One of the hardest questions for fantasy football managers to answer is when they should give up on a struggling starter. De’Von Achane and D’Andre Swift were expected to be weekly starters in the preseason but have failed to live up to expectations so far.
Entering Week 5, can managers rely on either running back this weekend?
Unless otherwise stated, all stats are courtesy of TruMedia.
Should You Start De’Von Achane or D’Andre Swift in Week 5?
In the Pro Football Network Start/Sit Optimizer, PFN’s Consensus Rankings narrowly give Achane the edge. His projected 12.8 PPR points include 53 rushing yards and two receptions for 13 yards. Swift is projected for 12.5 points.
The razor-thin margin is fitting considering the two backs have essentially posted the same stat line this year. Both have 53 rush attempts with one rushing TD, with Achane averaging 3.1 yards per rush and Swift averaging 3.0. NFL Next Gen Stats suggests both have underperformed their offensive environment as well. Achane ranks last in rush yards over expected (-88), while Swift is second to last (-58).
This is absolutely no reason to fully panic on De'Von Achane, as these stats obviously need lots of context layered in
but still interesting the company he keeps on the advanced rushing stuff so far this year. Five of the six widely regarded worst rushers in the NFL, and Achane pic.twitter.com/4EsgjFmZym
— Sam Sherman (@Sherman_FFB) September 23, 2024
With this being a 50-50 call, Swift is the slightly superior option given the better matchup and encouraging signs of life from the Chicago Bears running game last week.
Achane and Swift’s Fantasy Outlook this Week
Achane and the Miami Dolphins face the New England Patriots, who rank 18th in fantasy PPG allowed to running backs (17.6). Swift gets a juicier matchup against the Carolina Panthers, who have given up the second-most fantasy PPG to RBs (26.4).
Swift also finally broke out for his best game of the season in Week 4 vs the Los Angeles Rams, becoming the first player this season to record 70 rushing and 70 receiving yards in a game. Most encouragingly, his share of the offensive snaps bounced back up to 67% after declining to 52% in the Week 3 loss to the Colts.
After being heavy criticized for the first 3 weeks of the season, I’m happy to see D’Andre Swift have a great performance in Week 4 against the Rams. On the ground he had 93 yards on 16 carries. He also had 72 yards receiving on 7 catches.
On this play, Swift is patient in his… pic.twitter.com/rLs58WSBH1
— Charles “Chux” Maranan (@ChuxMaranan) October 2, 2024
The Panthers have given up a TD to a running back every week this season, with four backs recording at least 70 scrimmage yards and a TD. Overall, Carolina has allowed seven TD to running backs this season, tied for second-most behind only the Dolphins (eight).
On the flip side, Achane started the season strong and was the RB4 overall through two weeks. Unfortunately, it’s impossible to take season-long context into account due to the Dolphins morphing into a JV offense with Tua Tagovailoa sidelined. Over the last two weeks, Achane has been the RB51 in fantasy as the entire Miami offense has become unplayable.
In addition, Achane could soon receive more competition for touches with Raheem Mostert potentially returning from his chest injury:
Dolphins HC Mike McDaniel tells reporters WR Odell Beckham Jr. (knee) and RB Raheem Mostert (chest) could play Sunday vs. Patriots with modified reps. Will be determined after watching them in practice today.
— Cameron Wolfe (@CameronWolfe) October 4, 2024
Even in the best of times, Mostert’s monopoly over the goal-line work put a cap on Achane’s fantasy ceiling. In 2023, Mostert took 20 out of Miami’s 30 carries from the five-yard line or closer. Achane has gotten four out of those five carries to begin the 2024 season, but saw Tyler Huntley score on a designed QB run last week.
Achane remains the better rest-of-season option given how he produced with Tagovailoa in the lineup, so fantasy managers need not panic or sell their stock. However, while Swift remains a risky play given how the Bears run game looked the first three weeks, almost any clear starting running back is a superior option to the current state of the Miami offense.