Coming off an excellent rookie season, all signs point to Buffalo Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid taking the next step toward progressing into one of the league’s premiere tight ends.
Should fantasy football managers expect this from Kincaid? Or is Kincaid still in the development stage of his career and not yet ready to be an elite fantasy player?
Here is Kicaid’s fantasy outlook for 2024.
Dalton Kincaid’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
Kincaid finished 2023 with the eighth-most targets among tight ends with 91. He also finished with 73 receptions for 673 yards and two touchdowns.
While these were more than acceptable numbers for a rookie, a deeper look is probably needed to fully understand the impact, or lack thereof, of Kincaid’s season.
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Kincaid clearly improved as the Bills’ season went on. After averaging less than four targets (3.8) and four receptions (3.4) per game and 23.6 receiving yards per game over his first five contests, Kincaid averaged 6.5 targets and 5.1 receptions per game over his final 11.
Kincaid also averaged over 50 receiving yards a game (50.5) and scored his only two touchdowns over the 11-game span. And after not having even one 50-yard receiving game in his first five contests, Kincaid had six such games over his final 11.
However, there were some less-than-impressive efforts from Kincaid, most notably, a two-game stretch in Weeks 15 and 16 when he was targeted a total of four times and had one reception for seven yards.
However, Kincaid did bounce back to have back-to-back games with 80 or more receiving yards in the final two games of the regular season, averaging 15.6 yards per reception.
Is Kincaid a Good Fantasy Pick?
Kincaid is the TE5 in Pro Football Network’s Consensus Fantasy Football Rankings.
While the lack of production when it comes to touchdowns is somewhat concerning — no touchdowns over the final seven games of the regular season, although he did have a touchdown catch against the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC Wild Card win — there are other factors that weigh heavily in Kincaid’s favor.
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For one, he has arguably the best fantasy quarterback in the NFL in Josh Allen. And the fact that Kincaid’s numbers improved down the stretch of the season and into the playoffs, would seem to indicate Allen has trust in the young tight end.
Along with that is the fact that the Bills appear to be entering this season without a legitimate WR1 following the departures of Stefon Diggs (Houston Texans) and Gabe Davis (Jacksonville Jaguars).
Presumably, that will open up more opportunities for Kincaid to be a more popular target for Allen.
While there are other tight ends who have better résumés at the moment, if Kincaid is still available after the fourth or fifth round, fantasy managers should jump on the chance to add what should be Allen’s favorite target in 2024.