The Washington Commanders enter 2024 with a new coaching staff and a new quarterback, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers lost the offensive coordinator many credit with the majority of their success. That makes this game one that fantasy football managers will be keeping a keen eye on this week. Which players on those teams should you have in your lineups right now?
By combining our projections and our data insights around what we can predict for these teams, here is our start/sit advice for the Commanders vs. Buccaneers matchup.
- Spread: Buccaneers -3.5
- Total: 44
- Commanders implied points: 20.3
- Buccaneers implied points: 23.8
The projections in this article are from PFN’s consensus projection system. To see the latest projections for every player, check out PFN’s Start/Sit tool.
Is Jayden Daniels an Immediate Fantasy QB Starting Option?
- Fantasy Points: 17.5
- Passing Yards: 222.2
- Passing TDs: 1.0
- Interceptions: 0.6
- Rushing Yards: 36.8
- Rushing TDs: 0.3
If you drafted Daniels, you did so with his ceiling games in mind, and this could be one of them. Last season, the Buccaneers blitzed at the third-highest rate and allowed the eighth-most yards per pass attempt – is that not the perfect formula for Daniels’ profile?
The concern with the pride of LSU is his ability to process at the NFL level, but he might not need to in Week 1. If his first read is open (and it will be on occasion given Tampa Bay’s inconsistencies at the second level), he takes it. If it’s not because the Bucs guess right when they are blitzing, then the 6’4” athletic marvel gets out of the pocket and you watch the fantasy points pile up with him in space.
From a game script perspective, things could work out. I have my questions about Tampa Bay’s ability to run the ball (fourth in percentage of yards that came through the air last season), and if they operate similarly in this matchup, that is perfect for Daniels.
Either Baker Mayfield’s passes are hitting the turf and stopping the clock or they are picking up chunks (Washington allowed the third most yards per pass last season) and forcing Daniels to play catchup.
Like you, I have my concerns about the rookie’s support at his disposal, something that didn’t improve with trading Jahan Dotson ahead of the third week of the preseason. That is likely to result in some valleys this season, but that’s more of a concern in October (Browns and Ravens to open the month) than September (Buccaneers, Giants, Bengals, and Cardinals).
Will Baker Mayfield Have Fantasy Viability in 2024?
- Fantasy Points: 13.4
- Passing Yards: 202.4
- Passing TDs: 1.2
- Interceptions: 0.7
- Rushing Yards: 8.5
- Rushing TDs: 0.1
I think a lot of what we saw from Mayfield last season is going to be difficult to repeat, though I think he’s a fine QB2 in this spot. Last season, Washington allowed an average passer rating of 105.7, not only the highest in the league but the worst defensive showing since the pandemic season of 2020.
The structure of this offense is a favorable one (viable pass-catching options and a versatile back that is more of an asset out of the backfield than between the tackles), and that is going to result in a few usable weeks – but I’m confident that you have one of the 17 quarterbacks I rank higher this week on your roster.
Can Brian Robinson Jr. Be a Fantasy Starter at RB?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 9.3
- Rushing Yards: 45.3
- Rushing TDs: 0.3
- Receptions: 1.2
- Receiving Yards: 14.2
- Receiving TDs: 0.1
I like Robinson this season more than most, but the optimism doesn’t carry over to the season opener. If Austin Ekeler is ever going to consistently cut into his touch count, it’ll come early in the season, thus making an 18+ touch afternoon somewhat of a longshot.
I think we see the volume turn in his favor before long, but without it, the ceiling isn’t that high. Only once last season did an RB reach 20 PPR points against the Bucs without having 24+ touches (Jonathan Taylor in Week 12; I like Robinson as much as anyone, and I think we can agree he’s no J.T.) With the third-best red-zone defense on the other end, this isn’t as favorable of a matchup as you might assume.
I’m Flexing Robinson in a few spots (ahead of Jerome Ford and Chuba Hubbard in my ranks) this week with the expectation of 10-12 PPR points. The logic behind the love for him this season was a cheap bet on an offense that could overachieve and his continued development as a pass catcher. I remain bullish on the player for the marathon that is the fantasy season, even if the first sprint isn’t an impressive one.
Is Austin Ekeler Still a Reliable Fantasy Option?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 7.7
- Rushing Yards: 20.9
- Rushing TDs: 0.3
- Receptions: 1.9
- Receiving Yards: 15.3
- Receiving TDs: 0.1
I was vocal in my support of Robinson this offseason and that, naturally, comes layered with a bet against Ekeler. The one-time fantasy god came in 21.1% below fantasy expectations last season, a bad mark for anyone, let alone someone whose baseline was 17.7% over expectation.
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The Buccaneers excelled in a few areas on the defensive side of the ball last season, but they were top six in both opponent yards per pass attempt and yards per completion to running backs. Ekeler, in my opinion, has a thin path to fantasy upside; if the production in the passing game is at all limited, he’s poised to hurt you more often than help.
Keep him rostered, but try not to get sucked in by the value that this name has held in the past.
