ball just 11.8 times per game. That type of efficiency, while incredible, is also unsustainable.
As talented and explosive as Achane is, he’s not going to average 7.7 yards per touch again. On just 130 total touches, he scored 11 touchdowns. That, too, is unsustainable.
It’s also important to note that while Achane scored 51.3 points in Week 3, his season wasn’t as great for fantasy managers as it seemed. Let’s try and assess Achane’s rookie year in the proper context.
Injuries limited Achane to appearing in just 11 games, but it was really even less than that. He only saw 8% of the snaps in Week 2 and left Week 11 after just 4% of the snaps. In reality, fantasy managers only got nine games out of him.
In those nine games, Achane did exceed 20 fantasy points four times, not including his 50-point Week 3. He also had two games between 12 and 13 fantasy points, as well as two more in the single digits.
Over a 16-game season, Achane gave most fantasy managers four productive weeks (forgive me, but I’m assuming very few people started him in Week 3). So, how do we project him going forward?
My projections have Achane taking a substantial step forward in volume. I have him projected for 182 carries and 66 targets, putting him at 250 opportunities, 14.7 per game, up from 12.7 per game last season.
That gives Achane 1,095 rushing yards, 355 receiving yards, and 13.1 total touchdowns. At an average of 15.93 ppg, that puts him right in line with the PFN consensus.
When spending a first- or second-round pick on a running back, we’re typically looking for players with 300-touch upside. Achane, however, doesn’t possess that at all.
Raheem Mostert is not about to completely disappear. Plus, he projects to remain the primary goal-line back.
Achane’s projection lands him at RB10, but there’s not much separating him from the RB5 or RB14. Whether to draft Achane comes down to draft philosophy.
On the one hand, volume is king. The safest bets in fantasy football are running backs projected for heavy volume. Those are also the backs most likely to be elite RB1s. That’s not Achane.
On the other hand, Achane has already proven he can be an RB1 without volume. He’s the archetype of player who has game-breaking and league-winning upside. Achane is the type of back who can reach 2,000 yards without amassing 400 touches.
I’ve moved Achane up and down my rankings several times already. He’s been as high as RB7 and as low as RB17, which should give you an idea of how difficult he is to evaluate.
I settled on him at RB9, which puts him below the more established guys projected for larger volume, but ahead of the more questionable guys who lack Achane’s upside.
Derek Tate’s Fantasy Insight On De’Von Achane
If you believe in Achane, you will probably have to spend a second-round pick to get him on your fantasy squad in 2024. His current ADP is No. 20 overall, and he is the RB7 off the board.
Look, I love Achane’s fantasy ceiling in this Miami offense, but you would be drafting him ahead of guys like Josh Jacobs, Travis Etienne, and Isiah Pacheco at the RB position if you select him at that price point.
Not to mention, he is probably your RB1 on your fantasy team unless you go RB-RB, which means your team depends on his production to sustain an ideal weekly point total output.
De’Von Achane was a fantasy superstar this year when he was healthy.
Is he a top-10 lock at the RB position going into 2024 fantasy drafts? @KyleSoppePFN shared his thoughts on a recent episode of The PFN Fantasy Football Podcast⤵️⤵️ pic.twitter.com/TFNdU7PF2R
— PFN Fantasy (@PFNFantasy) January 19, 2024
If you want to swing for the fences, then Achane is a great candidate to emerge as a fantasy star in 2024. Yet, the presence of Mostert and Wright doesn’t exactly project him as a featureback in this offense, and his durability concerns also make him a risky pick at this price point.
Personally, the second round is probably a bit too expensive for me, but the upside is certainly present if you would prefer to build your roster with players who have elite upside.