The Dallas Cowboys headed into their Week 10 bye with a 3-5-1 record after losing at home to the Arizona Cardinals. The season was going as most expected after Micah Parsons was traded to the Green Bay Packers before Week 1.
Dallas won the Monday night game in Las Vegas following its bye week. Then the Cowboys were set to face two Super Bowl contenders and the team with the best record in 2024 within the next 12 days. This challenging stretch appeared likely to diminish the Cowboys’ slim hopes for a postseason appearance.
What Are the Dallas Cowboys’ Chances of Making the Playoffs?
Dallas climbed back to the fringes of the playoff picture and the NFC East race with wins against the Philadelphia Eagles and the Kansas City Chiefs. A Week 14 loss to the Lions pushed the Cowboys back out a little, and the Week 15 loss to the Minnesota Vikings has put them on the brink of elimination.
According to PFSN’s NFL Playoff Predictor, the Cowboys now have just a 1.30% chance of making the playoffs as well as of winning the division. They need to win all their remaining games and hope the Eagles lose all theirs to qualify for the postseason.
The Week 4 tie with the Packers has created a situation where tiebreakers are unlikely to impact the Cowboys’ playoff chances. Dallas will have a different win-loss record compared to the teams close to them in the standings, unless they finish with the same record as the Packers, or if there’s a tie involving another NFC team competing with Dallas for a playoff spot.
NAILOR! AGAIN!@jjmccarthy09 @jalennailor#ProBowlVote
đź“ş: @SNFonNBC pic.twitter.com/JnsDToU2Mn
— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) December 15, 2025
Dallas must match or surpass a team’s win total to move ahead of them in the standings. Matching a team’s loss total wouldn’t be enough because that team would have one more win. The Cowboys are two wins behind the Eagles for first place in the NFC East and three wins behind the Bears for the last NFC Wild Card spot.
MORE:Â 2026 3-Round NFL Mock Draft: Jets, Raiders Trade Up for Quarterbacks in Round 1
Dallas has looked like a different team with the addition of Quinnen Williams to the defensive line. Williams hasn’t made the Cowboys into an elite defense, but they have become closer to average, and with the quality of the offense, that makes a big difference.
The Cowboys had a PFSN Defensive Impact grade of C- or better in three of the four games Williams has played. Dallas had a C- or better in four of the nine games before the trade.
Cowboys’ Remaining 2025 Schedule
The Cowboys have a favorable schedule to finish the season, but by no means are any of the games a locked-in win. Dallas is favored to win each of the final three games according to PFSN Analytics.
- Week 16: vs. Los Angeles Chargers (50.5% chance to win)
- Week 17: at Washington (58.2% chance to win)
- Week 18: at New York Giants (61.1% chance to win)
The Cowboys will have a quick turnaround to play the Commanders on Christmas Day, which falls on a Thursday. Consequently, Dallas would then have extra days of rest heading into Week 18.
The good news for the Cowboys is they have the seventh-easiest remaining schedule this season, according to PFSN’s Strength of Schedule metric. The bad news is the Eagles have the fifth-easiest schedule. Dallas needs Philadelphia to lose at least twice.
Philadelphia is favored to win two of the final three games, according to PFSN Analytics.
- Week 16: at Washington (62.1% chance to win)
- Week 17: at Buffalo (44.7% chance to win)
- Week 18: vs. Washington (65.0% chance to win)
