Davante Adams DFS Value, Prop Bets vs. 49ers: Can anyone on the 49ers contain Adams?

Is there value on Davante Adams prop bets this weekend against the 49ers, and should he also be considered for DFS lineups?

The Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs is upon us, which means only a few games remain in the season — leaving us limited time to find value in fantasy football and NFL betting. As we continue our tour around the Divisional Round while examining individual player values for prop bets and DFS, let’s see if there is value in Davante Adams.

Davante Adams’ DFS value vs. 49ers

When you start the conversation about the best wide receivers, not only in fantasy football/DFS but the NFL, the conversation begins with Adams. Even with multiple seasons of 1,300+ yards, he found a way to best those numbers in 2021.

Playing in 16 games, Adams set career-highs in receptions (123) and passing yards (1,553), finishing third in the NFL only behind Cooper Kupp (1,947) and Justin Jefferson (1,616). Adams also tied a career-high with 169 targets (second-most in 2021) while scoring 11 touchdowns. That would be a career season for 99% of players but was a 39% decrease from 2020 (18). That’s how good Adams is.

From a consistency standpoint, few are better than Adams, who averaged 21.5 points and finished as a WR2 or better in 11 of 16 games. At $8,500, Adams is just $100 less than Kupp as the second-highest-priced WR — they are the only players above $8,000 for this weekend’s slate. Even Josh Allen is set at “just” $7,600. After setting the franchise single-season record for receptions, there seems to be no slowing down Adams. And I don’t think the San Francisco 49ers will be able to do it either.

While the 49ers are No. 7 in DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) as a unit, they are 16th in pass DVOA and 23rd in EPA/dropback (Expected Points Added). For fantasy, they are No. 23 in points allowed to WRs per game at 35.55 PPR and have allowed 24 WRs to score double-digit points. Since Week 12, seven different WRs have scored 19 or more. If you were ever going to pay up for a WR this week in DFS, it has to be Adams, even at $8,500.

Davante Adams prop bets this weekend

It should be no surprise that Adams’ receiving prop is one of the highest of the week on basically every sportsbook. On FanDuel, it is at 91.5 yards (-110). Over on DraftKings, it’s 94.5 (-115) and 95.5 (-125) on PointsBet. No question, it is a lot of yards. Yet, for a receiver who has eight games of 100+ yards — including 206 in Week 5– you can never count Adams out.

Adams is the Packers’ passing offense. He represents 31.6% of the targets and 37% of the team’s air yards. At 1,609 intended air yards, Adams is ninth in the NFL. If you expect Aaron Rodgers to have a good game, which I do, then Adams will as well.

Whether it is Ambry Thomas or Emmanuel Moseley guarding Adams, no one on this defense is capable of stopping him. Certainly not two CBs who allow 80% and 70% reception percentage when targeted, respectively. If you want the action, it has to be the over when looking at prop bets for Adams.

Adams’ anytime touchdown will be a popular bet as well, but there is not a ton of value. Currently, it is -136 on PointsBet, -135 on DK, and -145 on FanDuel. Personally, I prefer the +125 of AJ Dillon on PointsBet if I were to pick a Packers anytime scorer, but you cannot go broke making a profit. Even at -135, Adams is highly likely to find the end zone and does bring some value.

Tommy Garrett is a Fantasy Analyst for Pro Football Network and is a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA). You can read all of Tommy’s work here and give him a follow on Twitter: @TommyGarrettPFN.