The Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks face off in an interconference matchup that pits one-time AFC West rivals.
The Broncos enter Year 2 of the Sean Payton era led by a rookie first-round signal-caller in Bo Nix, who’ll start from Day 1 of his NFL career.
Meanwhile, the Seahawks head into the first year of the post-Pete Carroll era with the defensive-minded Mike Macdonald now leading the charge in the Pacific Northwest.
Let’s look at a full breakdown of all NFL betting and fantasy football angles for this season-opening showdown:
Broncos at Seahawks Odds, Picks, Predictions, and Best Bets
All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook are correct as of Sept. 7.
Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks (-6)
- Moneyline: Broncos +205, Seahawks -250
- Total: 41.5
Nix had a strong preseason, but this environment on Sunday will be a much greater challenge than going against backups in exhibition games.
The Seahawks obviously have one of the best homefield advantages in the NFL, and their improved defense under Macdonald should have its way with Nix making his first career road start.
Seattle’s offense, meanwhile, should be able to put enough points against the Broncos’ 31st-ranked defense to help them cover a large number.
Seahawks QB Geno Smith is coming off a disappointing season after he broke out in 2022. Smith, however, is poised for a bounce-back season in 2024 with a healthier and improved offensive line, and 2023 first-round pick WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s potential emergence.
I think the Seahawks can win this one comfortably.
Prediction: Seahawks 27, Broncos 10
Pick: Seahawks -6
Broncos at Seahawks Schedule, Start Time, and More
- Start time: Sunday, Sept. 8, 2024, 4:05 p.m. ET
- Channel: CBS
- Live stream options: Hulu + Live TV, YouTube TV, CBS All-Access
- Radio Stations: KOA 850 AM & 94.1 FM, Seattle Radio Network
- Starting QBs: Bo Nix, Geno Smith
- Betting lines:
- Spread: SEA -5.5
- Total: 42
- Moneyline: SEA -225, DEN +185
The next late afternoon matchup sees the Denver Broncos head to Lumen Field to take on the Seattle Seahawks. In his second season as head coach, Payton has torn down the roster after a rough 2023 campaign. Russell Wilson was released, WR Jerry Jeudy was traded to the Cleveland Browns, and Tim Patrick was cut.
Denver ended up selecting Nix with the 12th pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. After an impressive preseason, Nix easily grasped the starting spot, surpassing Jarrett Stidham and offseason trade acquisition quarterback Zach Wilson. He still has Courtland Sutton and offseason add Josh Reynolds on the outside to pass to, but they’ll need Marvin Mims Jr. or rookie Troy Franklin to fill in the targets behind them.
Denver took an in-house approach to the defense, re-signing many expiring contracts while bolstering the defense at certain positions. While the Broncos retained talent, they added some free agents, signing LB Cody Barton to help man the middle and safety Brandon Jones to help ease the void from releasing Justin Simmons.
The Broncos have little room for error and little experience at some positions. Payton hopes for another good stretch of defensive coordinator Vance Joseph’s defense. While they could be the thorn in the side of many AFC contenders, Denver is still a few pieces away from being a playoff contender.
On the other hand, the Seahawks are hoping to return to the postseason after narrowly missing a Wild Card berth in 2023. Smith returns for his third season as Seattle’s starter enjoying a late-career resurgence. While last season wasn’t as electric as his 2022 campaign, injuries to Smith and multiple offense members slowed the unit’s momentum.
With rookie head coach Macdonald in charge following Carroll’s move to the front office in the offseason, the Seahawks look to take advantage of an open window as a solid playoff contender. Seattle’s trio of DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba still dominate the WR room.
RBs Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet get another season as the Seahawks’ primary backs, but watch out for RB3 Kenny McIntosh, who will make an impact with his limited carries. With some solid protection up front, as long as Smith can play at the high caliber of the last two seasons, this can be one of the more potent offenses in the NFL this season.
Broncos at Seahawks Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em
Quarterbacks
Bo Nix: The rookie showed some versatility this preseason, and there is certainly a path to big weeks (I argued that he’d have the best single game by a rookie QB this season in my Fantasy Football Bold Predictions piece), but I think we can agree that we need to see it before betting on it.
First-year signal callers can struggle with the speed of the NFL game once the live bullets start firing; considering that the Seahawks were the sixth-best defense at generating pressure when blitzing, I expect this game to look exactly like you’d expect — a big play or two but more mistakes than chunk gains.
I think this game might be fun to watch — and more fun if you’re not invested heavily in either pass game.
Geno Smith: To me, this matchup is going to be won/lost well before the game plays out on Sunday. Ryan Grubb brings his big-play offense to face Vance Joseph’s aggressive defense — to the better schemer goes the spoils!
