It’s one thing to be the most efficient running back in the NFL. It’s another to do it as a rookie. That’s what Miami Dolphins running back De’Von Achane did last year on his way to an RB1 season.
With his efficiency certain to regress, will an expected increase in volume keep Achane as someone fantasy football managers should draft this season?
De’Von Achane’s Fantasy Profile For the 2024 NFL Season
How do you want to view Achane’s rookie season? You can tell whatever story you want.
Objectively, Achane is clearly incredible at football. No one will argue that. However, talent is only part of the fantasy football equation. The other two pieces are situation and opportunity. The former is also excellent. The latter … not so much.
Achane averaged 17.3 fantasy points per game (ppg) and finished as the overall RB5 as a rookie. But he only touched the ball 11.8 times per game. You don’t need me to tell you he’s not going to average 7.8 yards per carry again.
Raheem Mostert was and remains the goal-line back. Yet, Achane scored 11 touchdowns. That is also bound to regress.
While fantasy managers will point to Achane’s 51.3-point Week 3 effort as heavily influencing his ppg average, again, you can tell the story you want.
Injuries limited Achane to appearing in just 11 games, but it was really even less than that. He only saw 8% of the snaps in Week 2 and left Week 11 after just 4% of the snaps. In reality, fantasy managers only got nine games out of him.
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In those nine games, Achane did exceed 20 fantasy points four times, not including his 50-point Week 3. He also had two games between 12 and 13 fantasy points, as well as two more in the single digits.
At the same time, that’s a lot of missed time for a back that is in danger of earning the injury-prone label. How many games Achane will play this year remains a concern.
Is Achane a Good Fantasy Pick?
Achane is one of the most polarizing players in fantasy this season. On the one hand, he very clearly has an overall RB1 upside.
He’ll be just 23 years old this season and displayed elite efficiency as a rookie. A modest increase in volume plus an outlier touchdown season would be all it takes.
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On the other hand, what is going to change? Achane’s efficiency will come down, at least a bit. Raheem Mostert’s role will remain strong. He had a 53% opportunity share last season. The Dolphins also drafted Jaylen Wright, who will reportedly have a role.
Can Achane reach 20 ppg on 12-14 touches per game? I highly doubt it. He will need to see a larger increase in volume, which is definitely possible.
I have gone back and forth all summer between being all in on Achane and lukewarm (I’ve never been out — he’s too talented). Right now, I have him at RB8. He’s worth drafting anywhere beginning in the middle of the second round.
There’s nothing safe about drafting Achane. He is the upside play. If you are a risk-averse drafter, then I would probably look elsewhere. If you want to swing for the fences, then Achane is your guy.
Kyle Soppe’s Fantasy Analysis for De’Von Achane
Achane’s second-round ADP is reasonable, meaning you’re going to have to pay for that potential. Raheem Mostert’s birth certificate suggests he turned 32 years old in April, but he’s the rare player whose “football age” is lower than his actual number.
Mostert, career: 674 regular-season carries
Najee Harris, career: 834 regular-season carries
Harris was a high school senior when Mostert made his NFL debut. I’m not calling Mostert a bell cow, but he sits ahead of Achane on the current depth chart and had a career-best 236 touches last season.
These two backs accounted for 26-27 touches per game in 2023, and that’s a reasonable expectation for 2024 (don’t sleep on Jaylen Wright being drafted in the fourth round).
Maybe the distribution of touches leans Achane’s way, but I have it being close. Anything close to that scenario makes his draft slot of RB8 closer to a ceiling than a realistic expectation for me.
I’d rather take my chances on Travis Etienne Jr. a few picks later, but in most cases, I’m targeting a receiver at this point in the proceedings. If I can land a Tier 1 running back in the first round and a receiver like Michael Pittman Jr. in the second, I’m doing it as opposed to going with a Tier 2 receiver (my top tier is five WRs long) alongside Achane.
If I had to pick a non-Tier 1 RB to post the biggest stat line of 2024, Achane is on the shortlist, if not atop it. He’s nothing short of lethal when in open space, and given the speed on Miami’s roster, there’s no reason to think this coaching staff can’t scheme to his strengths.
I’m generally a conservative drafter in the first handful of rounds. I prefer to take role/volume risks in the middle rounds, which is my plan entering 2024. That’s not to say that you can’t structure a high-floor draft around the selection of Achane in Round 2; it’s just not the path I’m looking to walk down.
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