Damien Harris, James White or Rex Burkhead: Which Patriots RB can you trust for fantasy?

Heading into their Week 9 Monday Night Football matchup against the New York Jets, which Patriots RB can you trust in fantasy between Damien Harris, James White, or Rex Burkhead? Is this a situation that is better off avoiding in fantasy altogether due to its ambiguity? Or, is there value to be found in this Patriots backfield? Knowing who to put your confidence in when making roster decisions in fantasy football is the difference between a win or a loss, and this New England backfield is not one that inspires very much confidence.

Damien Harris (questionable) is expected to play

Seventeen players from the Patriots were listed as questionable following the team’s final injury report, so it’s clear there’s a bit of deception being played at the moment. We can’t take all of it too seriously. That is especially the case for RB Damien Harris and his fantasy potential.

Harris was listed as a limited participant all week and seemed to have no setbacks. There was no serious talk about him possibly missing Monday’s game, and all indications seem to suggest the second-year back will be good to go.

Related | Jamison Crowder Injury Update: Is he playing tonight?

It’s worth mentioning that this was the same ankle injury he had when he played Buffalo last week, and it didn’t slow him down. His 16 rushes for 102 yards and a touchdown made last week his best of the season, and Harris continues to lead the backfield in rushing. 

The downside for Harris is that he gets virtually zero opportunities in the passing game but will serve as the lead ball-carrier so long as he remains healthy. In a game where we expect the Patriots to get out early, this should play into Damien Harris being the fantasy running back to trust in Week 9.

When in the lead, the Patriots run the ball 63% of the time, which ranks as the third-highest mark in the league. The Jets rush defense also just got weaker last week as they traded away LB Avery Williamson to the Steelers. Damien Harris should see 15 touches and be considered a low-end fantasy RB2 who may get some goal-line carries stolen away by Cam Newton, the Patriots actual goal-line back. Granted, this could all be turned on its head if the Patriots activate RB Sony Michel off the injured reserve.

Who should we trust between James White or Rex Burkhead in fantasy?

This is when things become a bit more convoluted when trying to predict output for a Patriots RB. James White’s usage has been baffling for someone who was the fantasy RB18 last year in PPR. He started the season off hot, getting the usage we have come to expect. In his first three games this year, White saw eight, 11, and 13 opportunities, which is normal for him. James White was in this range in nine of the 15 games he played in during the 2019 season. However, in the last two weeks, he has just seven combined opportunities compared to the 15 of Rex Burkhead. Damien Harris’ success has led to fewer fantasy opportunities for both White and Burkhead.

James White’s fantasy value almost exclusively comes from the passing game, but his per-game production this year hasn’t matched past seasons. However, there is no better cure for poor performances or a lack of trust than playing the New York Jets. 

Where White is a passing-exclusive back, Rex Burkhead is a bit more of a hybrid fantasy player, seeing usage in both the run game as well as the pass. What I think most people miss is that Burkhead is second on the team in total yards from scrimmage with 321, only behind Julian Edelman’s 337. This is mainly a product of his versatility. His 61 total touches lead the Patriots’ offense, and he is the only player outside of Newton to have multiple touchdowns on the season (3).

The downside of either player is the fact the Patriots won’t commit to one or the other. White is averaging 8.6 points per game, where Rex Burkhead is at 9.4 on the season. Not exactly anything to write home about. 

What should managers expect in Week 9 for Damien Harris’ fantasy outlook compared to James White and Rex Burkhead?

At least one member of the Patriots’ backfield should do well this week as the Jets have not shown they can slow down opposing running backs. The defense allows an average of 98 yards and a touchdown on the ground and another 45 yards through the air to the position group. They just traded away their best run-stopper and are facing a team that runs more than 60% of the time when they have the lead in a game. The Jets are 9.5 point underdogs in this one, meaning they will be down and one of these Patriots’ RBs will get mop-up duty.

The downside is I have no confidence in saying which player I think it will be. I want to lean on Damien Harris being the fantasy play due to volume, but with Cam Newton rushing the ball 59 times this year, we could see a repeat of the Seattle game where he rushed 11 times and scored two touchdowns on the ground. 

I have Damien Harris as a low-end RB2 that carries limited upside, and both James White and Rex Burkhead are both outside the fantasy RB3 range and are a Flex play if you need it. 

Want more fantasy football analysis and news?

Be sure to follow us on Twitter: @PFN365 to stay up to date with all things around the NFL and the 2020 fantasy football season. Also, continue to visit Pro Football Network for NFL news and in-depth analysis while also seeing our fantasy football section for more coverage and up-to-date rankings.

Tommy Garrett is a writer for PFN covering Fantasy Football. You can read more of his work here and follow him at @TommygarrettPFN on Twitter.