The Washington Commanders are starting over once again with a new coaching staff, which includes a new offensive coordinator in one-time Arizona Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury.
The backfield made a noteworthy offseason addition as well in Austin Ekeler, but Brian Robinson Jr. remains the primary early-down back going into the 2024 regular season after compiling 1,109 total yards and nine touchdowns across 15 regular-season games in 2023.
How will Washington’s backfield shake out from a fantasy football perspective this coming season? Let’s take a closer look at the outlooks for Robinson and Ekeler heading into the 2024 campaign.
Brian Robinson Jr.’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR fantasy Points: 197.6 (170.2 Non-PPR)
- Rushing Yards: 1002.1
- Rushing Touchdowns: 4.3
- Receptions: 27.4
- Receiving Yards: 256.7
- Receiving Touchdowns: 3.0
Robinson’s RB21 overall finish with 1,101 total yards and nine TDs in 2023 certainly shouldn’t be viewed as a negative. He managed to relegate Antonio Gibson to nothing more than a complementary option in this offense and score eight touchdowns through the first 10 games of the season.
Considering no team threw the ball more than the Commanders in 2023, his leading role on the ground and 36 receptions for 368 yards in the passing game suggested he can be a three-down feature back in the NFL.
On the flip side, only Robinson and Alvin Kamara finished as an RB2 last year without a 100-yard rushing performance on the season. Robinson’s efficiency and usage improved across the board last year; however, it doesn’t exactly suggest he is a dominant force as a runner who has unquestioned job security with a completely new coaching regime in town this upcoming season.
Could some of his lack of great rushing performances have to do with the play-calling and struggles along the offensive line last year? Certainly, former offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy wasn’t exactly committed to running the football in 2023. Robinson’s 2.4 yards before contact per attempt is lumped in with names like Kamara, Breece Hall, and Rachaad White — players who operated behind struggling offensive lines last year.
Now it’s time to look forward to 2024. There is a new head coach (Dan Quinn), new offensive coordinator (Kingsbury), new quarterback (Jayden Daniels), and new running back (Ekeler) in town this season, completely changing the look of this entire offensive unit.
Robinson’s ADP of No. 92 overall as the RB32 off the board actually feels a bit disrespectful given the success we saw from him last year. There is definitely a case to be made that this offense could be much better than people expect with the vast amount of additions and potential improvements made this offseason.
Ekeler is truly the wild card here. If he isn’t washed like many are assuming, then Robinson’s current fantasy price is appropriate. Yet, if he is slated to be the leading ball carrier with Ekeler factoring in on passing downs, Robinson actually feels like a quality buy at this draft-day price who could produce RB2 production in an improved offense.
– Derek Tate, Fantasy Football Analyst
Austin Ekeler’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR fantasy Points: 163.5 (122.9 Non-PPR)
- Rushing Yards: 440.9
- Rushing Touchdowns: 5.3
- Receptions: 40.6
- Receiving Yards: 323.2
- Receiving Touchdowns: 2.5
Before 2023, Ekeler had posted four straight RB1 seasons, including two straight at about 21 fantasy points per game. Then, last year happened.
Ekeler first truly burst onto the scene in 2018. That was the first year in which he was a fantasy-relevant asset, albeit barely while averaging 11.6 points per game. Last season was his worst year since then, averaging a mere 13.2 points per game.
Previously one of the most efficient backs in the league, Ekeler averaged a mere 3.5 yards per carry last season. Consistently near the top of the league in target share, Ekeler was at 14.7% last season, eighth in the league.
While he was able to make the occasional big play, Ekeler struggled to produce them consistently. A mere 2.2% of his carries went for 15+ yards.
Entering his age-29 season, there are certainly reasons to ask whether Ekeler is declining. It’s important to note he was still able to average a respectable 4.6 yards per touch last season, and his 4.02 yards created per touch was inside the top 10.
The first key to Ekeler rebounding this year is keeping him on the field. For years, the Chargers were searching for the perfect complementary back to Ekeler — a new Melvin Gordon III type — to take some of the workload. Robinson is the perfect guy for that job.
Ekeler can now move into more of a satellite-back role. He can handle 8-10 carries per game while doing most of his damage as a receiver. The hope is this level of usage helps him maintain his effectiveness and stay on the field.
Targets are worth about 2.5 times more than carries. Ekeler can be an RB2 on limited volume. But there needs to be some volume. Daniels should be a boon to the offense overall, but how frequently is the mobile QB going to throw to running backs? Ekeler may only see a 12-14% target share, and that may be of a smaller target pie.
You can paint a picture in which the Commanders have a better-than-expected offense with Ekeler returning low RB2 value. Of course, you can paint a picture where he completely fails. But at RB38, there’s not much risk.
– Jason Katz, Fantasy Football Analyst
Join Theo Ash: Your Football Opinion
Listen to the Your Football Opinion with Theo Ash! Click the embedded player below to listen, or you can find this podcast on iTunes, Spotify, and all major podcast platforms. Be sure to subscribe and leave us a five-star review! Rather watch instead? Find us on the Pro Football Network YouTube Channel!