DeAndre Hopkins and Calvin Ridley are a pair of veteran wide receivers that the Tennessee Titans hope will play a major role in Will Levis’s evolution as a quarterback.
But while one receiver (Ridley) is healthy and a go for the season opener at the Chicago Bears, the other (Hopkins) is questionable with a knee injury. How much should that influence fantasy managers deciding between the two for Sunday?
Here are the fantasy outlooks for Hopkins and Ridley heading into Week 1.
Week 1 Fantasy Outlook for DeAndre Hopkins
Hopkins enters this season No. 47 WR in Pro Football Network’s consensus fantasy football rankings. He is coming off a less-than-impressive season in 2023, and now age (32) and injury (knee) are becoming factors in his career.
Although he did go over 1,000 receiving yards for the first time since 2020 (1,057), there was nothing spectacular about Hopkins’ first season with the Titans in 2023. His per-game averages in receptions (4.4) and receiving yards (62.2) were both down significantly from his final season with the Arizona Cardinals in 2022 (7.1 and 79.7).
In addition, despite 137 targets last season, Hopkins had a catch percentage of 54.7%, his lowest since 2016 (51.7%). On the positive side, Hopkins averaged 14.1 yards per reception, his highest average since 2017.
Hopkins used to be a terrific Week 1 pick for fantasy managers, as he scored at least 20 fantasy points in a Week 1 game for four straight years from 2019-22. But those days may be over after he produced just 13.5 fantasy points in Week 1 last season.
And the knee injury he suffered in late July during training camp turned out to be a torn MCL, according to Hopkins this week. Although Hopkins repeatedly has said he hopes to be on the field Sunday, fantasy managers are no doubt left wondering what they can expect from an aging, injured veteran receiver in Week 1.
Week 1 Fantasy Outlook for Calvin Ridley
Ridley is the WR36 in PFN’s consensus rankings. His numbers last season with the Jacksonville Jaguars — 136 targets, 76 receptions, 1,016 yards, 13.4 yards per reception, 8 touchdown catches — turned out to be remarkably similar to Hopkins’ 2023 season.
And Ridley’s fantasy production last season — 13.5 fantasy points per game, 229.9 total fantasy points — was also close to Hopkins’s numbers (13.2 fantasy PPG, 223.6 total points).
It should be noted that last season Ridley started his season off strong — 24.1 fantasy points vs. the Indianapolis Colts — and ended the season strong — at least 20 fantasy points in two of his final three games.
At this point, what is separating Ridley from Hopkins is health. Ridley is fine to go Sunday, while Hopkins remains uncertain and likely will remain that way leading up to game day.
Who Should I Start in Week 1?
According to Pro Football Network’s Fantasy Football Start/Sit Optimizer, Ridley is the best choice of the two for fantasy managers to start. He is projected to finish with four receptions for 44 yards and 10.5 fantasy points.
That outperforms the projections for Hopkins: 3 catches, 39 receiving yards, and 8.7 fantasy points.
I agree with the optimizer in this matchup. The injury situation involving Hopkins is too uncertain to invest a fantasy roster spot on a player who was average in fantasy production last season to begin with.
Kyle Soppe’s Fantasy Outlook for the Titans’ WRs in Week 1
Calvin Ridley: If you have two, you have none. Hopkins ranked fourth in deep targets a season ago, while Ridley checked in at fifth. These two players aren’t identical, but there certainly is some skill duplication in Tennessee’s developing pass game and that has resulted in me trusting neither to open the season (both outside of my top-30 receivers).
With time, the hope is that either Levis looks like a franchise QB and can stabilize both of these playmakers or he latches onto his favorite of these two and elevates him to a top-25 producer.
I’d slightly favor Ridley in that race, though I’m not arrogant enough to bet on my initial feel given the depth at the receiver position. I’d rather play a stable skill set like Chris Godwin/Christian Kirk or swing bigger in a Jayden Reed/Tank Dell kind of way than gamble on the Titans’ unclear situation.
DJ Moore: This is a loaded offense, but the competition for looks seems destined to be at the WR2 role. Moore came to Chicago last season and earned targets at an elite rate in an offense that carried significant aerial risk – why can’t he excel again this season now that he has a year of experience under his belt and is paired with a better thrower of the football?
Moore is unlikely to dominate the target share the way he did last season due to the increase in talent around him, though I don’t think it’s risky to label him as the top earner. The Titans allowed the ninth-most yards per pass last season, and that’s more than enough to land Moore as a rock-solid WR2.