Curtis Samuel Injury Update: Will Fantasy Managers Have the Bills WR for Week 1?

The NFL regular season is 48 hours away, which means football fans and fantasy managers are paying extra close attention to various injuries around the league. What’s the latest on Buffalo Bills WR Curtis Samuel’s health?

The Latest on Curtis Samuel’s Health

Samuel is dealing with turf toe, which kept him sidelined in recent weeks. However, this week, he was able to get in some limited practices, which is promising.

Also, Bills head coach Sean McDermott said last week that Samuel could play in Week 1. We’d much rather hear that he “will” play rather than “could” play, but at least it sounds like Samuel is trending in the right direction. Even if he misses Buffalo’s Week 1 game against the Arizona Cardinals, it seems like he won’t be sidelined very long.

Whether Samuel makes his season debut in Week 1 or 2 shouldn’t impact what you’re doing at the draft in a major way. Either you’re buying his past connection with offensive coordinator Joe Brady and believe he will lead Buffalo in targets, or you’re looking at Keon Coleman/Khalil Shakir for your receiver exposure to Josh Allen.

Jason Katz’s Fantasy Outlook for Samuel

I’ve always been a Samuel guy. Perhaps a bit unfairly labeled as a gadget guy, Samuel has built himself into a very reliable wide receiver. He’s a player quarterbacks can trust; a guy who doesn’t make mistakes.

The issue is, while that’s great for NFL teams, he’s never really seen enough volume to be a consistent fantasy starter. Samuel’s best season came in 2020 when he averaged 14.1 fantasy points per game, finishing as the overall WR27. Other than that, he’s never finished higher than overall WR43 and never averaged more than 10.7 fantasy points per game.

I’m not one to buy too much into an “offensive coordinator loves WR” narrative. However, I would be remiss not to at least mention that Samuel’s offensive coordinator in Carolina in his career 2020 season was Joe Brady, who happens to be the Bills’ current OC. Merely having the same offensive coordinator is not enough to alter a player’s fantasy value.

However, the circumstances Samuel finds himself in this season are perhaps the most favorable of his career. For starters, it goes without saying that Josh Allen is, by far, the best quarterback Samuel has ever played with. Additionally, his competition for targets is not steep. Tight end Dalton Kincaid projects to lead the Bills in targets.

But Allen has to throw to someone else. His options are rookie Keon Coleman, role player (I think) Khalil Shakir, and Samuel. The Bills hope Coleman emerges as their top guy, but Samuel is the reliable veteran. It’s not unrealistic to project him to lead all WRs in targets.