Corey Davis Fantasy Outlook: Start or sit in Week 16

After putting together an impressive season, can Corey Davis help you in your fantasy football playoffs in Week 16? Let’s take a look at his impressive 2020 season, the situation in Tennessee, and the Week 16 matchup facing Davis.

Corey Davis has put together a career year in 2020

After being selected fifth overall in the 2017 NFL Draft, big things were expected from Corey Davis. However, Davis’ career has been bumpy, to say the least. His rookie season was underwhelming with just a 52.3% catch rate and 375 receiving yards. He saw a big boost in 2018, with 112 targets and 891 receiving yards, but his catch rate was still just 58.0%.

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He bumped that catch rate to 62.3% in 2019 but managed just 601 receiving yards. However, he has put it all together in the 2020 season. 79 targets have turned into 60 receptions, 945 yards, and five touchdowns. With a 75.9% catch rate, Davis has cemented himself as a reliable part of this Tennessee offense.

Davis enters Week 16 as a top-20 fantasy wide receiver

After averaging just 7.7 PPR fantasy points per game in 2019, expectations for Corey Davis in 2020 were low. He was widely undrafted, being taken on average as the 79th receiver in drafts. However, he has outplayed those expectations to the tune of 15.2 fantasy points per game.

On a per-game basis, Davis ranks as the 18th receiver in PPR scoring (17th in standard). Even more impressive is that Davis has been a consistent weapon for fantasy managers. The fourth-year receiver ranks 19th in Pro Football Network’s Consistency Score, with a career-high score of 4.62.

Davis’ career season has come off the back of him maximizing opportunities. In his first three seasons, Davis posted a negative Fantasy Points Differential (FPD). FPD measures a receiver’s ability to take targets and turn them into fantasy points. Davis’ relatively low catch rates in those three seasons hurt him greatly. In the 2020 season, Davis has posted an FPD of 28%, the 18th best number at the position.

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Corey Davis has remained under the radar in 2020

On an offense with Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown, it is no surprise that Davis is not the headline act. Henry and Brown have combined for over 2,500 yards and 25 touchdowns this season. However, the most reliable weapon after Derrick Henry has actually been Davis.

Brown is catching 64.4% of his targets and has 881 yards to go with his 10 touchdowns. All of those are solid numbers, but outside of the touchdowns, Davis has been better. Davis has more receptions and yards while also averaging more yards per reception (15.8 vs. 15.7) and 18.8% more yards per target (12.0 vs. 10.1).

As great as Brown has been this season, Corey Davis has been the reliable target for quarterback Ryan Tannehill. That dependability earns trust, which invites volume.

Davis succeeds in fantasy despite a relative lack of targets

Corey Davis’ reliability is also great for fantasy managers. Of the names in the top 25 receiving options, no one has fewer targets per game than Davis (6.6). Therefore, Davis has to capitalize on every opportunity, something that he does extremely well.

No qualified receiver in the whole of the NFL has more yards per target than Davis. Just seven players average a higher number of yards per reception than the Titans receiver.

Take last week as a prime example. Davis took his six targets for 110 yards (18.3 yards per target). There have only been three games this season where Davis returned under 10 yards per target, and none have been in his past six games.

Should you start or sit Corey Davis in your fantasy playoffs in Week 16?

The Titans face a huge game on Sunday night as they face the Green Bay Packers. This game will be a test for both sides, and the Titans’ offense needs to be firing on all cylinders. Can you trust Corey Davis to step up big for both the Titans and fantasy managers in Week 16?

The Green Bay Packers are a tough matchup for wide receivers

Entering Week 16, the Packers appear to be a tough matchup for opposing wide receivers. In PPR formats, they allow the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game, eighth-fewest in standard formats.

In terms of Pro Football Network’s Defensive Points Allowed Consistency Score, they rank as the seventh-toughest matchup in PPR formats and 11th-toughest in standard formats.

They allow just 11.9 receptions per game and 151.4 yards per game to the position. When it comes to allowing receiving touchdowns, they are tied for the seventh-fewest (13).

Last week, they kept D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, and Curtis Samuel out of the end zone. In Week 14, they froze the Lions receivers out as well. The last receiver to score against the Packers was Greg Ward when the defense was playing softly in Week 13.

The cornerback matchup is key for Corey Davis in Week 16

Who Corey Davis draws coverage from in Week 16 will be what determines his fantasy value. With a completion percentage against of 53.5, Jaire Alexander ranks as the 13th-toughest corner to go up against in the NFL. He allows fewer than 10 yards per reception and has allowed just two touchdowns all season. Alexander tends not to shadow bigger WRs, so expectations are he will follow A.J. Brown in Week 16.

Kevin King is only allowing a 59.1 completion percentage against, but he is allowing 15.2 yards per completion. Either King or Chandon Sullivan is the ideal matchup for Davis, with both allowing over 13 yards per reception to opposing receivers. If Alexander is also limiting the effect of Brown, then Davis could see a boost in targets.

It is hard to do anything other than trust Corey Davis in the fantasy playoffs in Week 16. Davis has failed to score double-digits in PPR leagues just twice this season. In standard formats, he is a little more unreliable, but Davis remains a WR2 this week and someone you have to trust in what could be an entertaining Sunday Night Football clash.

Want more fantasy football analysis and news?

Be sure to follow us on Twitter: @PFN365 to stay up to date with all things around the NFL and the 2020 fantasy football season. Also, continue to visit Pro Football Network for NFL news and in-depth analysis while also seeing our fantasy football section for more coverage and up-to-date rankings.

Ben Rolfe is a Senior Managing Editor at Pro Football Network and is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA). You can find him on Twitter @BenRolfePFN.

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