What do these trade rumors mean for the future of Derek Carr?

As of this morning, the Las Vegas Raiders have not officially said whether or not they intend to retain Derek Carr as their starting quarterback for the 2020 NFL season. With Carr coming off of arguably the best season of his career, you would think that this would be one of the easier decisions by the Raiders front office this offseason. However, the trade rumor mills are in full force with the mutterings of Carr being “heavily shopped” around at the 2020 NFL Combine. 

So what’s the holdup? Raiders head coach Jon Gruden and general manager Mike Mayock have publicly touted their support for Carr, but have yet to issue an official statement. Carr is still under contract with the Raiders until 2023, but if they were considering an upgrade at quarterback, this would certainly be the year to do it. This offseason is undoubtedly a QB-centric one with big names in free agency and an impressive draft class. There have also been whispers that six-time Super Bowl winner Tom Brady is interested in the Raiders starting QB job. 

Do the Raiders need a QB upgrade?

Carr was drafted by the Oakland Raiders during the second round of the 2014 NFL Draft as the 36th overall pick and has been the starting quarterback ever since — the only rookie quarterback in franchise history to start a season opener. He has played fairly consistent over the years averaging a 90.7 QBR and holds several franchise records including highest completion percentage and passing yards. Carr is also fresh off of the best season of his professional career with 4,054 passing yards for 21 touchdowns and only eight interceptions with a QBR of 100.8. He ended the regular season as QB26 with an overall PFN OSM grade of 20.82.  

According to PFN’s Offensive Share Metric, Carr played strong over the span of the 2019 regular season. His most productive game day performance came in Week 1 against the Denver Broncos with 29 completions for 391 yards, one touchdown, and an Elite OSM grade of 40.70. The majority of his games on the season resulted in a 20+ OSM which is Good production for an NFL quarterback. 

Carr’s NFL Next Gen stats also looked good last season compared to other quarterbacks. His 4,054 passing yards were the eighth-most in the league. Carr’s completion percentage of 70.4 is second only to Drew Brees and his 100.8 overall passer rating is ninth. Across the board, Carr seems to be towards the top of the individual metrics for NFL QB’s in 2019. It’s important to point out that Carr put up all of these numbers last season without a true WR1 after all of the mishaps with Antonio Brown.

But, for all of Carr’s solid career stats, there is another one that can’t be ignored. Carr has 55 losses as a starting quarterback in his six seasons in the NFL. This is the second-most number of total losses by any NFL quarterback through their first six seasons in history. Some argue that this number is not all on Carr’s shoulders, however. With lots of moving parts in the franchise since Carr was brought on board, including three head coach changes, it’s hard to give him all of the blame for the losses on his record.

It’s unlikely that the Raiders move on from Carr without a firm commitment from a capable replacement. However, on Wednesday, $2.9 million of Carr’s salary for this season becomes guaranteed. So if a trade were to happen, expect news out of Las Vegas this week. The Chicago Bears, Indianapolis Colts, and Washington Redskins are all in the quarterback market this offseason and are possibilities for a Carr trade. But with everything being under a smokescreen in Las Vegas right now, it could really go any direction. 

Ultimately, Carr has been a consistent QB for the Raiders. But it’s been a long time since Raiders fans have seen the post-season success that they want. Could a change at quarterback be the difference-maker? Or are there other positions that should take priority? Over the next couple of weeks, we will know for sure the direction that the Raiders front office wants to move with the future of the franchise.