Unfortunately, the Green Bay Packers lost their starting quarterback to an injury at the end of the game in Brazil, where they faced the Philadelphia Eagles. With this loss at quarterback, we now have questions surrounding the wide receivers, particularly Christian Watson and Jayden Reed. Both players can break open the game, but we must analyze their stats to see which player has the better chance with Malik Willis under center.
Which WR Should You Choose From Christian Watson and Jayden Reed in Week 2?
Even with the injury, Reed must be the play for your fantasy football team. Benching one of the top performers from Week 1 would be an outrageous stance in Week 2. In the Pro Football Network Start/Sit Optimizer, PFN’s Consensus Rankings say that Reed is the player to start. Reed is projected to score 1.1 more fantasy points and finish with 9.7 total points on the day with a stat line of 2.88 receptions and 35.7 receiving yards.
Be cautious starting either wide receiver, as the loss of Love will make it hard to project any of the Packers players. If you have a better option, start that player over any Packers receivers against the Indianapolis Colts.
Watson’s Fantasy Outlook This Week
We must be concerned with Watson’s fantasy outlook in Week 2 as his Week 1 performance left much to be desired for his fantasy value. Watson produced 13 yards in his first game of the season. After a summer of positive news around healing his hamstring, we expected more from the veteran wide receiver.
Although he only had 13 yards, we must realize he had the chance to play on the field. He tied Reed for route runs with 27, which was the 66th best, according to TruMedia. He also received only one less target than Reed.
4. WR Christian Watson (GB): He was outplayed by Jayden Reed. Watson finished with just 13 yards and a TD. However, there was a lot to be encouraged by. QB Jordan Love is targeted Watson heavily in the redzone, just missing on a 2nd TD. Big games incoming! pic.twitter.com/m6INMSvL1d
— Joshua Cho (@jbchoknows) September 7, 2024
This equal share of the pie shows that the Packers believe both of their wide receivers add something to their game script that is necessary for them to win the game. At 6’5″ and 208 pounds, Watson has incredible athletics that can help elevate the Packers’ offense on every play. He should be an outstanding wide receiver, yet something is missing from his game. Perhaps it’s because Watson struggles to utilize his biggest asset, size, to his advantage.
Reed’s Fantasy Outlook This Week
On the other hand, Reed utilizes every ounce of his talent on the field. Although, as we said earlier, Reed only ran 27 routes, he produced the most receiving yards of the week with 138. His big-play ability shined as he had the second-highest yards per reception (34.5) and the eighth-highest air yards per target (17.33).
The issue for Reed is the plethora of talent, making it hard for Reed to enter into any two-wide receiver packages, which tend to lean toward Watson and Romeo Doubbs. Associated Press sports writer Steve Megargee also announced that Reed is questionable due to a calf/shin injury. This injury could hamper his athletic ability, which led to a 70+ yard receiving touchdown and a 30+ yard rushing touchdown in Week 1.
Kyle Soppe’s Fantasy Outlook for Watson and Reed
Jayden Reed: Reed is averaging 19.1 PPR points per game over his past nine contests, a mark that would have been WR6 last season between Justin Jefferson and Puka Nacua. He also reached 15 PPR points in eight of those contests.
This kid is the real deal and is deserving of the WR1 label for the Packers. He’s a WR2 for fantasy purposes despite a WR3 ADP this summer.
As bullish as I am on the skill set (he looked a lot like Green Bay’s version of Rashee Rice or Zay Flowers in Week 1), the fact of the matter is that we don’t know what this offense is going to look like with Willis under center.
My gut reaction is to assume that the structure of this offense still slants in favor of Reed over his teammates in terms of target hierarchy, but I’m far less confident entering this week than I was entering the season. I’m also less confident, obviously, in the value of those looks.
The Colts allowed 25+ fantasy points to a WR1 five times last season, a sign that they struggle to stop top options. I hate to say it, but for the time being, I’m treating Reed in a similar fashion as Diontae Johnson – a player whose raw talent ranks higher than his projection. He is currently outside of my starting tier at the position.
Like Love, don’t make any rash decisions here. You want to hold onto a player like this. If you don’t roster Reed, you might be able to lowball a trade offer to improve your overall depth.
Amon-Ra St. Brown’s breakout at the end of his rookie season (Weeks 13-18):
- 26.6% points over expectation, 2.07 FP/target, 65% slot
Reed down the stretch of his rookie season (Weeks 11-18):
- 33.7% points over expectation, 1.99 FP/target, 66% slot
Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and Dontayvion Wicks: Doubs was the first Packer with multiple catches in the Week 1 loss, and he led the receiver room in routes with 33. Watson had 27, and Wicks had 16. Watson saw three end-zone targets against the Eagles, while Wicks was consistently used in two-receiver sets.
The point is that we didn’t learn nearly enough to incorporate any of these options into the starting lineup conversation. That would have been my take if Love was under center, and, of course, with him sidelined, I only feel stronger about that label.
Keep an eye on target share and formations this weekend. Maybe this offense will be retooled in such a way that one of these talented options is in an advantageous spot with Willis taking snaps.
Maybe.
Even if you believe this occurs, you’re taking this week off to evaluate.