Denver blitzed on one-third of opponent dropbacks in 2023, the fourth-highest rate in the NFL, giving them the potential to pick at a scab of Smith (26th of 31 qualifiers in fantasy points per pass against the blitz last season).
That said, if the offensive line can buy Smith time, this could be a spike week. He’s been a top-seven passer over the past two seasons when throwing deep in terms of yards per attempt, touchdown rate, and passer rating. He’s proven to have a nice touch on those splash plays, and the argument could certainly be made that a veteran in Tyler Lockett is never going to be healthier than he is today.
I tend to favor the defense in a battle of the minds early in the season because there are fewer moving pieces. For Smith to hit on a long play, the offensive line needs to hold up, the receiver needs to get separation, and he has to identify the mismatch in a timely manner.
That can happen, but I like the odds of that profile more after playing for a month and developing a rhythm. An aggressive offense can be effective from the jump, and that is what I expect the Broncos to do against a Seahawks line that allowed pressure at the eighth-highest rate in 2023 (not to mention a 46.1% pressure rate when blitzed).
Running Backs
Javonte Williams: It appears that Williams is well removed from the “he is on the roster bubble” nonsense from earlier this month and is in line to lead this backfield in a significant way. I’ve been higher than the industry on Williams all offseason, using the logic that he deserves some leniency for his underwhelming 2023 season after the ACL tear. I think we could see a vintage performance to open this year.
Last year, the Seahawks allowed the fourth-most running back carries of 15+ yards (22), and we know Williams can hit the home run. Just as encouraging as that is Nix’s profile. This preseason, he showcased nice athleticism, and while it was called back, he did find Williams for a touchdown this preseason against the Packers.
Even last year, which most considered a lost season, there were only three running backs in the NFL with more 10+ carry, 2+ catch games than Williams. I’m happy to be early to the party for a versatile 24-year-old in an offense that might have a higher ceiling than most assume.
Kenneth Walker III: I made Walker a flag-plant player this offseason and have him ranked as an RB1 to open the season. The Broncos’ defense was better than their annual numbers looked last season — giving up 70 points in a single game will do that — but they were victimized by the big play (second most 15+ yard carries allowed to running backs last season), and that is essentially the entire argument behind elevating Walker.
Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, and Walker. There is your list of RBs averaging three red-zone touches and picking up 10+ yards on at least 11.9% of their carries over the past two seasons. I’ll grant you that the floor is concerning and maybe the volume underwhelming if Zach Charbonnet can build on an impressive rookie season, but the ceiling is too high to ignore when in a matchup like this.
We could experience the full Walker experience over the first six weeks of this season. It’s not hard to sell yourself on him posting big numbers against the Broncos, Dolphins, Lions, and Giants, but peppered in the middle of those plus-spots are games against the Patriots and 49ers. I don’t think it’ll be a flawless season, but if you spent a fourth-round pick on K-9, I think you’re going to profit in a significant way when all is said and done.
Zach Charbonnet: I thought Charbonnet was fine as a rookie (4.3 yards per carry and an 82.5% catch rate) and should be again this season. Walker is the type of all-or-nothing back who needs a level of stability behind him to keep the offense on schedule, and I think the UCLA product can provide that.
Asking him to hold standalone value in a non-desperate situation, however, is a step I’m not willing to take. He didn’t clear 10 touches in a single healthy Walker game. Without elite burst, limitations like that in his role are too much to overlook.
Personally, I like Walker a lot this season and think the Seahawks will take a Saquon Barkley approach with him — keep giving him touches until the game-breaking play occurs. If that’s the case, Charbonnet is nothing more than a handcuff. There’s a decent chance I’m wrong with that Walker projection, and that is what makes his backup roster worthy, but he shouldn’t be on your lineup radar just yet.
Wide Receivers
Courtland Sutton: I liked what I saw from Nix this preseason, and if Tim Patrick’s release implies that this team is happy with what they have at receiver, you have to think Sean Payton is a big fan of what Sutton can do as the clear WR1.
He assumed the alpha role last season, something we thought was Jerry Jeudy’s, and ran with it. For the year, he finished 20.9% over expectation in terms of fantasy production, easily the best rate of his career; but even in a breakout season, consistency remains a concern (under 20.5% target rate in all three seasons since tearing his MCL).
The Seahawks allowed a touchdown on 24.6% of opponent drives last season (fourth most) and that puts Sutton in the Flex mix for leagues that start three receivers. For now, he’s swimming in the pool of my ranks that includes other talented receivers with young QBs (Rome Odunze, Diontae Johnson, Calvin Ridley, etc.). I could see him emerging from that pack, but I’ll need to see a consistent connection with Nix before even considering getting him inside my top 30.
Marvin Mims Jr.: Did the Broncos show their hand? Could they be in on Mims (17.1 yards per catch as a rookie)? They surprisingly cut Patrick after the final week of the preseason, opening up consistent snaps for an offense that has very little in the way of stability.
