Cowboys vs. Saints Prediction, Pick: Who wins on Thursday Night Football tonight?

Who will go home with a win on Thursday Night Football? Here's our pick and prediction for Cowboys vs. Saints.

The Dallas Cowboys will face off against the New Orleans Saints on Thursday Night Football this week. Dallas has lost two games in a row, but they still sit at the top of the NFC East. New Orleans has lost four consecutive games, and it looks as if they’re making a change at quarterback moving forward. You can find the NFL odds along with a pick and prediction for the Cowboys vs. Saints below.

Dallas Cowboys vs. New Orleans Saints pick, prediction | Week 13

  • Spread: Cowboys -4.5 (Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook)
  • Moneyline: Cowboys -195, Saints +165
  • Over/Under: 47

Can Taysom Hill save the Saints’ season?

The Saints were dealt a devastating blow when starting quarterback Jameis Winston was injured a few weeks ago. They tested out the arm of Trevor Siemian, who didn’t look bad but also couldn’t pick up wins. Instead, they’ll lean on the legs of Taysom Hill.

Hill started four games at quarterback for New Orleans last season. He went 3-1, throwing for 834 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions on 114 attempts. More importantly, Hill added versatility to the Saints’ offense, running for 209 yards and 4 touchdowns over that span.

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Hill brings a different element to the game than Siemian. New Orleans could be a team designed for Hill’s strengths, too. Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram are expected to return this week, and Hill will help open holes for the duo as defenses will be forced to respect his rushing potential.

New Orleans ranks 12th in the NFL in points allowed per play (.357). They’ll be able to control the ball more with Hill, as he can keep the clock running. The Saints have a team that can rely on their run game and defense to win games, and it looks as if they’ll finally test that strategy.

Cowboys vs. Saints betting trends

The Cowboys have been one of the best against the spread (ATS) teams in the NFL. They enter this game with an 8-3 ATS record, which ranks second.

Dallas has looked phenomenal on the road as well, posting a 4-1 road ATS record thus far.

New Orleans hasn’t been nearly as successful, as they’ve recorded a 5-6 ATS record through 11 games. They’ve also struggled at home this season, posting a 1-3 home ATS record, failing to cover by an average of 6.8 points per game.

Both of these teams have found the over more often than not in 2021. They’ve both recorded 6-5 over/under records, ranking fourth in the NFL in over percentage (54.6%).

Cowboys vs. Saints prediction

This game looks relatively simple on paper, but the Vegas odds feel like a trap. Although I believe the Cowboys are the better overall team, they’ll have a short week to prepare for a road matchup against a new quarterback. And that’s if Hill even draws the start.

The Cowboys are a below-average team for run defense, allowing 4.4 yards per carry this season. They’re also dealing with COVID-19 throughout their roster.

I don’t necessarily trust the Saints to win, although I do believe they’re live dogs. Instead, I prefer to take the points in what is one of the most meaningful games for New Orleans so far this season.

Cowboys vs. Saints Prediction: Cowboys 24, Saints 21

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