Evaluating game flow is the top priority when it comes to crafting same-game parlay picks, and a game with a big spread like this makes that a little easier. That said, the story that we tell with our bets can be unique and allow us to juice up this ticket a bit!
Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys Odds
Commanders +455, Cowboys -625
We here at Soppe HQ like to encourage responsible gaming, and in that vein, I’ll always offer you a trivia question off the top of these articles. Pose this question to a buddy you are watching the game with. Answer correctly, and you pay for the SGP; misfire, and he/she is on the hook.
Trivia Question: True or false — Emmitt Smith averaged more than a touchdown per game over his Hall of Fame career against the Washington franchise?
We are 11 weeks into the NFL season, and we know exactly what the Washington Commanders want to do: throw the rock. They’ve been a top-five offense in pass rate over expectation for a month now, and it’s difficult to envision that changing anytime soon.
With that in mind — and a big spread where the pass expectation is going to be high anyway — why not target volume-oriented props tied to Sam Howell?
Given this total, we expect there to be some points put on the board. In games this season when there are over 40 total points scored, Howell is completing 32 passes per game. That’s well above his listed prop, and if we can determine where those passes are going, we can correlate and improve our payout.
Over Washington’s past five losses, Logan Thomas is averaging 5.8 receptions per game. Since the beginning of October, the big tight end has hauled in 78.7% of his targets, a level of efficiency that leads to elite catch volume, given the style of this offense.
The Dallas Cowboys also own the ninth-lowest opponent aDOT, as they ask opposing offenses to take their medicine all the way down the field — works for me!
On the Dallas side of things, Dak Prescott is playing at an elite level. He owns the second-lowest poor throw rate in the league (Patrick Mahomes is the leader). Against a below-average defense in terms of pressure rate, there’s little reason to think Prescott will be uncomfortable in this spot.
If you remove a stinker against arguably the best team in the league, Prescott has been intercepted on just three of 314 throws this season. With the Cowboys likely playing with a lead and thus further dialing back his aggression, a clean game from the Cowboys signal caller is a nice way to wrap up this SGP.
- Trivia Answer: False. Smith scored 24 times in 24 games against Washington, which is not over a touchdown per game.
- Same Game Parlay Pick: Logan Thomas over 4.5 receptions, Sam Howell over 25.5 completions, Dak Prescott under 0.5 interceptions
- Odds: +445 (at DraftKings)
Our Betting Lines page has the freshest lines and promos to get BANG for your buck. PFN’s FREE Parlay Calculator and Betting Odds Calculator are also available for your betting process! New to sports betting? Check out our guide on How to Bet on the NFL. Visit our Sports Betting Legal Tracker on how to bet legally in the U.S.