The NFL offseason has two major events that will inevitably impact the fantasy values of several players. The first of those two events is free agency. Amidst all the 2022 free agent signings, the Green Bay Packers utilized their franchise tag. What does Davante Adams’ dynasty fantasy football value look like after the Packers slapped him with the franchise tag?
Davante Adams’ dynasty fantasy outlook
Adams is coming off yet another stellar season. He caught 123 passes for 1,553 yards and 11 touchdowns in 2021. Adams finished as the overall WR2 behind Cooper Kupp with 21.5 PPR fantasy points per game.
Since taking over as the Packers‘ WR1 in 2018, Adams has finished as the WR1, WR5, WR1, and WR2, respectively. He’s an elite WR1 in every sense of the term.
Adams’ short-term fantasy outlook is outstanding
There is no doubt that age is an important factor in evaluating dynasty assets. Adams will turn 30 before the end of the 2022 season and well into the second half of his career. With that said, we have no reason to believe Adams’ production will fall off in the next couple of seasons.
Aaron Rodgers re-signed with the Packers to a four-year, $200 million deal. Adams and Rodgers made it abundantly clear they want to play together. Even though the Packers hit Adams with the franchise tag, I fully expect the two to reach an agreement on an extension by the summer. Given Rodgers’ contract, we can safely project at least two more years of one of the most lethal QB-WR duos in NFL history.
Wide receiver production tends to really fall off around age 32. Thus, fantasy managers should have no concerns about Adams’ WR1 status until at least 2024. Given his skill set, I don’t think he will completely fall off a cliff as he gets older. His decline should be more gradual. Adams won’t be a WR1 forever, but he can remain a useful fantasy asset into his mid-30s.
Adams may very well be undervalued in dynasty leagues due to his age. Again, age does matter. However, dynasty managers should not be looking more than 3-4 years down the line. Adams is going to be useful during that duration and should be a mid-to-high WR1 for at least two of those seasons.
Fantasy impact on Aaron Rodgers and Packers wide receivers
Rodgers just won back-to-back MVP awards and is playing as well as ever. We’ve seen Tom Brady and Drew Brees play at a high level into their early 40s. There’s no reason Rodgers — also an undisputed top-10 QB of all time — can’t do the same.
As for the rest of the Packers’ wide receivers, it all depends on what they do. Will this be the season they finally invest Day 1 or early Day 2 draft capital on a WR?
The last time the Packers drafted a wide receiver in the first two rounds was Adams back in 2014. Since then, they’ve drafted two wide receivers in Round 3: Ty Montgomery in 2015 and Amari Rodgers in 2021. Montgomery is long gone, and Amari’s rookie season (20-166-0) suggests he will never be more than a rotational WR4/5.
Adams re-signing doesn’t change anything either way. We know what this offense looks like. Whether there’s a second fantasy-relevant wide receiver will depend on who it is. Adams will be the alpha WR1 with over a 30% target share regardless.