Dak Prescott has been a hot topic for most of the 2019 fantasy football season. In dynasty leagues, he’s been a rising asset who is now being considered a top 12 quarterback by most owners. If you were able to get a share or two this past offseason, then you are probably very happy with your investment given this recent rise. But now might be a good time to acquire him if you’re still interested. Let’s look at the numbers to see what’s in store for Dak Prescott’s dynasty stock going forward.
Dak Prescott’s dynasty stock: past, present, and future
Up and down ADP
Throughout Prescott’s career, he’s seen his dynasty ADP rise and fall. Since becoming the starter, his peak overall ADP was at 67 in November of 2017 (QB7) when he started getting into a groove with the team. Shortly after that, he had three straight games without a touchdown, so dynasty owners were getting fed up and trusting him less. He bottomed out a year later in November of 2018, where his ADP hit a low of 184 overall (QB21). As a result, it’s clear that his value has been very up and down in terms of dynasty leagues.
As of December 2019, his current ADP value is 78. That’s almost as high as it’s been in his career, and that’s likely due to the steady production of his teammate Ezekiel Elliott, the addition of Amari Cooper, and the emergence of Michael Gallup. He’s clearly in the QB1 discussion again, and it is well deserved. Just since the start of the 2019 season, his ADP in current drafts shows him going from QB14 to QB6, where he is currently. So why is now a good time to buy him if his stock is at its peak?
The window to buy shares of Dak Prescott is now opening
Obviously, in dynasty leagues with their long term outlook, you don’t want to acquire an asset that’s going to fall in value. That’s a bad process all around. What you want to do is take note of assets that could be trending down for the wrong reasons and target them in your leagues. Prescott is quickly becoming one of those players to look at.
He’s been battling a finger injury for the last few weeks that has potentially caused him to lose some accuracy on his passes and is now reportedly dealing with a shoulder injury as well. In Week 15, Prescott had an OSM score of 12.66, QB26 for the week. His overall score is much higher, 30.31, or QB4. This could mean that Week 15 was an outlier, but it could also be a sign of things to come if the injury concerns are valid.
— David J. Chao (@ProFootballDoc) December 18, 2019
In regard to Prescott’s shoulder injury, ProFootballDoc, David Chao, has voiced some concern over his recent MRI results, explaining that his throwing motion could be impacted by this injury. Because of this, Prescott could see a poor finish to his 2019 season. As of Week 16, the Cowboys are still in the race for the NFC East and a playoff berth with two games to go, so Prescott is unlikely to rest up at all, and thereby increasing his chances for re-injury right when dynasty owners need him the most in their championship matchups.
All of this means that his current owners may be ready to move him in the offseason if he underperforms and loses them the title. Fantasy football is a statistical game, but it has some emotional roots, and some owners could blame him for their bad season and ultimately look to move him at a discount to relieve the stress of seeing him on their rosters. If you can buy Prescott at the right price, this offseason is likely the best time to try.
If you own Dak Prescott in your dynasty league…hold, don’t sell
On the flip side, if you currently own Prescott, then the recommendation is to hold your ground and ride out this new wave of uncertainty. Obviously, you’re starting him in Week 16 if he plays unless you have a better option, which is unlikely given the injuries that are adding up around the league. Once the season is over, you’re likely to get some inquiries on him, but don’t sell unless you get something back to help your team. Just because a buy window is opening doesn’t mean you have to sell. Take a strategic approach and let the numbers do the talking.
In the long run, it’s very likely that Prescott returns to his top 10 QB ranking for 2020. The front office and coaching staff could see some upheaval between now and then, but odds are very good that Prescott will get a new contract making him the franchise quarterback for the next several years. He’s still young and has a long career ahead of him, so don’t let your emotions ruin what could be a perennial stud at the QB position for your dynasty teams. Sell if you want, but don’t feel like you have to. Ultimately, it’s your team to manage how you see fit.
Hit us up on Twitter @PFNFantasy with what you plan to do with Dak Prescott and the rest of the Cowboys in dynasty leagues. Also, continue to visit the Pro Football Network for NFL news and in-depth analysis like the #PFNOSM data while also visiting our Fantasy Football section for more coverage.
Andrew Hall is a writer for PFN covering Fantasy Football. You can follow him on Twitter: @AndrewHallFF