If you’re planning to bet on Week 12 NFL player props for this fascinating Indianapolis Colts vs. Pittsburgh Steelers matchup on Monday Night Football, then you’ve come to the right place.
We’ve analyzed the game’s highest-probability scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated and which could fall short of expectations. All prop bets are based on DraftKings Sportsbook, BetMGM, or FanDuel Sportsbook, where you can get a no-sweat first bet up to $1,000.
Top Colts vs. Steelers Player Prop Bets To Target
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
These recommended bets assume the Colts will win by a rough score of 26-16. Indy hasn’t played turnover-free football since Week 6. Their star running back has coughed up three balls since early October. As a result, they have the second-worst turnover differential in the league, which has contributed to their subpar offensive time of possession and a 4-6-1 record.
I believe ball security will be the key to their victory tonight, allowing their running game to do what it does best, while their passing game continues to operate in a more controlled fashion. Indianapolis’ strong defense will take care of the rest.
Matt Ryan Player Props
In his first seven games of the season, Matt Ryan averaged 42.4 pass attempts. Then the (former) Colts head coach benched him. Then the newly installed head coach returned Ryan to the helm, and the veteran QB has averaged only 30.0 pass attempts in his first two games back.
MORE: Colts vs. Steelers Monday Night Football NFL DFS Picks
I’m banking on more of the same, as Ryan picks his spots while Jonathan Taylor carries the heaviest load. As a result, I’m envisioning another relatively quiet (and victorious) performance for the future Hall of Famer — but with a couple of short TD passes against the vulnerable Pittsburgh defense.
- Passing yards under 236.5
(-113) — FanDuel
- Passing touchdowns over 1.5
(+126) — FanDuel
- Interceptions under 0.5
(EVEN) — DraftKings
Jonathan Taylor Player Props
Taylor is gearing up for a strong second-half run to help lift this franchise to a seemingly unlikely postseason berth. He’ll get all he can handle against a tough Pittsburgh run defense that is surrendering only 4.0 yards per carry and a mere five rushing scores. Volume is king, including tonight.
- Rushing yards over 83.5
(-113) — FanDuel
- Receiving yards over 12.5
(-120) — DraftKings
Parris Campbell Player Props
We’ve waited a long time for Parris Campbell’s breakout. If you’re a fan, it’s beautiful to see, as injuries curtailed his first three professional seasons. He’s tallied 43+ receiving yards in five of six games while establishing a strong rapport with Ryan. Enough said.
- Receiving yards over 42.5
(-114) — BetMGM
Alec Pierce Player Props
This recommendation might seem farfetched. After all, Alec Pierce has averaged only 5.1 fantasy points in his last five games. His only NFL touchdown occurred in Week 6. The rookie appears to be the No. 4 offensive option in the NFL’s second-lowest-scoring team.
But the Steelers have given up only five rushing scores — the third fewest in the league. A big question concerns Taylor, and whether he’ll be Indy’s default weapon inside Pittsburgh’s 5-yard line. Remember, Taylor’s lost three fumbles in his last five outings. That doesn’t mean he won’t get the ball. But it might mean they’ll try to keep the Steelers guessing.
I like Pierce’s eight targets last week, and how the rookie’s acclimated quickly on a team with two proven stars and the ascending Campbell. At these odds, Pierce is a worthwhile dart throw.
- Anytime TD
(+480) — FanDuel
Kenny Pickett Player Props
A tough matchup for a rookie who’s shown glimpses of excellence alongside the usual first-year growing pains. To win, Pittsburgh likely needs to establish the run, which I realize sounds pretty mundane.
MORE: Steelers vs. Colts Week 12 Preview and Prediction
But he’s gotten sacked 14 times in his last three outings and has had trouble with turnovers. The Colts will be unforgiving if given the opening. I’m sensing a more conservative effort from Pickett, at least for the first half. Two hundred passing yards seems like a long shot.
- Passing yards under 213.5
(-113) — FanDuel
- Passing touchdowns under 1.5
(-240) — DraftKings
Najee Harris Player Props
A fascinating set of props for a bell cow with lofty potential in the right matchup. But facing an elite run defense, Najee Harris might find more room to maneuver through the air. This also assumes a game script where Indy takes an early lead and maintains it throughout.
- Rushing attempts under 17.5
(-105) — DraftKings
- Rushing yards under 63.5
(-115) — DraftKings
- Receptions over 2.5
(-165) — BetMGM
- Receiving yards over 18.5
(-110) — DraftKings