The Carolina Panthers drafted their RB1 of the future in Jonathon Brooks. But until Brooks gets back on the field as he recovers from a torn ACL, Chuba Hubbard remains entrenched as the lead back.
In a tough matchup against a solid Saints run defense, should fantasy football managers start Hubbard in Week 1?
Should I Start or Sit Chuba Hubbard in Fantasy this Week?
Hubbard is a very tricky one this week. After opening last season behind Miles Sanders, Hubbard unsurprisingly wrested away the starting job from the free agent signing. By the end of the season, Hubbard was playing over 70% of the snaps in most games.
While Hubbard had a couple of big weeks (20+ points), he was mostly in the 11-12-point range. In fact, he scored between 11.1 and 12.3 fantasy points in his final five games to close out the 2023 season.
This year, Hubbard’s time as the lead back is on a clock. Eventually, Brooks is going to take over, and it remains to be seen what Hubbard’s role will look like then.
For now, though, we should expect this backfield to look very much like it did over the second half of last season.
From Week 13 onward, Hubbard saw 20+ carries in four of his final six games. His usage was good enough for RB1 numbers if only he were able to find the end zone. That was his primary issue.
This season, the Panthers have a new head coach, a better WR1 in Diontae Johnson, and hopefully Bryce Young will take a step forward. All of this could lead to a better-than-expected outing from Hubbard.
Fantasy Outlook for Hubbard vs. Saints
The concern here is the Saints were one of the tougher opponents last season, allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs.
With a 41.5 total, this game projects to be one of the lowest-scoring matchups on the slate. We could see an ugly, low-scoring, slow-paced game with a lot of punts. That’s not exactly an offensive environment where running backs thrive.
A bet on Hubbard is a bet on volume. In games where Hubbard played at least 50% of the snaps, he averaged 18.1 opportunities per game. There aren’t many running backs seeing that level of predictable usage.
To give you an idea of Hubbard’s projection for this week, his combined rushing and receiving yards line on DraftKings is 71.5. By way of comparison, Derrick Henry is at 76.5.
We can reasonably expect similar volume. The primary differentiator from a fantasy perspective is the likelihood of scoring. Hubbard is far less likely to find the end zone than Henry.
Hubbard’s ranking amongst PFN Fantasy Analysts is largely in the low-RB3 range.
In shallow leagues, you probably don’t need to force Hubbard into your lineup. In leagues where you can start at least six total running backs and wide receivers, there’s a very compelling case to find a spot for Hubbard.
If you drafted Hubbard, I have to assume you did so because you intend to use him early. You know he’s on borrowed time.
Take advantage of the weeks in which Hubbard is the clear lead back. I would consider him a very viable Flex play in Week 1.
Kyle Soppe’s Fantasy Outlook for Hubbard in Week 1
Jonathon Brooks was officially placed on PUP after the preseason ended, and that gives Hubbard some utility early on — emphasis on “some.”
Hubbard was featured in this underwhelming offense a season ago, and despite playing in every game, he turned that strong volume into just three finishes better than RB18.
If that’s his ceiling, is the chasing of volume even worth it against the best defense in terms of success rate against the run? I have Brian Robinson Jr. and Tony Pollard, two running backs not promised high-end volume, ranked higher for Week 1 thanks to an expected edge in efficiency and/or overall game environment.
Hubbard checks in as a fringe Flex option for me. He offers a level of safety that a Jameson Williams or Christian Watson does not, but he’s going to have to do better than the 0.66 points per touch he gave us last season, which was third-worst among qualified backs.
Alvin Kamara: I’m largely out on Kamara this season. He’s pretty clearly past the peak of his powers, and while the pass-catching is still an asset, his ability to do anything else has me worried from a consistency perspective.
READ MORE: Soppe’s Fantasy Football RB Busts for 2024
Yards per carry (carries per rushing TD):
- 2017: 6.1 YPC (TD every 15 carries)
- 2018: 4.6 YPC (TD every 13.9 carries)
- 2019: 4.7 YPC (TD every 34.2 carries)
- 2020: 5.0 YPC (TD every 11.7 carries)
- 2021: 3.7 YPC (TD every 60 carries)
- 2022: 4.0 YPC (TD every 111.5 carries)
- 2023: 3.9 YPC (TD every 36 carries)
That said, I’m fine with deploying him in this spot, and maybe using a big game as an excuse to move on from him. The Panthers allowed a touchdown on just under 5% of running back carries a season ago, easily the highest rate in the league. It’s a number so high that it could prevent Kamara’s seemingly inevitable regression.
Carolina also blitzed at the fifth-highest rate last season, and we all know that Carr doesn’t need an excuse to use his safety valve.
Kamara was unable to exploit this matchup last season, but I’m not worried about the predictive powers of that. I have him ranked as a starter in all spots this week.
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