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    After a Record-Breaking Rookie Season, Can Texans QB C.J. Stroud Reach Top of NFL QB Mountain?

    Texans QB C.J. Stroud delivered one of the best rookie seasons in NFL history. Let's revisit his rookie campaign and examine how he's fared as a sophomore.

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    Entering the 2024 NFL season, all eyes were on Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud to see how he would follow up his historic rookie season.

    The 2023 NFL Draft‘s No. 2 overall pick put together one of the best first-year performances in league history. Stroud posted exceptional stats, and his production translated into wins, leading to one of the most impressive franchise turnarounds in recent memory.

    Let’s revisit Stroud’s terrific rookie season and examine how he’s performing as a sophomore.

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    Revisiting C.J. Stroud’s Historic Rookie Campaign

    As a rookie, Stroud threw for 4,108 yards, 23 touchdowns, and just five interceptions (with a 63.9% completion percentage) while also rushing for 167 yards and three touchdowns. He was named the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year while also earning a Pro Bowl nod and a spot on the PFWA All-Rookie Team. Stroud even finished ninth in NFL MVP voting.

    Stroud’s 4,108 passing yards were the third-most by a rookie behind only Andrew Luck and Justin Herbert, and his 23 passing touchdowns were tied for the sixth-most all-time among rookies. He also led the NFL in both passing yards per game and interception rate, which is something only Tom Brady and Joe Montana have done.

    Stroud’s passer rating (100.8) was the sixth-highest in the NFL last season and the third-highest of any rookie in league history (behind only Dak Prescott and Robert Griffin III).

    In his best game of the season, Stroud threw for 470 yards, five touchdowns (including the game-winner), and zero interceptions in a win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The 470 passing yards were the most of any QB during the 2023 season and broke the rookie single-game record.

    Stroud became just the sixth player in NFL history with at least 450 passing yards, five touchdowns, and zero interceptions in a single game.

    Even more remarkable is Stroud did all of this without a run game (the Texans’ 3.7 yards per carry ranked 29th in the NFL) and behind an offensive line that struggled all year. But perhaps most impressive was how quickly he helped turn around one of the league’s most hapless franchises.

    The Texans had gone a league-worst 11-38-1 in the three seasons prior to Stroud’s arrival. They nearly equaled that win total in one year with a 10-7 record and an AFC South title.

    Stroud and DeMeco Ryans became the first rookie QB and rookie head coach to win a division since the NFL/AFL merger in 1970.

    Then, Stroud helped Houston win its first playoff game since 2019, blowing out the Cleveland Browns 45-14. He threw for 274 yards, three touchdowns (tying the rookie playoff record), and zero interceptions with a 76.2% completion percentage.

    In his NFL postseason debut, Stroud posted the third-highest playoff passer rating of all time (157.2) and became the youngest quarterback in NFL history to win a postseason game.

    How Has Stroud Fared This Season?

    Stroud has been solid as a sophomore, but he has yet to make the significant leap that many hoped to see.

    Through eight games, the Texans’ quarterback has thrown for 1,948 yards, 11 touchdowns, and four interceptions (with a 66.5% completion percentage) while rushing for 84 yards and no scores.

    After posting the NFL’s sixth-best passer rating (100.8) last year, Stroud’s current 95.6 passer rating is 12th in the NFL (minimum four games played).

    Stroud was off to a strong start throughout the first five weeks of the season, averaging 277 passing yards per game. Then, superstar wide receiver Nico Collins suffered a hamstring injury that landed him on injured reserve. Over the last three games without Collins, Stroud’s average has dipped to 187.6 passing yards per game.

    In the last four games that Collins started, over 75% of Houston’s yards came through the air. In the three games he’s missed, just 53.7% of their yards have come via passes.

    Stroud has just 11 deep pass attempts over his last two games. For comparison, in the last two games Collins started, the Houston QB had 11 deep completions.

    While Collins is expected to return in Week 10, the Texans will be without wide receiver Stefon Diggs for the remainder of the season after he suffered a torn ACL in Week 8.

    Despite these injuries, Stroud has led the Texans to a 6-2 start, which is the second-best record in the AFC. He is now 16-9 as a starter, including the playoffs.

    Even though his stats are quite similar to his rookie season, Stroud is still one of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL, and it’s clear that the Texans have found a terrific long-term solution under center.

    What’s Next for C.J. Stroud?

    It’s worth noting that Stroud is still only 22 years old. In fact, he’s currently the NFL’s third-youngest starting quarterback — even younger than Washington Commanders rookie Jayden Daniels, Denver Broncos rookie Bo Nix, and Atlanta Falcons rookie Michael Penix Jr. The only starting QBs younger than Stroud are Chicago Bears rookie Caleb Williams and New England Patriots rookie Drake Maye.

    Stroud was fantastic as a rookie, but he was drafted No. 2 overall in large part due to his long-term potential.

    As PFN’s NFL Draft Analyst Ian Cummings noted in Stroud’s pre-draft scouting report, he still has a lot of room for improvement, which is a scary thought for 31 NFL teams. He consistently progressed year over year throughout high school and college, and he’s expected to do the same in the pros.

    Stroud didn’t enter the league as a finished product, and he should only get better as he gets more experienced and comfortable at the NFL level. Given how impressive he has been throughout the first year and a half of his NFL career, it’s exciting to imagine what Stroud can accomplish once he reaches his prime.

    Houston is lucky to have found a superstar signal-caller through the draft, as one could argue that only three of the 26 quarterbacks drafted from 2021 through 2023 have worked out: Stroud, Trevor Lawrence, and Brock Purdy.

    Stroud is clearly a franchise quarterback and someone the Texans will be building around for many years to come. And in Collins and Tank Dell, he has a pair of talented 25-year-old wide receivers to grow with, which is huge for his development and upside.

    Given Stroud’s age, early production, team success, and young weapons, the sky is the limit for him going forward.

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