The 2022 Denver Broncos are Super Bowl 57 contenders. After finishing the season with a losing record for five straight years despite a talented roster, the Broncos aggressively traded for star quarterback Russell Wilson this offseason. Despite Denver finishing in fourth place in the loaded AFC West over the last two years, expectations have completely changed. We’re going to examine the Broncos’ current record prediction, their projected win totals, any intriguing prop bets involving the franchise, and their odds to win the division, conference, and Super Bowl in 2023.
All odds are from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise stated and are correct as of July 11 at 11:15 a.m. ET.
Denver Broncos record prediction 2022
Following the release of the NFL schedule, Caesars has provided odds and spreads for all of the Broncos’ 2022 regular-season matchups. Based on those numbers, the Broncos are projected as favorites in 11 games, underdogs in five, and one push. If the season matches those predictions, the Broncos will finish with an 11-5-1 record following Week 18 of the 2022 season.
Much has changed for the Broncos since we last saw them besides the addition of Wilson. New head coach Nathaniel Hackett was brought in from Green Bay as the Broncos knew their offensive ineptitude under Vic Fangio’s regime couldn’t continue. The Broncos’ defense also received a facelift after signing pass rusher Randy Gregory and welcomes back a healthy Bradley Chubb and Josey Jewell.
Stuck in arguably the deepest division ever, AFC West lines have the Broncos predicted to finish in third place. Denver is projected to make the playoffs despite the competition. However, they will need to be sharp to reach the postseason since 10 of their 17 games have a spread of 3 points or less on either side.
The Broncos’ 2022 schedule is quite favorable outside of their six matchups against divisional foes. Road games against Seattle, Jacksonville, and Carolina could be much worse. Hosting Houston and the New York Jets should be comfortable wins.
The biggest stretch of peril comes in December. Their six-game run against Baltimore, Kansas City twice, Arizona, and both Los Angeles teams is brutal. This is what will determine whether Denver makes the playoffs or not.
Broncos odds, picks, and props
Now we know the sportsbooks prediction for the Broncos on a week-by-week basis, let’s take a look at their season-long odds for win totals, the division, the conference, and the Super Bowl.
- Broncos win total: 10 (Over -120, Under +100)
- Broncos to make the playoffs: Yes (-150), No (+125)
- AFC West winner: +260
- AFC winner: +850
- Super Bowl winner: +1600
The entire AFC West entered an arms race this offseason. Denver made three notable moves by trading for Wilson, hiring Hackett, and signing Gregory over bringing back Von Miller in free agency. Because the quarterback position has been such an eyesore for Denver since Peyton Manning retired after 2015, it’s fair to consider Wilson as the single biggest upgrade in the NFL this year.
Even at 33 years old, Wilson is a phenomenal playmaker who will give the Broncos the chance to win any given week. He endured a rough stretch in 2021 after returning from his finger injury too soon, but he shouldn’t have even played those games. He looked like his normal self again in the last six games of the year.
While we all wanted Seattle to “let Russ cook” for years, his fit with Hackett should replicate Seattle’s balanced approach. Wilson can wear down as seasons progress if he has too much on his plate. If Hackett copies Matt LaFleur’s approach with Aaron Rodgers, we’ll see Denver finish around 16th in both pass and rush attempts.
This may limit the offense’s explosiveness but will increase their consistency and ability to win games.
The AFC West is hard to judge. Denver and Los Angeles have the two best rosters in the division, but the Andy Reid/Patrick Mahomes factor in Kansas City is scary. You could tell me any combination of ways the AFC West plays out, and I’d believe it’s possible.
Broncos MVP odds and player props
The Broncos MVP and player props offerings run deep. They have an impressive collection of young talent that can break through now that they’re playing with Wilson. It’s easy to get too eager with some of these props, though.
It’s impossible to find a better young supporting offensive cast than what the Broncos have for Wilson. Courtland Sutton looks most likely to benefit from an accurate deep-ball passer like Wilson since he thrives on intermediate and downfield routes. But Tim Patrick, Jerry Jeudy, Albert Okwuegbunam, Javonte Williams, and Melvin Gordon will all be relevant this season if healthy. Let’s look at the most intriguing Broncos odds and props below.