Can Rachaad White Be a Fantasy RB1 Option This Season?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 14.7
- Rushing Yards: 52.0
- Rushing TDs: 0.2
- Receptions: 4.0
- Receiving Yards: 29.6
- Receiving TDs: 0.2
I’ve been lower on White than the industry for like 10 months now. Yes, that means I was burned in a significant way for the second half of last season, but I remain sold on the process – an inefficient back playing for an offense I don’t trust carries too much risk to rely on consistently.
I’m back for more fading of White this season … just not this week. The Commanders saw opponents throw 7.2 passes per game to running backs (fourth most) and were a bottom-10 rush defense in yards and yards per carry. In essence, every type of back found a way to victimize this defense, and 2024 should feature more of the same.
It wouldn’t surprise me at all if we were talking about White as a sell-high by the middle of October, but we can cross that bridge when we get to it. For now, you can play your third-round pick with confidence as a top-15 option in PPR formats with a reasonably stable floor.
Will This Finally Be the QB Who Extracts Terry McLaurin’s True Fantasy Value?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 11.3
- Receptions: 4.1
- Receiving Yards: 56.6
- Receiving TDs: 0.2
Last season wasn’t pretty, as McLaurin averaged a career-low 1.56 yards per route run. Bringing in an athletic quarterback is no lock to fix that efficiency problem, but I like the chances of this offense being in scoring positions more often this year than last. That gives their unquestioned top target earner a chance to produce his best season.
Even in an uneven 2023 campaign, McLaurin posted six top-24 finishes (two top-10s). On the opposing sideline is a less-than-intimidating secondary, making his sheer volume of projectable looks worthy of a top-30 ranking. I’d play him in Tampa Bay over the likes of Stefon Diggs and Jayden Reed, two receivers who are on far superior offenses but figure to see 2-4 fewer opportunities.
Starting McLaurin this week is a bit of a leap of faith given how little we know about Daniels at the professional level, but if he is as dynamic on the ground as we assume and his passing grades are near accurate, his WR1 should be able to do enough in PPR formats to reward your trust in a plus-matchup.
Is Rookie WR Luke McCaffrey Startable in Week 1?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 5.1
- Receptions: 2.1
- Receiving Yards: 22.6
- Receiving TDs: 0.1
I don’t think there was a “big” winner from the Jahan Dotson trade, but it did clear a path for McCaffrey to get on the field with regularity as a rookie; that’s at least interesting in an offense that could be pretty good in short order.
I liked him as a late stash during the draft season, but if he’s sitting on your waiver wire, I think he can stay there for now. The Bucs ranked 11th in opponent passer rating on short passes (under 15 yards) and 28th on deep passes (15+ air yards, 19.8% worse than league average), not exactly the optimal opponent for a receiver who relies on YAC.
The backend of your roster can be a revolving door – I think it’ll land on McCaffrey at some point, just not to open the season.
Should Fantasy Managers Have Any Concerns About Mike Evans?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 15.3
- Receptions: 4.6
- Receiving Yards: 67.6
- Receiving TDs: 0.6
Being out on Evans after the big 2023 season was one of my bolder calls this preseason, and I’m sticking with it. I don’t think he lives up to an ADP that is 50+ spots higher than it was 12 months ago — but that doesn’t mean he’s going to fail every week.
Tampa Bay’s WR1 gets to face a defense that allowed 16 touchdown passes of 25+ yards last season. Yes, that led the league. Obviously. In fact, it was more such scores than the Bills, Chiefs, Packers, Panthers, and Giants allowed combined.
Evans caught nine touchdown passes of 15+ air yards last season, the most in the league and good for a career-best.
In short, I don’t want you knocking on my virtual door to troll me about the Evans dud season prediction. I made that call knowing what stood in front of him in Week 1.
Can Chris Godwin Remain a Fantasy Starting Option?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 11.6
- Receptions: 4.9
- Receiving Yards: 53.7
- Receiving TDs: 0.2
If this Mayfield offense is actually a house of cards, Godwin stands to lose the most value. I understand that he came on late last season (WR7 in total PPR points from Weeks 15-17, ranking ahead of Tyreek Hill), but he had the lowest slot usage of his career, and that is where a production floor can be established.
With White seeing plenty of those short-yardage targets and Godwin’s role downfield very much unstable, there is more risk than reward in this profile for me, even in a great spot. He ranks just outside of my top 30 at the position — I’d rather bet on offenses I trust more like Green Bay (Jayden Reed), Baltimore (Zay Flowers), or Houston (I wouldn’t blame you for playing three Texans ahead of Godwin!).
Will Cade Otton Emerge as a Solid Fantasy Option at Tight End?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 7.7
- Receptions: 3.3
- Receiving Yards: 31.2
- Receiving TDs: 0.2
The king of the routes (second at the position and the Buccaneers’ team leader) is always on the field and rarely in fantasy lineups. It’s been over 10 months since the last time he reached 50 receiving yards in a regular season game.
The upside isn’t nearly enough to justify plugging him into a season-long league, but this matchup could make him an interesting DraftKings punt play in a PPR setting. The Commanders allowed the third most yards per pass attempt on balls thrown less than 10 yards down the field – a five-catch, 55-yard performance would be enough to justify his price tag.