I have Mims stashed in a few spots, and while I’ll admit it’s more of a process bet than outright confidence in the player, the train of thought remains. We are getting a decent prospect (63rd overall pick) in an offense that is led by Payton and an unknown at quarterback. Gabe Davis isn’t a perfect comparison, but the former Bill was worthy of a roster spot because you were forced to play him as there was the potential for a massive week at any time.
Of course, that’s a dual-edged sword, but you know what you’re getting into. The Seahawks allowed the second-highest deep touchdown rate a season ago, so while you’re not plugging Mims into lineups yet, I would put him on the end of rosters for free now before he costs you FAAB or waiver priority should he cash in on this matchup.
DK Metcalf: Smith needs to bounce back this season for Metcalf to be a difference-maker. That said, the physical tools are too much to sit on; that is going to give Metcalf a chance to be inside of my top 15 at the position until proven otherwise.
Last season, Metcalf ranked fourth in the league in end-zone targets, and over the past two seasons, he has led all players with 12 games of multiple end-zone looks. Even if the yardage totals carry risk, the usage in the painted area is nothing short of elite and should be on full display in this game that features two of the six worst EPA defenses from 2023 — (bet the over?).
Tyler Lockett: Counting out this veteran isn’t for the faint of heart, but with seven games last season with three or fewer receptions, it’s impossible to enter 2024 with confidence.
Lockett will turn 32 later this month and is coming off of his worst season in terms of fantasy points to expectation since 2017. I have him positioned to be the fantasy WR3 in this offense, and that means it’ll take the perfect matchup for him to move onto my Flex radar — I don’t think this is that with Denver blitzing at the fourth-highest rate last season.
What made Lockett special for years was his ability to win deep and connect with Russell Wilson on those bombs. Things aren’t the same with Smith; if the Broncos are going to bring the heat, he’s not going to have the time needed to land the type of splash play that you’d need to justify going this direction.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: There has been a groundswell regarding the JSN breakout season, and I’m generally on board. The depth of the WR position allows us time to be patient when it comes to plugging him into starting lineups, and that’s a blessing, though I do want him on my roster in case he truly explodes in Year 2.
Smith-Njigba last season:
- Weeks 1-5: 3.3 aDOT
- Weeks 6-18: 7.2 aDOT (still shallow, but more optionality)
We know that Grubb wants to stretch the field. We know that Smith is capable of doing so. We know that Lockett showed signs of decline last season. Put all of those ingredients into a pot and we could be looking at a fantasy league winner with time.
Tight Ends
Noah Fant: I don’t really understand the idea of Fant as a solution for people who punt on this position. In an offense with unstable QB play, do you want to bet on maybe the fourth option at pass catcher on an offense that should be able to run the ball reasonably well?
No thanks. There are plenty of options at the position on your waiver wire right now that interest me more this season. Fant has seen his yards per route decline in each of the past three seasons and ranked 34th of 39 qualified TEs in targets per route run in 2023 (13.5%).
Broncos at Seahawks Key Stats To Know
Team: Denver hasn’t had a winning season since 2016 (they didn’t have a losing season in the six years prior to this run of futility).
QB: Nix had more games with 4+ TD passes (4) last season than he had interceptions (3).
Offense: The Broncos scored once every 56.4 rush attempts, a rate that topped only the Panthers last season.
Defense: The Broncos owned the second-best third-down defense a season ago (33.2%, league average: 38.8%)
Fantasy: In their rookie seasons, Williams was better than Jahmyr Gibbs and Jonathan Taylor in terms of both percentage of carries gaining 5+ yards and fantasy points per opportunity.
Betting: Since 2022, the Broncos cover 30.8% of the time when the game goes Over the closing total (down from 45% in Unders).
AT
Team: The Seahawks allowed a league high 34.9 yards per drive last season.
QB: Smith was the least accurate red-zone QB last season. His 41.8% completion percentage inside the 20 ranked fifth worst since 2020 (the only QBs with a worse season over that stretch – Gardner Minshew, Kenny Pickett, Daniel Jones, and Sam Darnold)
Offense: Last season, Metcalf ranked fourth in the league in end-zone targets and over the past two seasons, he leads all players with 12 games of multiple end-zone looks.
Defense: Last year, the Seahawks allowed the fourth-most running back carries of 15+ yards (22)
Fantasy: Christian McCaffrey, Taylor, and Kenneth Walker. There is your list of RBs averaging three red-zone touches and picking up 10+ yards on at least 11.9% of their carries over the past two seasons.
Betting: The Seahawks are just 4-9-2 ATS as a favorite over the past two seasons, the third-worst cover rate over that stretch (DEN and CAR have been worse … neither is favored in Week 1).