The Dallas Cowboys‘ WR group is headlined by one of the biggest fantasy football stars right now in CeeDee Lamb. Behind Lamb, the fantasy relevance of the Cowboys’ WR room is somewhat questionable entering 2024.
The current depth chart has Brandin Cooks and Jalen Tolbert as the starters alongside Lamb, but can either of them be useful for fantasy managers this season? Let’s examine the fantasy outlooks for Lamb, Cooks, and Tolbert in 2024.
CeeDee Lamb’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR Fantasy Points: 416.7 (274.4 non-PPR)
- Rushing Yards: 105.1
- Receptions: 142.4
- Receiving Yards: 1,868.8
- Receiving TDs: 12.0
What we want to see from NFL teams is them treating their alpha WR1 … like an alpha WR1. But as we’ll see with some other top receivers, they’re not all treated the way the Cowboys treat Lamb. Dallas understands Lamb is the best player on the team and goes out of its way to get him the ball.
Last season, Lamb saw a 29.9% target share and was targeted on 29.9% of his routes run. The desire to get him the ball early often explains his low 9.5-yard aDOT (average depth of target).
Fortunately, Lamb is one of the best receivers in the league after the catch. He led all receivers last year with 680 yards after the catch, which helped him reach 2.89 yards per route run — fifth in the NFL.
While Cowboys fans undoubtedly wish this team had more offensive weapons, from a fantasy standpoint, it’s a near-perfect environment. Despite Mike McCarthy’s claims about wanting to run the ball, the Cowboys were fourth in the league with a 61% neutral game script pass rate. Dallas also played at the second-fastest pace in the NFL.
Lamb has a top-10 NFL quarterback in Dak Prescott, but no other wide receiver on the roster even touches the top 30. It’s just Lamb. Cooks and Jake Ferguson are solid alternatives, but they don’t threaten Lamb’s volume.
It’s extremely rare to find a wide receiver with elite talent who is also in a great offensive situation saddled with massive opportunity — 99% of the time, there is at least some issue with one of these things. Not with Lamb.
With Justin Jefferson losing Kirk Cousins, he is no longer in the running for being the top WR off the board. It comes down to Lamb, Tyreek Hill, and Ja’Marr Chase.
I’ve debated Lamb and Hill all year — there’s truly no wrong answer. Either way, Lamb shouldn’t make it past the top five picks of 2024 fantasy drafts.
– Analysis by Jason Katz
Brandin Cooks’ Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR Fantasy Points: 158.2 (100.0 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 58.2
- Receiving Yards: 694.0
- Receiving TDs: 4.8
Cooks finished as the WR43 last season, yet he’s currently being drafted as the WR68. Based on the Cowboys’ offensive situation, Cooks will almost certainly outperform his ADP. However, that doesn’t necessarily make him an appealing target in fantasy drafts.
Cooks was third on the Cowboys in targets last season behind Lamb and Ferguson. There’s a chance he could be second this season, but it’s hard to envision him being an impactful fantasy asset.
I have Cooks ranked as my WR60, perfectly in line with consensus. Even though I’m confident he will finish higher than that, I’m not willing to draft him above that spot, and I’m really not interested in him at all.
Outside of very deep leagues, there’s not much value in getting WR4 production from WR5s or WR6s. Sure, it’s more than what you paid for, but it’s still not fantasy-starter-level performance.
It’s unlikely whoever we draft around where Cooks goes is going to matter in fantasy. That player will probably be on the waiver wire by the end of September. So, we might as well take a chance on someone who, at last, has a shot at top-36 production or better.
We know what Cooks is. The last WR on your roster should be chasing upside, and that’s simply not him.
– Katz
Jalen Tolbert’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR Fantasy Points: 106.8 (65.3 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 41.5
- Receiving Yards: 463.5
- Receiving TDs: 3.2
Not many offenses can support the fantasy relevance of three wide receivers, and Dallas also has one of the better tight end options in Ferguson. We haven’t seen the Cowboys have two wide receivers score over 200 fantasy points since 2021, when they had Lamb and Amari Cooper as a pairing. That season, Cedrick Wilson Jr. finished as the WR45 with 147.8 fantasy points.
The last time the Cowboys had three receivers over 150 fantasy points in the same season was in 2021, when Michael Gallup joined Cooper and Lamb. However, their WR1 that season, Cooper, finished as the WR15 with 236.8 fantasy points.
This data shows us that for Tolbert or another WR3 to have significant value for the Cowboys, it would have to eat into Lamb’s ceiling to make it happen.
Tolbert is currently going as the WR82 in fantasy drafts at No. 273 overall. In the majority of leagues, you don’t even need to think about drafting him.
At this stage, the only reason to draft Tolbert is as a deep-league bench stash who can step in as a fantasy option if Lamb were to miss time. Cooks missing time might give Tolbert a shred of relevance, but even then, he wouldn’t be an every-week starting option.
– Analysis by Ben Rolfe
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