Last year, not a single fantasy football manager drafted DeMario Douglas. Now, he enters the 2024 NFL season as the New England Patriots‘ WR1. Playing in an offense likely to feature a heavy dose of a rookie QB, is Douglas worth targeting in the latter stages of fantasy drafts?
Should You Select DeMario Douglas at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 189th Overall (WR70)
- Surprising Rookie Season: Douglas may have started slow, but he finished his rookie season strong, becoming a key part of the Patriots’ offense. Despite averaging just 7.7 fantasy points per game, his increased usage late in the season suggests there’s more potential in year two.
- Role as Patriots’ WR1: Douglas enters 2024 as the Patriots’ WR1, but he faces competition from rookies Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker. His status as a Day 3 wide receiver means he could either lead the team in targets or quickly fall out of favor.
- Low-Risk, Moderate Reward: Douglas is going off the board as WR67, making him a low-risk pick with potential upside. However, the Patriots’ offense may not provide enough opportunities for any receiver to make a significant fantasy impact.
- ADP Analysis: Douglas is currently being drafted as WR70, No. 189 overall. I have him ranked slightly higher at WR64, which aligns with the consensus. While he’s a solid late-round dart throw, his upside may be limited.
- Final Verdict: Douglas is a fine late-round option, but his potential impact is capped by the Patriots’ offensive situation. He’s worth considering if you need depth, but temper expectations for a breakout season.
[the_ad_group id=”71495″]
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for DeMario Douglas
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis. Since Douglas is ranked outside the top 75 in the PFN Consensus Rankings, we’ve listed the consensus WR rankings instead.Â
58) Jerry Jeudy, WR | Cleveland Browns
59) Khalil Shakir, WR | Buffalo Bills
60) Rashid Shaheed, WR | New Orleans Saints
61) Joshua Palmer, WR | Los Angeles Chargers
62) Gabe Davis, WR | Jacksonville Jaguars
63) DeMario Douglas, WR | New England Patriots
64) Jahan Dotson, WR | Washington Commanders
65) Adam Thielen, WR | Carolina Panthers
66) Dontayvion Wicks, WR | Green Bay Packers
67) Ja’Lynn Polk, WR | New England Patriots
68) Marvin Mims Jr., WR | Denver Broncos
Douglas’ Fantasy Profile for the 2024 Fantasy Season
When you see 49 catches for 561 yards and no touchdowns, it’s easy to completely dismiss those numbers. While that’s mighty impressive for a sixth-round rookie, over a full season, that player belongs nowhere near the fantasy conversation.
Douglas averaged a mere 7.7 fantasy points per game as a rookie. Obviously, we shouldn’t care about a player who does that for fantasy. However, further context is key to understanding Douglas’ rookie campaign.
From Weeks 1-6, Douglas was nothing more than rotational depth. He played 41% of the snaps in Week 1 but was between 8% and 33% the next four weeks. In Week 6, he was a healthy inactive.
In Week 7, things changed. Douglas became more heavily integrated into the offense. He played at least 62% of the snaps in all but one of his remaining games in which he was active. By the final two weeks of the season, Douglas was a 90%-snap-share player.
Given his lack of touchdowns, Douglas was never truly an impact fantasy asset. As we know, touchdowns are everything in fantasy football. They are also quite random. Once upon a time, another Patriots WR, Jakobi Meyers, amassed 1,560 receiving yards before scoring a touchdown. It’s rare, but it happens. If Douglas doesn’t score any touchdowns this year, he won’t matter much in fantasy. But his usage suggests he should be able to.
In five games played from Weeks 7-12, Douglas caught at least four passes in all of them. He averaged 6.9 targets per game from Week 7 onward. Douglas wasn’t some fantasy savior, but he did reach double-digit fantasy points in five of his final nine games.
Is Douglas a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
Douglas enters the 2024 season as the No. 1 on the Patriots’ depth chart at WR. He could end up leading this team in targets. He also could be overtaken by rookies Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker.
Therein lies the risk in Day 3 wide receivers. Unless they really smash like Amon-Ra St. Brown or Puka Nacua did in their respective rookie seasons, it won’t take much for them to lose their spot. As easily as Douglas could lead the Patriots in targets, he could be out of the league in two years.
With that said, there isn’t really any risk with Douglas at all. He’s going off the board as the WR67. In many fantasy leagues, he won’t even be drafted.
I do think Douglas is a solid player who will remain in the NFL for the better part of the next decade. There is no risk associated with drafting him. However, what exactly is the upside?
I have Douglas ranked as my WR64, which is right in line with consensus. He’s a fine late-round dart throw but not necessarily one I am excited to make. It’s just hard to envision the Patriots’ offense propelling any wide receiver to high enough heights that they would make an impact in fantasy matchups.
