The Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs is upon us, which means only a handful of games remain in the season — leaving us limited time to find value in fantasy football and NFL betting. As we continue our tour around the Divisional Round while examining individual player values for prop bets and DFS, let’s see if Clyde Edwards-Helaire provides value.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s DFS value vs. Bills
The Chiefs’ backfield has been an issue for fantasy this season. At the center of this has been second-year RB Edwards-Helaire. Let’s be honest, he never really should have been a first-round pick, but when you win the Super Bowl, you get to take a few more risks than other teams.
The issue for CEH has been availability. After playing in 13 regular-season games last year, he appeared in just 10 this season and even missed last week’s Wild Card game against the Steelers. Edwards-Helaire last played in Week 16 and dealt with a shoulder injury.
CEH should return to action in the Divisional Round
According to James Palmer of NFL Network, the current expectation is CEH should not be on a snap count and will not carry an injury designation against the Bills. With Darrel Williams managing a toe injury, this is a much-needed addition to the roster.
The problem is Edwards-Helaire’s matchup is brutal. Even at $5,200 on DraftKings (No. 11 priced RB), I am not sure I want him in DFS. The Bills have the No. 1 ranked DVOA defense and are 11th against the rush in EPA. If I start a running back in DFS, I need touchdown upside. That has been the Achilles heel of Edwards-Helaire’s game since entering the NFL.
Of his 40 red-zone carries, including 21 inside the 10-yard line, he has cashed in just 7 times. When they are close, the Chiefs get tricky, using tons of motion and utilizing guys like Travis Kelce with a pop pass as a de facto run play. Then, when adding Jerick McKinnon in the passing game, it further decreases Edwards-Helaire’s value in the most critical parts of the game.
Ideally, I would look toward other RBs in DFS like Elijah Mitchell ($5,800), Devin Singletary ($5,900), or AJ Dillon ($5,100). They have better game scripts and well-defined roles in their offenses.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire prop bets this weekend
Due to the uncertainty of Edwards-Helaire’s game status, sportsbooks have yet to publish prop bets for him or any Chiefs running backs. Once Edwards-Helaire is officially active, we will update this to reflect the current prop bets.
While there is no question Patrick Mahomes drives this offense, the rushing game has been important for Kansas City in the playoffs. They have rushed for over 100 yards in seven consecutive playoff games and need to maintain offensive balance. However, if the defense struggles, which I think they might, the rushing game will be quickly abandoned. When you have a $500 million man under center, you might as well use him, right?