The Indianapolis Colts will face the Detroit Lions in Week 12. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Colts skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 12 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Anthony Richardson, QB
Anthony Richardson returned to the starting role and looked reasonably viable against the Jets. In the win, he completed five of seven passes (71.4%) when blitzed, a big step forward from his 28.1% completion percentage in such spots prior.
Of course, this is a tiny sample. We are also nitpicking the least important part of the fantasy profile.
Since the start of last season, Richardson has more rushing touchdowns than Aaron Jones and the same number (seven) as Lamar Jackson — the man has played 11 games of a possible 28 over that stretch.
The first touchdown last week was a two-yarder where he threw a stiff arm behind the line of scrimmage and plowed into paydirt — nothing we haven’t seen from him in the past, but great to see a lack of hesitation.
Passing very much remains a work in progress, and that’s going to prevent me from ranking Richardson as a top-12 option. But his skill set keeps him in that conversation, especially in a game where Indianapolis is chasing points.
The five highest-scoring QBs against the Lions this season have all run for at least 29 yards, giving Richardson truthers some hope that this is a spike week. We know that we are looking at a boom/bust option with as wide a range of outcomes at the position as anyone in the league.
Jonathan Taylor, RB
The Jets sold out to stop the run last week in an effort to make Anthony Richardson beat them, and it worked — kind of.
They slowed Jonathan Taylor and held the former All-Pro to just 57 yards on 24 carries (2.4 yards per attempt), but they did end up losing the game. I think this approach could be one that is utilized against Indy moving forward, but maybe not in this spot where the Lions will want to prevent the Colts from matching their chunk plays.
When it comes to Taylor, the change under center off of Joe Flacco should have you encouraged.
With Anthony Richardson on the field:
- 3.4% production over expectation
- 41.7% conversion rate on rushes
Without Richardson on the field:
- 27.2% production below expectation
- 12.5% conversion rate on rushes
Taylor is going to have to produce like a star if the Colts are going to keep this game tight, and I think they give him every chance to do so.
Alec Pierce, WR
That’s now consecutive games from Alec Pierce with at least 70 receiving yards, the first time he’s done that since October 2022. Pierce’s skill set doesn’t translate as a stable one week over week, but if Indianapolis is going to stay competitive in this spot, it’s because Anthony Richardson is picking on a Lions secondary that allows the third-most WR receptions of 15+ yards per game (4.6).
Josh Downs, Michael Pittman Jr., and Adonai Mitchell could be the recipients of those looks. As could the father of three who is sitting in the fifth row.
Or it could be Pierce again. He’s among the five most matchup-dependent plays in the sport — not his matchup, yours.
If your matchup is expected to come down to the wire, I’d look elsewhere. But not all weeks are like that. If you’re in chase mode (be it record, total points for a tiebreaker, etc.), this is exactly the type of dice you should be rolling.
I have Pierce ranked as my third Colts receiver and prefer Noah Brown and Xavier Worthy if we are looking at big-play threats. Still, there’s no denying that there is an upside in Pierce’s profile that could land him as a WR2 this weekend.
Josh Downs, WR
Josh Downs was able to pay off your loyalty last week, but be careful in assuming that the Anthony Richardson version of this offense puts any receiver in a position to be consistent. Downs produced last week in part because he pulled down a 31-yard pass on the first drive, an open window that Richardson nearly missed. The limitations under center are impossible to ignore and they project to give Downs an issue sooner rather than later:
- Week 8 at Houston Texans: 14.5 expected PPR points
- Week 9 at Minnesota Vikings: 14.5 expected PPR points
- Week 10 vs. Buffalo Bills: 18.8 expected PPR points
- Week 11 at New York Jets: 8.4 expected PPR points
That’s a significant dip, and while the actual box score didn’t reflect the change, proceed with caution against the best defense when it comes to defending red-zone passes (51.4 passer rating). Downs is my WR26 this week, a viable Flex play but not the star that he looked like under Joe Flacco.
Michael Pittman Jr., WR
The vibes around Indianapolis are better today than they were this time last week. Anthony Richardson showed signs of life in a tough spot against the Jets. Now, that didn’t mean big numbers for Michael Pittman Jr., but he did see eight targets. That’s at least a step in the right direction.
Production with Anthony Richardson, 2024:
- 27.2% below expectation
- 1.17 PPR points per target
Production with Joe Flacco, 2024:
- 3.6% below expectation
- 1.69 PPR points per target
I still prefer Pittman with Flacco under center and believe that he has been passed by Josh Downs as the WR1 in this offense. That said, I’m leaving the light on when it comes to a potential return to Flex value with time.
He could get there this week with Indy likely playing from behind, but I have my eyes more set on the finishing kick to the season (Titans/Giants in Weeks 16-17 with a bonus of the Jaguars in Week 18 if your league extends that deep).
We can circle back to Pittman this time next week should he see another eight targets this weekend. If Richardson is close to league-average as a passer on Sunday, I’ll be considering Pittman as a viable Flex option next week at New England.