With just five days to go until the 2025 NFL Draft, tensions are high and the takes are hotter. But one question from quarterback-turned-analyst Dan Orlovsky has sparked debate that drew strong reactions. It’s a simple debate with massive consequences: Would you rather whiff on a quarterback in the draft or overpay one in free agency and still get burned?
Orlovsky’s post lit up social media like a late-game pick-six. With thousands of views and hundreds of interactions, the question hit a nerve. Quarterback is the most critical position in football — and the hardest to get right. But when a team gets it wrong, especially in a dramatic way, the ripple effects can crush a franchise’s short-term hopes and long-term plans.
Case for Both Sides — And the Atlanta Falcons’ Current Kirk Cousins Mess
Orlovsky’s tweet read:
“What’s worse/more detrimental!? Drafting a QB too early and missing? Paying a free agent QB too much and missing?”
What’s worse/more detrimental!?
Drafting a QB too early and missing?
Paying a free agent QB too much and missing?
— Dan Orlovsky (@danorlovsky7) April 19, 2025
Fan responses showed just how emotional and polarizing the topic is. One fan commented, “How about trading for a star QB and then when you trade for him you pay him 230 mil and he turns into a bum on your team? Is that an option?” Another added, “B. Rookie salary miss won’t kill your team. High salary FA QB miss will.”
One fan pointed to the Falcons’ situation with Kirk Cousins, and how missing in the draft can have long-term consequences, especially if that miss happens early. “Drafting a QB. Way easier to get out of the free agent deal i.e. Kirk Cousins. Whiffing on a draft pick also comes with the unrealized value from the players you passed on.”
Drafting a QB. Way easier to get out of the free agent deal i.e. Kirk Cousins. Whiffing on a draft pick also comes with the unrealized value from the players you passed on.
— James (@James_Skrmetta) April 19, 2025
Atlanta has unintentionally made itself the poster child for this debate. In 2024, they handed Cousins a four-year, $180 million deal with $100 million guaranteed. Then, not even a full offseason later, they drafted Michael Penix Jr. in the first round. Penix is now set to start in 2025, while Cousins — still owed a mountain of guaranteed money — wants out. It’s the worst of both worlds: a bloated contract and a quarterback controversy no one asked for.
But perhaps the most nuanced take came from a fan who commented, “Paying a free agent QB and missing is worse. Drafting a rookie QB is always projecting into uncertainty… Free agent QBs have NFL reps and film. Way less uncertainty. Teams cannot miss at that $$$.”
Paying a free agent QB and missing is worse.
Drafting a rookie QB is always projecting into uncertainty. It’s inherent and the cost of a miss is lowere, relative to a free agent QB.
Free agent QB’s have NFL reps and film. Way less uncertainty. Teams cannot miss at that $$$.
— Brian Kight (@TBrianKight) April 19, 2025
Cleveland Browns Fans Know This Pain All Too Well
For some, like Cleveland Browns fans, the answer isn’t hypothetical — it’s lived experience. This Browns fan understands all too well the pain of both situations that Orlovsky is posing: “I’ll top that as a Browns fan. Trading for a QB and missing. That takes the cake.” Hard to argue when your team’s history includes both draft-day disasters and one of the worst contracts in NFL history.
I’ll top that as a Browns fan. Trading for a QB and missing. That takes the cake.
— Ethan Greenberg – (Ethan in Richmond, VA) (@egreen4325) April 19, 2025
Cleveland has been quarterback purgatory for decades. Since returning to the league in 1999, the Browns have spent first-round picks on Tim Couch, Brady Quinn, Brandon Weeden, Johnny Manziel, and Baker Mayfield, with little to show for any of them. Then came the Deshaun Watson deal.
In 2022, the Browns traded three first-round picks for Watson and handed him a fully guaranteed $230 million contract, then the richest in NFL history. Since then? Off-field controversy, subpar performance, and more questions than answers. Now, Watson’s deal is cited in nearly every conversation about contract disasters. The team is financially handcuffed, and Watson’s inconsistent play only adds to the misery.
So, what’s worse? A busted rookie QB or a free agent flameout? Browns fans — and Falcons fans — might agree: It’s not just about how you miss. It’s about how big the hole you leave behind is.