Russell Wilson +1400
- Russell Wilson regular-season passing TDs
Over/Under 31.5 -110
- Courtland Sutton regular-season receiving TDs
Over/Under 5.5, over (-120), under (-110)
- Javonte Williams regular-season rushing yards
Over/Under 975.5, over (+100), under (-130)
- Coach of the Year
Nathaniel Hackett +1600
Wilson enters the season with the ninth-best MVP odds over Matthew Stafford, Dak Prescott, and a number of playoff contenders. Denver is not a lock to make the postseason, which is a requirement for Wilson to win the MVP. More concerning is he’s unlikely to put up the monstrous numbers needed to overtake favorites Josh Allen, Tom Brady, and others.
The Broncos’ depth actually works against them for individual awards. Wilson is not likely to win the MVP due to the lack of volume stats. Javonte Williams has to split carries and, therefore, won’t win Offensive Player of the Year. Neither pass rusher Bradley Chubb nor Randy Gregory has the talent or cachet to earn Defensive Player of the Year.
The best overall award to play for Denver is Coach of the Year. Of the last five winners, three were first-year head coaches. Hackett can endear himself to voters if he can meet oddsmakers’ expectations by winning 10 games and reaching the playoffs.
I also love the player props for Denver. We’ve highlighted the juiciest lines above and will dive into them more below.
Broncos 2022 picks
- Broncos to make the playoffs: -150
- Broncos over 10 wins: -120
- Wilson over 31.5 passing TDs: -110
- Williams over 975.5 rushing yards: +100
- Sutton over 5.5 receiving TDs: -120
- Hackett to win Coach of the Year: +1600
Over the last six seasons, the Broncos have finished no higher than 23rd in points scored but have boasted a top-13 scoring defense four times. Defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero has his work cut out to replicate the solid scheme Vic Fangio put together, but he has more than enough talent to make it happen. There’s not a clear weakness on this entire roster.
I’m expecting Denver to be a top-10 team on both sides of the ball. Wilson will be the perfect quarterback for Hackett and this array of young playmakers. As much as I hate that Denver will split carries for fantasy purposes, they have two starting-caliber backs who complement each other’s skill sets.
The personnel has improved, and the offense won’t be incompetent like in recent years. The AFC West will put each team through the ringer, but Hackett will keep the offense humming. Winning games you’re expected to makes a huge difference in win total and playoff projections.
I like the Broncos to make the playoffs and to just clear their 10-win line. They could enter their Week 9 bye with six or more wins, then have another five or six winnable games even down a difficult stretch to finish the season. There’s enough talent on this roster to be a force in the AFC. Functionally, the wealth will be spread around on offense.
One of the best perks of having Wilson is his ability to help both running backs due to his rushing talent. Seattle was able to insert any back and squeeze production from them because of Wilson’s gravity, even if he’s a minor threat to run. Williams’ rushing total is an easy over for me after he accumulated 903 yards with Teddy Bridgewater, Drew Lock, and a worse scheme and offensive line than what Denver will have this year.
Wilson has averaged 29 touchdowns a season since entering the league in 2012. However, he’s had only two seasons under his current 31.5 line in his last five. I think he likely hit the under last year only because of his injury, and that caveat is the only one that stops him in 2022.
There are too many weapons on Denver for Wilson not to thrive. Hackett was part of an offense that created easier looks for Rodgers as he aged, and I expect the same for Wilson. Pairing Sutton’s over with Wilson’s also makes sense, as Sutton can be Denver’s version of DK Metcalf. Sutton isn’t the same caliber of a vertical athlete, but he is as gifted as a big body who can make cuts and run routes.
Finally, I’m taking a partial unit on Hackett winning Coach of the Year. The storyline is in place if the Broncos simply play to expectations. With any luck, they would win the AFC West, and Hackett would be a virtual lock to be a top-three candidate. He represents a good value for a semi-long shot play.