The 2024 NFL season kicks off in 10 days, and Brandon Aiyuk is still a member of the San Francisco 49ers.
That didn’t appear to be a likely outcome earlier this month, when Aiyuk’s name was the hottest on the NFL trade blocks. While trades with the New England Patriots, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Cleveland Browns have been on the table, no deal has come to fruition.
The Washington Commanders have also been listed as a potential Aiyuk suitor, and at least one report recently suggested the NFC East club remains in contention for the second-team All-Pro. What would a trade between San Francisco and Washington look like?
Would the 49ers Accept a Conditional Pick for Brandon Aiyuk?
Aiyuk has been linked to the Commanders since at least June. He was teammates with rookie Washington quarterback Jayden Daniels at Arizona State and listed the nation’s capital as one of his preferred destinations earlier this year.
On Thursday, the San Francisco Chronicle’s Mike Silver told KNBR that he “wouldn’t rule out Washington” as an Aiyuk landing spot.
On Friday, Ari Meirov of The 33rd Team listed multiple reasons why the 49ers and Commanders haven’t agreed to an Aiyuk trade.
“Those talks didn’t go anywhere, simply because A) They were not going to trade (Terry) McLaurin to San Francisco, and the 49ers did not want (Jahan) Dotson,” Meirov said.
“And then No. 3, if there were no receivers going back, the 49ers wanted a first-round pick, which their GM Adam Peters said is a non-starter, it’s not happening.”
Over the next couple of days, we'll be watching to see if the #Commanders try to add another WR after trading Jahan Dotson, who wasn’t a good fit for them.
Full 15-minute daily show (8/23/24):
A: https://t.co/yiUdzoTDgp
S: https://t.co/98ZekENzTy pic.twitter.com/Hkdu6HvyeU— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) August 23, 2024
San Francisco has reportedly wanted its potential trade partners to include a veteran wide receiver in their offers. Cleveland’s proposal featured Amari Cooper, while New England was willing to send Kendrick Bourne back to the Bay Area.
Dotson has struggled through two NFL seasons, so it’s no surprise the 49ers didn’t view him as a suitable Aiyuk replacement. Washington eventually traded Dotson, its 2022 first-round pick, to the division-rival Philadelphia Eagles last week.
From Washington’s perspective, you can understand why it would be reluctant to give up a first-round pick. While the Commanders should improve after changing regimes, selecting Daniels, and supplementing the rest of their roster through free agency and the draft, their 2024 projected win total is still just 6.5.
Three other teams are tied at 6.5 wins: the Las Vegas Raiders, New York Giants, and Tennessee Titans. Only three clubs — the Carolina Panthers, Denver Broncos, and New England Patriots — have totals under six.
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There’s a non-zero chance that Washington will be the NFL’s worst team in 2024. Peters and the rest of the team’s front office don’t want to risk giving up a top-five selection — or potentially even the No. 1 overall pick — for Aiyuk.
The NFL doesn’t allow teams to “protect” traded draft picks like the NBA does. For example, in the NBA, a club could trade a “top-10 protected pick.” If that traded choice does end up in the top 10 of the following draft, the original team gets to keep it.
Eventually, that original team would have to give up something, whether it’s a second-round pick or a first-rounder in a future draft. But protected picks let clubs ensure they aren’t giving away too valuable of draft capital.
While protected picks aren’t yet part of NFL transactions, the league does allow draft picks to be traded with conditions. The Green Bay Packers negotiated a conditional pick as part of their return from the New York Jets in last year’s Aaron Rodgers trade.
Had Rodgers played 65% of New York’s offensive snaps in 2023, Green Bay would have received the Jets’ 2024 first-round pick. But because Rodgers missed most of the season, that choice was downgraded to a second-rounder.
The Commanders could try to get the 49ers to agree to a similar deal for Aiyuk. Instead of using Aiyuk’s playing time as a condition, the two sides could use Washington’s win-loss record.
San Francisco would nominally acquire Washington’s 2025 second-round pick. But if the Commanders win, say, nine games, that choice gets upgraded to a Round 1 selection.
If Washington wins nine-plus games, the 49ers would end up with a first-round pick somewhere in the 15-32 range. The Commanders wouldn’t feel like they’re giving up too much, while San Francisco wouldn’t get hosed.
If Washington wins fewer than nine games, the 49ers would get a Round 2 choice that would likely fall between Nos. 33 and 50. San Francisco’s return is worse in this scenario; the two sides could theoretically negotiate another clause requiring the Commanders to send a mid-round pick along with the second-rounder to make up the difference.
Either way, using a conditional pick would ease Washington’s fear of sacrificing a top-five pick for Aiyuk while giving the 49ers a fair return.