Top NFL DFS Picks for Thanksgiving Football: For Cowboys vs. Giants, Should Our Lineup Include Tony Pollard, Ezekiel Elliott, and the Expensive Saquon Barkley?

Happy Thanksgiving! Looking for a data- and context-driven Cowboys vs. Giants DFS lineup? Here are PFN's top NFL DFS picks.

Happy Thanksgiving! If you’re looking for Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants NFL DFS picks for Thursday’s turkey celebration in Week 12, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.

The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.

Cowboys Considerations

Coming off an incredible beatdown of the Vikings, the Cowboys are flying high. And facing the overachieving Giants means we need to carefully weigh the values of seven, eight, even nine Cowboys who could thrive tonight.

Candidly (and I’ll always be candid with you), Dallas’ D/ST is the X-factor. The unit has hit 10+ DFS points in six of their last eight outings. The Giants’ offense is bordering on one-dimensional, especially after the brutal loss of Wan’Dale Robinson.

MORE: Early Thanksgiving Week 12 Bargain DFS Targets

As I wrote heading into Week 11, Saquon Barkley was on pace for roughly 500 touches if New York went deep into the postseason. I urged fantasy managers to pick up Matt Breida before Sunday’s game, eyeing historical data suggesting Barkley probably could not sustain this over-usage.

I know this section is about Dallas. But the Giants’ offensive questions figure strongly in how we devise this Cowboys-centric DFS slate.

I’m predicting a 20+ point Dallas victory. The starters might exit by late in the third quarter. The Cowboys’ D/ST might be one of the highest-scoring “players” this evening, and thus, we need to take them seriously.

Giants Considerations

You know what I’m about to say. The expensive Barkley is too rich for me. Earlier this season, particularly against a more favorable opponent, there would be no hesitation.

Yet, after rolling the first seven weeks, he’s struggled in two of his last three games. New York will have little choice but to keep rolling with him, hoping to slow Dallas’ momentum.

At some point, though, this team will have to play catch-up, and they’ll opt to rest Barkley for more winnable games going forward, rather than continuing to trot him out in a hopeless cause.

That opens the door for Breida, or perhaps a secondary receiver we can get on the cheap. I honestly don’t see how Daniel Jones racks up more than 150 total yards. So a 5-1 DFS slate — with only one Giant represented — seems like the right call.

Top Cowboys vs. Giants DFS Lineup for Thanksgiving

Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players.

The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.

Captain: Cowboys D/ST ($8,400)

No surprise. If Dallas’ defense scores 18+ points, we’ll have a great shot at winning big. While anything can (and often does) happen, this decision gives us a lot of financial flexibility with minimal risk.

Flex: QB Dak Prescott, Cowboy ($11,000)

A blowout is a blowout. If it happens, Dak Prescott will benefit, and that’s an understatement.

Flex: WR CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys ($10,800)

See “Dak Prescott.” CeeDee Lamb is his No. 1 target. Even an often impressive Giants defense probably cannot slow down Lamb.

Flex: RB Tony Pollard, Cowboys ($9,800)

The Cowboys’ de facto No. 1 RB. I can’t justify benching someone with so much yardage and TD potential.

Flex: TE Dalton Schultz, Cowboys ($7,000)

One of the top TE playmakers in the league. We still haven’t seen the best of him this season, largely due to injuries to him and to Prescott. They’ll make up more ground tonight.

Flex: WR Isaiah Hodgins, Giants ($2,200)

With only $3,000 remaining, we’ll roll with Isaiah Hodgins. Who? Quite possibly the new WR2 for the G-Men. This is a dart throw. But given his price and how much potential upside we’ve locked in above, it’s reasonable to take a shot on a cheap receiver who could rack up four catches for 50 yards.

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