The San Francisco 49ers will face the Buffalo Bills in Week 13. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding WR Deebo Samuel.
Is Deebo Samuel Playing in Week 13?
Samuel is not listed on the injury report this week, so barring any setbacks, he is on track to play this weekend.
We’ll continue to monitor the 49ers injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Should You Start or Sit Deebo Samuel in Week 13?
Is there a more difficult player to rank with confidence annually than Deebo Samuel Sr.?
- 2021: 37.6% production over expectations
- 2022: 13.7% production under expectations
- 2023: 35.2% production over expectations
- 2024: 10.2% production under expectations
Samuel’s rushing equity has all but dried up since Christian McCaffrey made his season debut three weeks ago, and we have a downward-trending ability to earn targets that we need to consider. His on-field target share stood at 25.5% in 2021, a rate that fell to 25.1% in 2022, again to 23.4% in 2023, and currently sits at 20.5%.
He remains nearly impossible to tackle in space, so the fact that the Bills allow the 10th most red-zone trips per game opens up some scoring potential, but I worry more about the floor than I idealize the ceiling.
I prefer Jauan Jennings’ tighter range of outcomes in this offense and have Samuel labeled as a Flex play this weekend.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Week 13 Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Deebo Samuel’s Fantasy Points Projection in Week 13
As of 8 AM ET on Sunday morning, Samuel is projected to score 13.8 fantasy points in PPR formats. This includes 3.6 receptions for 56 yards and 0.3 touchdowns.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insight on the Rams' Defense
The Rams' defense had been recovering from a terrible start to become a league-average unit. However, that took a hit in Week 14, as they finished last with an F grade against Buffalo. Somewhat concerningly, that wasn't even their worst performance of the season (Week 2).
This was also the second time in three weeks that the Rams' defense has ranked outside the top 20. That makes it five performances this season in which they ranked below the top 20 compared to just three inside the top 10.
That has left LA's defense with the lowest Defense+ score over the last six seasons. While that was somewhat expected with both Raheem Morris and Aaron Donald leaving in the offseason, the size of the drop-off is a concern.
The Rams have struggled in the passing game this year, but despite losing Donald, they've been slightly better at putting pressure on opponents without having to blitz (32.9%; 13th). Los Angeles has also improved its sack (6.6%; 21st) and turnover (11.2%; 12th) rates this year.
Big plays and a lack of sacks and turnovers were problems against the Bills. The Rams will need to improve in those areas in order to win the NFC West. They won't face many offenses as good as Buffalo's, but those elements are ones we saw the Cardinals exploit earlier in the year.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.
Deebo Samuel’s Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, December 12. If you're in a Superflex league, make sure you check out our Weekly Consensus Superflex Rankings.
Week 15 WR PPR Rankings
1) Ja'Marr Chase | CIN (at TEN)
2) Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET (vs. BUF)
3) Puka Nacua | LAR (at SF)
4) Justin Jefferson | MIN (vs. CHI)
5) Nico Collins | HOU (vs. MIA)
6) A.J. Brown | PHI (vs. PIT)
7) Tyreek Hill | MIA (at HOU)
8) Mike Evans | TB (at LAC)
9) Terry McLaurin | WAS (at NO)
10) Drake London | ATL (at LV)
11) Malik Nabers | NYG (vs. BAL)
12) CeeDee Lamb | DAL (at CAR)
13) Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA (vs. GB)
14) Courtland Sutton | DEN (vs. IND)
15) Cooper Kupp | LAR (at SF)
16) Tee Higgins | CIN (at TEN)
17) Davante Adams | NYJ (at JAX)
18) Calvin Ridley | TEN (vs. CIN)
19) Jauan Jennings | SF (vs. LAR)
20) George Pickens | PIT (at PHI)
21) Garrett Wilson | NYJ (at JAX)
22) Zay Flowers | BAL (at NYG)
23) Jerry Jeudy | CLE (vs. KC)
24) DK Metcalf | SEA (vs. GB)
25) Khalil Shakir | BUF (at DET)
26) Brian Thomas Jr. | JAX (vs. NYJ)
27) Ladd McConkey | LAC (vs. TB)
28) DJ Moore | CHI (at MIN)
29) Marvin Harrison Jr. | ARI (vs. NE)
30) Jaylen Waddle | MIA (at HOU)
31) Jakobi Meyers | LV (vs. ATL)
32) DeAndre Hopkins | KC (at CLE)
33) Jordan Addison | MIN (vs. CHI)
34) Michael Pittman Jr. | IND (at DEN)
35) Josh Downs | IND (at DEN)
36) Jayden Reed | GB (at SEA)
37) Keenan Allen | CHI (at MIN)
38) Adam Thielen | CAR (vs. DAL)
39) Jameson Williams | DET (vs. BUF)
40) Darnell Mooney | ATL (at LV)
41) Amari Cooper | BUF (at DET)
42) DeVonta Smith | PHI (vs. PIT)
43) Tank Dell | HOU (vs. MIA)
