The undefeated Miami Dolphins host the winless Denver Broncos in a 1 p.m. affair on CBS.
As of Friday, the Dolphins, who have gone on the road to beat the Chargers and Patriots in the season’s first two games, were 6.5-point favorites over the Broncos, whose two losses are by a combined 3 points.
Denver Broncos vs. Miami Dolphins Game Preview
The Dolphins are aiming for their second 3-0 start in as many seasons and 16th 3-0 start in the team’s nearly six-decade history. The last time the Dolphins started 3-0 in consecutive seasons, the Spice Girls were all the rage.
Miami is 12-2 in its last 14 at Hard Rock and 8-1 all-time at home against the Broncos. This is just the 21st meeting between these teams, with the Dolphins holding a 12-7-1 edge in the all-time series.
Seven Broncos-Dolphins Stats From Inside Edge
Stat: Tua Tagovailoa has thrown for 5.7 yards per attempt when pressured by defenders since the 2022 season — eighth-best of qualified quarterbacks. The Broncos have pressured opposing QBs on just 18.7% of passing plays since the 2022 season — third-worst in the NFL.
Analysis: The Dolphins’ offensive line has allowed just four quarterback hits in the season’s first two games. It helps when Tagovailoa gets the ball out in 2.35 seconds — fastest in the league.
"9 times in his career Tua Tagovailoa has beaten up on a Super Bowl winning coach… He could set a record if he beats Sean Payton again."@JamieErdahl is looking for a show from the @MiamiDolphins QB this week #FinsUp pic.twitter.com/howhEp6GVt
— Good Morning Football (@gmfb) September 22, 2023
Stat: Russell Wilson has just a 76.1 passer rating on the road since Week 13 of the 2022 Season — ninth-worst of qualified quarterbacks. The Dolphins have allowed a passer rating of just 73.5 at home since Week 13 of the 2022 season — fourth-best in the NFL.
Analysis: The home-field advantage at Hard Rock Stadium is real — particularly when they host a cold-weather market team in September. “I think we’re all excited,” Tagovailoa said. “It will be cool to finally get to play in front of our hometown crowd, so I’m sure it’ll be packed, and I’m sure those guys are really excited to see us go out there and play.”
Stat: The Dolphins have a third-down conversion rate of just 30.8% against the blitz since the 2022 season — tied for fifth-worst in the NFL. The Broncos defense has allowed a third-down conversion rate of just 29.4% when blitzing since the 2022 season — fifth-best in the NFL.
Analysis: Perhaps the only person who loves to blitz more than Vance Joseph is Josh Boyer. Expect Joseph, the former Dolphins DC, to bring the heat on Sunday.
Stat: Tagovailoa has turned the ball over on just 3.4% of plays when pressured by the defense since the 2022 season — 10th-best of qualified quarterbacks. The Broncos have pressured opposing QBs on just 18.7% of passing plays since the 2022 season — third-worst in the NFL.
Analysis: The Dolphins offensive line has a good chance of getting Terron Armstead back, which will be a lift to a group that has played without him. But even the best lines have occasional lapses, and it’ll be up to Tua to adjust when it does.
Stat: The Broncos have thrown the ball 56.4% of the time in the red zone since the 2022 season — fifth-highest in the NFL. The Dolphins have allowed a completion rate of 65.9% when defending in the red zone since the 2022 season — second-worst in the NFL.
Analysis: Vic Fangio’s group made strides in Week 2, but the Dolphins still have the league’s second-worst red-zone defense (from a statistical standpoint) entering Sunday’s games.
Stat: Tagovailoa has a 103.4 passer rating at home since the 2022 season — fifth-best of qualified quarterbacks. The Broncos have allowed a completion rate of 69% on the road since the 2022 season — fifth-worst in the NFL.
Analysis: The over/under as of Friday was 47.5 — third-highest of the remaining Week 3 games. A shootout on Sunday should surprise no one.
6 minutes of Raheem Mostert mic’d up from his big performance in the week 2 win🎤 pic.twitter.com/LfKOTMzCgf
— King of Phinland🐬👑 (@KingOfPhinland) September 21, 2023
Stat: Dolphins RB Raheem Mostert has averaged 5.7 yards from scrimmage per touch this season — seventh-best of the 36 qualified NFL RBs. Broncos LB Josey Jewell has missed two tackles on 45 opportunities since Week 13 of the 2022 season — seventh-best of 41 qualified NFL linebackers.
Analysis: The Patriots were able to limit the Dolphins’ explosive plays on offense in Week 2, but Mostert still got loose for a 43-yard run. It’ll be interesting to see Joseph’s approach, particularly if Jaylen Waddle doesn’t play.
Broncos vs. Dolphins Predictions
- David Bearman: Dolphins
- Adam Beasley: Dolphins
- Dalton Miller: Dolphins
- Jay Morrison: Dolphins
- Dallas Robinson: Dolphins
For all of PFN’s Week 3 predictions, we have you covered.
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