The Cleveland Browns‘ fantasy outlook dives into the volume concerns for RB Jerome Ford, while the Houston Texans‘ preview looks to identify the fantasy football value of WR Noah Brown moving forward.
Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans
- Spread: Texans -2.5
- Total: 42.5
- Browns implied points: 20
- Texans implied points: 22.5
Quarterbacks
C.J. Stroud: The rookie suffered a concussion in the Week 14 loss against the Jets, and the injury forced him to sit out last week. Based on average recovery times this season, it’s more likely than not that Stroud returns this week, just in time to face a physical Browns defense that has been a top-five pressure unit for the entirety of the season.
As good as Stroud has been this season, a light schedule certainly hasn’t hurt. He’s played three strong pass defenses at various points this season, and in those games, he’s completed just 54.3% of his passes with two scores on 94 attempts.
That’s not to say he can’t succeed in this spot, but expecting him to produce his seventh QB1 finish is an optimistic approach. I have him ranked on that fringe, though in a weak week for streaming QBs, I’m not recommending you pivot as much as I am that you keep your expectations in check.
Running Backs
Jerome Ford: Ford is the leader of this backfield (35-22 snap edge over Kareem Hunt in Week 15), but the snaps simply aren’t resulting in much work in the run game.
Despite the RB1 role, Ford has five straight games with 12 carries or less, usage that is tough to count on changing down the stretch.
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That said, he has caught at least three passes in four straight and has earned 5+ targets in four of his past five. Ford struggled last week to the tune of an RB44 finish, but he was RB14-23 in each of his six games prior, and that’s close to the range I rank him this week.
You can Flex Ford, even without access to much of a ceiling. Remember, not every player you start has to have week-winning upside.
Devin Singletary: Am I confident that Singletary repeats his 170-yard performance from last week in this tough matchup? Not even a little bit, but any player getting 30 touches this time of year is worthy of your attention.
This offensive line figures to struggle against this Cleveland front, something that has me betting against efficiency for Singletary in this spot. But with 16 targets over his past four games, he has a few paths to success.
The role appears to be safe (58 snaps while Dare Ogunbowale and Dameon Pierce combined for 19), and that lands him inside my top 30 at the position.
I caution against you reading too much into his big Week 15 (reminder that he followed up his last 100-yard game with three consecutive sub-70-yard games), but you have found yourself a viable Flex option over the likes of Gus Edwards or Brian Robinson.
Dameon Pierce: A promising rookie season seems like forever ago. If you’re still holding out hope for that form to be rediscovered, you’re not paying enough attention.
Pierce has not been a top-50 running back in three of his past four games and can safely be cut loose in all redraft formats.
Wide Receivers
Amari Cooper: By scoring his first touchdown since Week 9, Coop turned in a WR13 finish last week against the Bears, snapping a streak of four straight games finishing outside of the top 30.
Efficiency remains a serious concern (50% catch rate or lower in four of his past five games), but I expect the volume of looks to outweigh that negative, given that 71.9% of yards gained against the Texans come through the air (fifth highest).
Cooper is a low-end WR2 or strong Flex play for me this week, depending on your roster settings.
Elijah Moore: The Flacco to Moore story was a good narrative to build given their shared time together in New York, but it’s not panning out. Moore saw a season-low three targets last week, and while this matchup doesn’t scare me, his role in a low-octane offense does.
Moore is firmly off of my radar when it comes to waiver wire adds to stash on the back end of my roster at this point in the season.
Nico Collins: A bulky calf kept Collins out last week, but I do think he shifts right back into the WR1 role in this offense when he is deemed healthy. How advantageous is that role, you ask?
Over their last eight games, the Browns have seen the opposing WR1 earn 29.2% of the targets. We saw Noah Brown thrive in this role last week, while Tank Dell and Collins did in weeks prior.
I’m not sold that this offense can produce multiple starting WRs in this matchup, but their top receiver figures to get every opportunity, and right now, I’m labeling Collins as that guy!
Noah Brown: The supersized receiver forced overtime last week with a late touchdown and thrived in the WR1 role with Collins out (32.4% target share). In fact, Brown had three more catches than any of his teammates had targets against the Titans, on his way to posting his third top-15 performance in a five-game stretch.
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Of course, he was held without a catch in the two exceptions during that five-game sample size. With Collins expected back, I’m regressing Brown’s role in a significant enough way to land him outside of my top 30 in this tough matchup.
That’s not to say that there isn’t a path to play him. But I’m tempted to look elsewhere in most spots to get myself away from his low floor.
Tight Ends
David Njoku: Acrobatic plays in the end zone, YAC plays down the stretch — Njoku is peaking at the perfect time for fantasy managers. In the five games since Deshaun Watson was ruled out for the remainder of the season, Njoku has vacuumed in 52 targets and looks the part of the top pass catcher in this offense.
The targets are nice, but it is his ability to make those targets count that has elevated close to must-start territory. He has a 30+ yard grab in consecutive games after having one such catch prior this season, showcasing his ability to give balance to this offense.
If you’ve been riding Njoku of late, there are no signs pointing to significant regression coming.
Dalton Schultz: The presumption is that Stroud is back for this game, and while the matchup isn’t ideal, a high-pressure defense can result in a high number of checkdown passes. What better way to welcome a banged-up quarterback than with some easy completions in an offense that struggles to run the ball?
Schultz’s aDOT this season is roughly 30% shorter than that of either primary receiver, per the Week 16 Cheat Sheet, putting him in position to record enough volume to be locked into fantasy lineups. We saw him earn a 29.2% target share against another strong pass defense in the Saints, and usage anywhere near that gives Schultz more of a ceiling than most at the position.
Should You Start Chuba Hubbard or Jerome Ford?
I’m not sure that either back carries much scoring equity, given the limitations of their respective offenses, so give me the running back who figures to have more bites at the apple — that’s Carolina Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard.
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The Panthers have committed to the run — and to Hubbard — for better or worse. I don’t think the banged-up Packers score enough to script them out of that plan, which makes a fourth consecutive 20-carry game very possible for Hubbard. If he reaches that mark or even approaches it, he is the percentage play over a back in Ford, who is struggling to clear 12 carries these days.
Should You Start Tucker Kraft or Dalton Schultz?
I have Schultz a few spots higher with the understanding that C.J. Stroud will be back under center and offer the Texans an offensive floor that Green Bay Packers QB Jordan Love struggles to provide the team with on a consistent basis.
Both are viable plays at the position due to injuries around them and the available target shares, but I simply trust the quality of target heading toward Schultz more than I do for Green Bay TE Tucker Kraft.
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