The Denver Broncos will face the Atlanta Falcons in Week 11. We have fantasy football start-sit advice for every fantasy-relevant player for the Broncos so you can make the best decisions for your lineups.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 11 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Bo Nix, QB
What we are seeing from Bo Nix is encouraging on multiple levels. He’s keeping his WR1 feed while also taking what the defense is giving him and adding in plus athleticism when given the opportunity.
I’m loading up on as much Nix stock as I can in long-term leagues, and while I don’t think he’s yet a locked-in starter, he’s in the mix. In the first quarter last week, he distributed his eight passes to seven different teammates, guiding him to his fourth top-15 performance over his past six games.
In terms of this week, the Falcons have the fourth-lowest opponent average depth of throw, something that I believe Nix will leverage to a high-floor, low-ceiling sort of performance that lands him in the QB11-15 range. There’s nothing wrong with that, and if he can continue to showcase growth, a matchup with the Bengals in Week 17 could result in you counting on him with money on the line.
Audric Estimé, RB
The fifth-round rookie out of Notre Dame seemingly took control of this backfield last week. That made him the cover boy for all waiver wire content this week.
Broncos RB snap shares, Week 10:
- Estimé: 45.5%
- Javonte Williams: 29.1%
- Jaleel McLaughlin: 10.9%
Estimé averaged 6.2 yards per carry during his time in college, and while the versatility was limited, he did score on 7.8% of his carries, a skill set that might transfer nicely to the pros for the 227-pound back.
Diving more into the Week 10 usage, it was Williams who was featured in the first quarter and the Estimé show began after that (Quarters 2-4: 57.5% snap share). For the game, those two essentially split third-down duties, with Estimé holding a significant edge on the first two downs, the money-making downs as far as fantasy managers are concerned.
This is pretty clearly a fluid situation that demands our attention but not our Week 11 commitment. I’m not starting any Broncos RB in any format this week but rather using this matchup against a below-average run defense (both in EPA and success rate) as a data point when it comes to evaluating the final month-plus of this fantasy season.
Javonte Williams, RB
To call this season an up-and-down one for Javonte Williams would be a bit of an understatement, but it would appear that things are bottoming out at the worst time possible for his loyal fantasy managers.
Denver jumped out to a 14-3 lead through the first 1.5 quarters on Sunday afternoon against the Chiefs, and Williams had one of their eight rush attempts as they worked into a favorable script. As it turns out, that was the only carry he’d get for the entire game as he finished with more targets than rushing yards.
We are coming up on a month since the last time we saw Williams gain 10 yards with a handoff, and none of his 103 totes this season have picked up more than 20 yards. Through 10 weeks, he’s produced 18.4% below fantasy expectations and is trending in the direction of being a roster cut.
I’m not pulling the trigger yet as we’ve seen Sean Payton cycle through backs in the past, but I’m certainly not holding with much confidence, and there isn’t a type of league in which I’d be entertaining the idea of starting him.
Courtland Sutton, WR
Ja’Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb, and Amon-Ra St. Brown. Those are just three of the receivers this season without back-to-back top-10 performances — not included on that list is Courtland Sutton after consecutive big weeks (total: 13 catches for 192 yards and a touchdown) as he continues to show growth alongside Bo Nix.
His 32-yard score last week came on a third-down play where the Broncos showed off their willingness to be aggressive in analytically wise spots. You love to see it.
Denver leads the league in average starting field position this season, just another boost when it comes to projecting Sutton’s ability to sustain what he’s been doing lately.
I don’t have him ranked as a top-10 option, but he is a WR2 for me across all formats against the worst defense in terms of opponent completion percentage (70.3%). Also, this game could go over its projected point total if one of the explosive playmakers on either team lands a big play early to encourage offensive aggression.
Josh Reynolds, WR
Josh Reynolds (finger surgery) has been designated to return from injured reserve and that is a nice boost for this offense, but doesn’t move the needle for fantasy purposes.
- Do you know who the second receiver in Denver is in terms of receiving yards?
- Do you know where he ranks league-wide in receiving yards?
The answers are Lil’Jordan Humphrey and 129th (211 receiving yards). I’m as encouraged as anyone by the play of Bo Nix, but I’m not betting on him sustaining a WR2 next to Courtland Sutton.
Atlanta Falcons at Denver Broncos Trends
Atlanta Falcons
Team: The Falcons are 6-4: they’ve lost every game in which they failed to score 22 points and won every game in which they reached that mark.
QB: Kirk Cousins has thrown zero touchdown passes and three interceptions on 36 fourth-quarter pass attempts over the past month.
Offense: Atlanta’s play-action rate has dropped from 16.7% last season to a league-low 8.7% this season.
Defense: Only the Cowboys, Cardinals, and Panthers allow points on more drives than the Falcons (46%).
Fantasy: We are finally getting the usage we wanted from Bijan Robinson – he has at least 19 carries and three receptions in three of his past four games (that’s three more such games than he had all of last season).
Betting: The Falcons are 2-6 ATS in their past eight games with a total under 45 points.
Denver Broncos
Team: The Broncos are 5-5 this season, with four losses coming by a single score.
QB: In Weeks 1-4, Bo Nix completed just 42.9% of his passes when outside the pocket. That number has spiked to 65.1% since.
Offense: Denver ranks third in average time to throw this season (12.6% more than league average).
Defense: No defense records a sack at a higher rate when not blitzing than the Broncos (9.9% of dropbacks).
Fantasy: This backfield is in flux, but there is value in chasing it – the Broncos lead the league in average starting field position (their own 32.7-yard line).
Betting: Unders are 9-3 in the last 12 games in which the Broncos have hosted a game with a spread (in either direction) of less than a field goal.