44) Elijah Moore | CLE (vs. KC)
45) DeMario Douglas | NE (at ARI)
46) Rome Odunze | CHI (at MIN)
47) Rashod Bateman | BAL (at NYG)
48) Christian Watson | GB (at SEA)
49) Xavier Worthy | KC (at CLE)
50) Noah Brown | WAS (at NO)
51) Deebo Samuel Sr. | SF (vs. LAR)
52) Michael Wilson | ARI (vs. NE)
53) Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | TEN (vs. CIN)
54) Marquez Valdes-Scantling | BUF (at DET)
55) Ray-Ray McCloud III | ATL (at LV)
56) Alec Pierce | IND (at DEN)
57) Quentin Johnston | LAC (vs. TB)
58) Xavier Legette | CAR (vs. DAL)
59) Jalen McMillan | TB (at LAC)
60) Kendrick Bourne | NE (at ARI)
61) Parker Washington | JAX (vs. NYJ)
62) Wan'Dale Robinson | NYG (vs. BAL)
63) Devaughn Vele | DEN (vs. IND)
64) Tim Patrick | DET (vs. BUF)
65) Calvin Austin III | PIT (at PHI)
66) Joshua Palmer | LAC (vs. TB)
67) Tre Tucker | LV (vs. ATL)
68) Demarcus Robinson | LAR (at SF)
69) Dontayvion Wicks | GB (at SEA)
70) Brandin Cooks | DAL (at CAR)
71) David Moore | CAR (vs. DAL)
72) Sterling Shepard | TB (at LAC)
73) Tyler Lockett | SEA (vs. GB)
74) Mike Williams | PIT (at PHI)
75) Keon Coleman | BUF (at DET)
76) Darius Slayton | NYG (vs. BAL)
77) Van Jefferson | PIT (at PHI)
78) Adonai Mitchell | IND (at DEN)
79) Jalen Tolbert | DAL (at CAR)
80) Allen Lazard | NYJ (at JAX)
81) Ricky Pearsall | SF (vs. LAR)
82) Tyler Boyd | TEN (vs. CIN)
83) Andrei Iosivas | CIN (at TEN)
84) Jalen Nailor | MIN (vs. CHI)
85) KaVontae Turpin | DAL (at CAR)
86) Kevin Austin Jr. | NO (vs. WAS)
87) JuJu Smith-Schuster | KC (at CLE)
88) Malik Washington | MIA (at HOU)
89) Marvin Mims Jr. | DEN (vs. IND)
90) Tutu Atwell | LAR (at SF)
91) Mack Hollins | BUF (at DET)
92) Cedrick Wilson Jr. | NO (vs. WAS)
93) Justin Watson | KC (at CLE)
94) Curtis Samuel | BUF (at DET)
95) Devin Duvernay | JAX (vs. NYJ)
96) Odell Beckham Jr. | MIA (at HOU)
97) Michael Woods II | CLE (vs. KC)
98) Jahan Dotson | PHI (vs. PIT)
99) Bo Melton | GB (at SEA)
100) Greg Dortch | ARI (vs. NE)
101) Jalen Reagor | LAC (vs. TB)
102) Jalin Hyatt | NYG (vs. BAL)
103) Derius Davis | LAC (vs. TB)
104) Zay Jones | ARI (vs. NE)
105) Terrace Marshall Jr. | SF (vs. LAR)
106) Jermaine Burton | CIN (at TEN)
107) Jonathan Mingo | DAL (at CAR)
108) DJ Chark | LAC (vs. TB)
109) Tyler Johnson | LAR (at SF)
110) Trey Palmer | TB (at LAC)
111) Ben Skowronek | PIT (at PHI)
112) Jalen Brooks | DAL (at CAR)
113) Rakim Jarrett | TB (at LAC)
114) Jake Bobo | SEA (vs. GB)
115) Xavier Gipson | NYJ (at JAX)
116) Kadarius Toney | CLE (vs. KC)
117) Malik Heath | GB (at SEA)
118) Johnny Wilson | PHI (vs. PIT)
119) Brandon Powell | MIN (vs. CHI)
120) Ramel Keyton | LV (vs. ATL)
121) KhaDarel Hodge | ATL (at LV)
122) Tim Jones | JAX (vs. NYJ)
123) Kristian Wilkerson | LV (vs. ATL)
124) Jalen Coker | CAR (vs. DAL)
125) Romeo Doubs | GB (at SEA)
Rams at 49ers Trends and Insights
Los Angeles Rams
Team: The Rams lost three road games in September. They are 3-0 on the road since (all one-score victories).
QB: Matthew Stafford is going to dominate if given time. Over his past three games, he’s completed 78.6% of his passes when not pressured (9.7 yards per attempt with six touchdowns and zero interceptions).
Offense: The Rams picked up a season-high 28 first downs against the Bills in Week 14, an offensive masterpiece that included a 73.3% conversion rate on third down (11-of-15).
Defense: Over its past four games, Los Angeles has allowed 47.2 yards per drive (the first nine games: 30.6).
Fantasy: Puka Nacua has 450.8 PPR points through 25 career games, good for the third most at this point in a career among players who started their career during the 2000s.
- Odell Beckham Jr.: 584.3
- Ja’Marr Chase: 463.0
- Nacua: 450.8
- A.J. Green: 434.8
- Justin Jefferson: 429.8
Betting: The Rams have covered nine of their last 10 games played on short rest, over tickets cashing in each of the past five instances.
San Francisco 49ers
Team: The 49ers are looking to win two home games in four days (they had two home wins in the previous 90 days).
QB: Brock Purdy completed all five of his red zone passes on Sunday against the Bears and is 10-of-12 with three scores inside the opponent’s 20-yard line over his past three games.
Offense: San Francisco cashed in 83.3% of their red zone drives on Sunday into touchdowns, a drastic improvement from their rate through 13 weeks (48.9%).
Defense: The 49ers allowed just 16.2 yards per drive in Week 14’s win over Chicago, their best rate of the season (six punts forced on 10 possessions).
Fantasy: Isaac Guerendo became the first player in the NFL this season with 50 receiving yards and a rushing score in the first quarter of a game this season on Sunday.
Betting: Since 2019, the 49ers are 2-4-1 ATS on short rest at home (8-3 ATS when traveling on a short week).