Is Devin Singletary a must-start in fantasy with Zack Moss out?

To put it mildly, Devin Singletary’s fantasy football output has been fine at best to start the 2020 season. With a total of 16.40 fantasy points in half-point PPR formats, he may not have hurt your team just yet, but he hasn’t exactly helped you win your first two weeks either.

The lack of production was to be expected, however, after the Buffalo Bills selected running back Zack Moss in the third round of the 2020 NFL Draft. To start the season, the two backs have split the snaps almost evenly. Moss, however, has already been ruled out for Week 3 with a toe injury. Does this make Singletary a must-start in all fantasy formats for this week?

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Devin Singletary gets a huge fantasy boost with Moss out

With the Bills adding Moss in the draft, despite having a limited number of picks to work with after acquiring Stefon Diggs, the writing was on the wall some that this would turn into an even backfield. In fact, heading into 2020 fantasy drafts, Moss became the more favorable and valuable of the Bills’ backfield in the eyes of many fantasy managers.

To the surprise of no one, this backfield has been split pretty evenly through the first two games. Singletary has been on the field for 57.4% of the snaps, whereas Moss has been on the field for 45.3% of plays. Through two weeks, Singletary has 19 rushing attempts for 86 yards, along with seven receptions for 43 yards. Moss has 17 rushes for 48 yards and three receptions for 16 yards and a touchdown. Add in the fact that QB Josh Allen has contributed 18 rushing attempts of his own, and it’s clear that this has been a committee backfield.

With Moss now scheduled to miss Week 3, Singletary will receive the bulk of touches out of the backfield. It’s very reasonable to believe that he will see 20+ touches against the Los Angeles Rams. Although Allen will still get some of his yards on the ground as he typically does, this is the first week of the 2020 season where you should feel comfortable starting Singletary in your fantasy football lineups.

Lack of opportunities have hurt Devin Singletary’s fantasy production thus far

Singletary is not a player we expect to boom for us as fantasy managers. He’s a player that typically needs a high workload in order to be a consistent RB2 in fantasy. And in the second half of 2019, that’s exactly what he was.

From Week 8 on, Singletary saw no less than 66% of snaps in any game played. During that span, he saw an average of 17.56 touches per game. Although he finished the season with just four total touchdowns, Singletary looked poised to become Buffalo’s workhorse with Frank Gore out of the picture.

However, Moss being drafted changed all of that, and with Allen’s effectiveness as a runner, his fantasy ceiling has been capped to start the year. The lack of opportunities have been less than stellar for someone who most fantasy managers selected to be their RB2 in lineups.

One bright spot, however, is that Singletary hasn’t looked bad in the opportunities he’s been given. His Consistency Score (CS), which determines how consistent a player is for fantasy with the opportunities they’re presented, has him tied for RB22.

That makes him a back-end RB2 in terms of fantasy production, which really should come at no surprise. As I mentioned previously, Singletary is not a player we should expect to have breakout performances, but he does provide consistent production with the opportunities he’s given.

However, this is not what fantasy managers were looking for when they drafted him in the fifth or sixth rounds of fantasy football drafts. Although Singletary’s CS score could be seen as reasonable, his Fantasy Points Differential (FPD) to start the year has been atrocious. FPD is the percentage difference between a player’s final fantasy point output and their expected fantasy points (xFP). As of right now, Singletary is RB60 in this metric at -23%.

Part of the reason Singletary has been so disappointing is simply the expectation we had for him going into 2020 after his success last season. With Moss in the picture, however, and this moving to a more even split backfield, those expectations are going to have to come down.

You can feel comfortable starting Singletary for one week at least

There are certainly questions surrounding the Bills’ backfield for the future, but for one week at least we can rest easy. Singletary is – dare I say – a must-start for Week 3. With Moss out, I’d fully expect to see him receive the 20+ touches I mentioned previously.

In addition, this is a good matchup for Singletary. The Rams may be off to a hot 2-0 start, but they have allowed two big games from Ezekiel Elliott and Miles Sanders, respectively, in the process. Buffalo didn’t really need Singletary or Moss last week in their win against Miami with the passing game working so well. At one point, Allen had so much time in the pocket that it looked like he was prepping dinner as he waited for his receivers to get open.

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That’s not going to be the case this week, however, and the Bills are going to have to involve their run game if they want to improve to 3-0. Even though his potential for a touchdown is limited with Allen involved so much in goal-line situations, I’m optimistic in regards to Singletary’s fantasy output for Week 3.

I would also recommend Singletary as a DFS option on both DraftKings ($4,900) and FanDuel ($5,900) this week. With a high number of touches expected to come his way, Singletary should easily exceed value at those price points.

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