In fantasy football, your decisions will make or break the team. These decisions are not usually based on your superstars but on the players on the edge of being benched. Our rankings suggest that you must determine who to start this week between Courtland Sutton and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Both players struggled through Week 1 but have an opportunity in Week 2 to make their draft cost warranted for your fantasy team.
This week, the Denver Broncos will welcome the Pittsburgh Steelers into their home while the Seattle Seahawks head to New England to face the Patriots. Can either player demand a starting role on our fantasy football team? Let’s discuss the key insights that will determine the better play.
Which WR Should You Choose From Courtland Sutton and Jaxon Smith-Njigba?
In the Pro Football Network Start/Sit Optimizer, PFN’s Consensus Rankings state that Smith-Njigba is the player to start. His 9.4 slightly edges out the 9.0 projected for Sutton this week.
Although his matchup seems better on paper, we disagree with the rankings from the optimizer. Sutton’s target share opportunities combined with his higher air yards per target guide us to the Broncos wide receiver. We should always aim for the WR1 over a wide receiver struggling to see the ball and, quite possibly, the team’s WR3 on any given play.
Sutton’s Fantasy Outlook this Week
We begin with Sutton. It was a choppy debut for his rookie quarterback, Bo Nix, which affected Sutton’s ability to dominate the game. At best, Sutton’s stat line was average, with four receptions for 48 yards.
However, diving deeper into TruMedia, you notice that Sutton is a target hog. His 12 targets during this game ranked second-best throughout the entire NFL. He also ran the seventh most routes of any player last week and produced the 13th-highest air yards per target in the league.
The result may not have shown for Week 1, but Sutton has a chance for positive regression in Week 2. It won’t be easy, as the Steelers allowed the fifth-lowest number of receiving yards to wide receivers last week, with only 82 yards surrendered. However, Sutton’s target share is enough to keep him in the starter category.
Courtland Sutton is one of only five WRs in the NFL to average 55+ catches/year and 13 yards/catch from 2021-2023, per @Tyler_Gorse_.
He joins elite company:
Justin Jefferson
Mike Evans
A.J. Brown
Brandon Aiyuk
Courtland Sutton— Zac Stevens (@ZacStevensDNVR) September 13, 2024
Smith-Njigba’s Fantasy Outlook This Week
Smith-Njigba was a no-show in Week 1 for our fantasy football team. He caught 100% of his targets but only saw two of them and produced 19 yards total. He only ran 25 routes, which was 82nd overall in the NFL.
His skill set out of college had fantasy football managers believing he could be the next big thing, yet his routes ran fell behind players like Zach Ertz and Ja’Tavion Sanders.
The issue with Smith-Njigba revolves around his low-value targets. His 3.00 air yards per target were 102, the best in the NFL. He also couldn’t break tackles to create plays like he did in college. His 13 yards after the catch were 81st overall in Week 1.
Kyle Soppe’s Fantasy Outlook for Sutton and Smith-Njigba
Courtland Sutton: I said it this preseason and I stand by it – this Nix season could look a lot like Will Levis’ as a rookie. That may sound damning, and for season-long managers, it is. Recklessness without experience is a problem, and we saw as much from Nix on Sunday in Seattle.
That said, when the stars align for a chaotic QB, the results can be special. Sutton (28.6% Week 1 target share) isn’t a top-36 receiver for me this week, a ranking I think will be the case more often than not. But I’m going to leave the light on as Nix develops and the matchups soften.
If Nix can show me a flicker of growth in this brutal matchup, I’ll be putting Sutton on DFS rosters next week in Tampa Bay.
I’ll set the over/under at 3.5 for the number of top-20 weeks from Sutton this season, and I think I’d bet on the “over.” Check back every week to see when I’m putting my chest into my ranking of him. But it’s not this week against a Steelers defense that held Drake London and Kyle Pitts to 41 yards on six targets last week.
Jaxon Smith-Nijgba: Catching two passes for 19 yards isn’t exactly the start to a Year 2 breakout that we were hoping for, but Smith-Njigba did run 25% more routes than Tyler Lockett.
Now, the veteran out-produced him in a major way, but if this is going to be a conservative offense, I still think JSN can grow into a PPR Flex player.
aDOT since 2023:
- Metcalf: 12.9 yards
- Lockett: 10.9 yards
- Smith-Njigba: 6.1 yards
Metcalf and Lockett will lead this receiver room in 20+ point games, but I expect Smith-Njigba to be competitive in the number of usable weeks by way of a consistently efficient role.
Exciting? Probably not. The type of player that you can use as glue in November as you battle byes and injuries? I still think so.